‘The only good jihadist is a dead jihadist’:Boko Haram and de-radicalization around Lake Chad

ABSTRACT

This article discusses the shortcomings of the “de-radicalization doctrine” in sub-Saharan Africa. The issues raised are illustrated by the war against Boko Haram, which involves Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. Relying on interviews with security officers, insurgents, civil servants, displaced people, humanitarian workers and Muslim and Christian clerics in Nigeria, Niger and Chad since 2005, the investigation shows that the four states focused on repression rather than demobilisation programs in prison or outdoors. The Boko Haram crisis is mainly a story of mismanagement. The article thus challenges the assumptions of the “de-radicalization doctrine” in Muslim Africa South of the Sahara. First, attempts to de-radicalize jihadi terrorists tend to focus too much on religious fanaticism and the exegesis of the Quran. Secondly, they are neither feasible nor efficient. Finally, they obscure priorities that are more important to counter extremism and demobilize insurgents.     

Optimal selection with alternative information

This article examines the problem of optimally selecting from several unknown rewards when there are given alternative, costly sources of information. The optimal rule, indicating the information to be purchased and the reward to be selected, is specified as a function of the decision maker's prior probabilities regarding the value of each alternative. The rule is surprisingly complex, balancing prior beliefs, the “informativeness” of the relevant information system, and the cost of acquiring information.     

Book Reviews

The Mini-Nuke Conspiracy by Peter Hounam and Steve McQuillan, London: Faber and Faber, (1995)

The Amateur Strategist: Intuitive Deterrence Theories and the Politics of the Nuclear Arms Race By James DeNardo, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (1995), (pbk) ISBN 0-521-48446-4

After Empire: The Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia By Jed C. Snyder (ed.), Washington DC: National Defense University Press, (1995), 235 pp., ISBN 0-16-051682-x.     

Estimating critical path and arc probabilities in stochastic activity networks

This article describes a new procedure for estimating parameters of a stochastic activity network of N arcs. The parameters include the probability that path m is the longest path, the probability that path m is the shortest path, the probability that arc i is on the longest path, and the probability that arc i is on the shortest path. The proposed procedure uses quasirandom points together with information on a cutset ? of the network to produce an upper bound of O[(log K)^N?|?|+1/K] on the absolute error of approximation, where K denotes the number of replications. This is a deterministic bound and is more favorable than the convergence rate of 1/K^1/2 that one obtains from the standard error for K independent replications using random sampling. It is also shown how series reduction can improve the convergence rate by reducing the exponent on log K. The technique is illustrated using a Monte Carlo sampling experiment for a network of 16 relevant arcs with a cutset of ? = 7 arcs. The illustration shows the superior performance of using quasirandom points with a cutset (plan A) and the even better performance of using quasirandom points with the cutset together with series reduction (plan B) with regard to mean square error. However, it also shows that computation time considerations favor plan A when K is small and plan B when K is large.     

A Cryptographic Escrow for Treaty Declarations and Step-by-Step Verification

The verification of arms-control and disarmament agreements requires states to provide declarations, including information on sensitive military sites and assets. There are important cases, however, in which negotiations of these agreements are impeded because states are reluctant to provide any such data, because of concerns about prematurely handing over militarily significant information. To address this challenge, we present a cryptographic escrow that allows a state to make a complete declaration of sites and assets at the outset and commit to its content, but only reveal the sensitive information therein sequentially. Combined with an inspection regime, our escrow allows for step-by-step verification of the correctness and completeness of the initial declaration so that the information release and inspections keep pace with parallel diplomatic and political processes. We apply this approach to the possible denuclearization of North Korea. Such approach can be applied, however, to any agreement requiring the sharing of sensitive information.     

The FARC’s militaristic blueprint

This article intends to explain the outstanding sequence of success and failure exhibited by the FARC, the main Colombian guerrilla since the 1980s. It claims that such sequence is unintelligible unless the adoption by the FARC of a militaristic organizational blueprint at its 1982 7^th Conference is taken into account. By building itself like an army, the FARC could boost its combat capacity, maintain its structural integrity, and develop powerful mechanisms that held the whole structure together. At the same time, the militarization of the FARC also entailed significant risks and costs like political isolation and high personnel turnover. After describing the militaristic blueprint, the article compares the FARC with other irregular forces that operated in the Colombian context – a comparison which is important to understand the specificity of the FARC trajectory, as well as the benefits and costs involved in it. The analysis highlights the critical role of organizational dimensions in the explanation of civil war outcomes, and suggests that at least for some problems organizational dynamics should be observed at a low level of granularity.     

Arming China: Major powers’ arms transfers to the People’s Republic of China

The rise of China has been fuelled by a massive military modernisation programme relying, in large part, on the acquisition of foreign military equipment. The question of how the world’s major powers define their arms transfer policies towards China is therefore crucially important. This article makes two original contributions. First, drawing on neoclassical realism, it proposes an explanatory framework integrating international and domestic factors to explain variations in major powers’ arms transfers. Second, based on a large body of elite interviews and diplomatic cables, it offers the first comprehensive comparison of American, British, French and Russian arms transfer policies towards China since the end of the Cold War.     

Sweden and the issue of NATO membership: exploring a public opinion paradox

The past decade has seen substantial shifts in Swedish security policy and major change in the domestic debate about NATO. For the first time, all of the right-of-centre “alliance parties” are calling for a full NATO membership, and popular support for NATO has increased. Yet public opinion contains ambiguities and paradoxes that complicate the picture. At the same time as support for NATO has increased, the public is overwhelmingly for continued military non-alignment. Drawing on previous research, longitudinal data from national surveys, and other sources on defence and security issues, this article aims to increase our understanding of the development and change in Swedish public opinion on NATO. A key argument is that Erving Goffman’s theatre metaphor, combined with neo-institutional decoupling theory, to a large degree can help understand the public opinion paradox.