Order-statistic calculation,costs, and service in an (s,Q) inventory system

A retailer or distributor of finished goods, or the manager of a spare-parts inventory system, must generally forecast the major portion of demand. A specific customer-service level p (fraction of replenishment intervals with no stockout) implies two challenges: achieve the service within a small interval plus or minus, and do so with a minimum-cost investment in inventory. The pth fractile of lead-time demand (LTD) is the reorder point (ROP) for this service measure, and is often approximated by that fractile of a normal distribution. With this procedure, it is easy to set safety stocks for an (s, Q) inventory system. However, Bookbinder and Lordahl [2] and others have identified cases where the normal approximation yields excessive costs and/or lower service than desired. This article employs an order-statistic approach. Using available LTD data, the ROP is simply estimated from one or two of the larger values in the sample. This approach is sufficiently automatic and intuitive for routine implementation in industry, yet is distribution free. The order-statistic method requires only a small amount of LTD data, and makes no assumptions on the form of the underlying LTD distribution, nor even its parameters μ and ρ. We compare the order-statistic approach and the normal approximation, first in terms of customer service and then using a model of expected annual cost. Based upon characteristics of the available LTD data, we suggest a procedure to aid a practitioner in choosine between the normal and order-statistic method. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Heuristic procedure for a multiproduct dynamic lot-sizing problem with coordinated replenishments

In this article we develop a heuristic procedure for a multiproduct dynamic lot-sizing problem. In this problem a joint setup cost is incurred when at least one product is ordered in a period. In addition to the joint setup cost a separate setup cost for each product ordered is also incurred. The objective is to determine the product lot sizes, over a finite planning horizon, that will minimize the total relevant cost such that the demand in each period for each product is satisfied without backlogging. In this article we present an effective heuristic procedure for this problem. Computational results for the heuristic procedure are also reported. Our computational experience leads us to conclude that the heuristic procedure may be of considerable value as a decision-making aid to production planners in a real-world setting. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimal replacement policies for multistate deteriorating systems

We consider state-age-dependent replacement policies for a multistate deteriorating system. We assume that operating cost rates and replacement costs are both functions of the underlying states. Replacement times and sojourn times in different states are all state-dependent random variables. The optimization criterion is to minimize the expected long-run cost rate. A policy-improvement algorithm to derive the optimal policy is presented. We show that under reasonable assumptions, the optimal replacement policies have monotonic properties. In particular, when the failure-rate functions are nonincreasing, or when all the replacement costs and the expected replacement times are independent of state, we show that the optimal policies are only state dependent. Examples are given to illustrate the structure of the optimal policies in the special case when the sojourntime distributions are Weibull. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Initial point search on weighted trees

An initial point search game on a weighted graph involves a searcher who wants to minimize search and travel costs seeking a hider who wants to maximize these costs. The searcher starts from a specified vertex 0 and searches each vertex in some order. The hider chooses a nonzero vertex and remains there. We solve the game in which the graph is a simple tree, and use this solution to solve a search game on a tree in which each branch is itself a weighted graph with a certain property, and the searcher is obliged to search the entire branch before departing. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On the (S − 1, S) lost sales inventory model with priority demand classes

In this paper an inventory model with several demand classes, prioritised according to importance, is analysed. We consider a lot‐for‐lot or (S ? 1, S) inventory model with lost sales. For each demand class there is a critical stock level at and below which demand from that class is not satisfied from stock on hand. In this way stock is retained to meet demand from higher priority demand classes. A set of such critical levels determines the stocking policy. For Poisson demand and a generally distributed lead time, we derive expressions for the service levels for each demand class and the average total cost per unit time. Efficient solution methods for obtaining optimal policies, with and without service level constraints, are presented. Numerical experiments in which the solution methods are tested demonstrate that significant cost reductions can be achieved by distinguishing between demand classes. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 593–610, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10032     

Influences on threat assessment in a military context

The anchoring effect is a well-studied subject. This article connects the effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution. Particularly the rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or hers starting point from recently conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. The threat assessment as well as the written assessment were affected. The results show that officers have an aversion to lower a previous given threat assessment. This gives that to understand risk assessment we not only need to understand the methods used, we also need to understand the institutions in which they are used. This is especially relevant for military intelligence as the assessments are conducted in an environment of high uncertainty.     

Defence industrial policy – a sound security strategy or an economic fallacy?

This article explores whether it makes sense for national governments to employ defence industrial policies – such as offsets and discriminatory procurement practices – to support their domestic defence industries. This question has so far primarily been discussed by economists, who have argued strongly against the use of defence industrial policies. This article maintains that these economists fail to address the often complex motivation behind the introduction of these policies. It illustrates these shortcomings by contrasting their arguments against a case study of Norway, which accounts for the country’s use of defence industrial polices from the early post-Second World War era up until today. The article concludes that, depending on their objectives, defence industrial policies can be seen as either a sound security strategy or an economic fallacy.     

The value of losing control: Competition in markets for complements

When selling complementary products, manufacturers can often benefit from considering the resulting cross‐market interdependencies. Although using independent retailers makes it difficult to internalize these positive externalities, the ensuing double marginalization can mitigate within‐market competition. We use standard game theoretic analysis to determine optimal distribution channel strategies (through independent retailers or integrated) for competing manufacturers who participate in markets for complements. Our results suggest that a firm's optimal channel choice is highly dependent on its competitive positioning. A firm with a competitive advantage in terms of product characteristics (customer preferences) or production capabilities (cost) might benefit from selling through company‐controlled stores, allowing coordinated pricing across the two markets, whereas a less competitive firm might be better off using independent channel intermediaries to mitigate price competition. We consider two scenarios depending on whether the two firms make their distribution channel decisions sequentially or simultaneously. Although firms are unlikely to make such decisions at exactly the same instant, the simultaneous model also serves as a proxy for the scenario where firms decide sequentially, but where they cannot observe each other's strategic channel choices. For the sequential case, we find that the sequence of entry can have tremendous impact on the two firms'profits; whereas in some cases, the first mover can achieve substantially higher profits, we find that when the two markets are of sufficiently different size and only loosely related, a firm with a competitive advantage might be better off as a follower. Interestingly, our results suggest that, when the markets are of rather similar size, both firms are better off if they enter the industry sequentially. In those cases, the first entrant has incentive to reveal its planned channel strategies, and the follower has incentive to seek out and consider this information. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Strategic capacity decision‐making in a stochastic manufacturing environment using real‐time approximate dynamic programming

In this study, we illustrate a real‐time approximate dynamic programming (RTADP) method for solving multistage capacity decision problems in a stochastic manufacturing environment, by using an exemplary three‐stage manufacturing system with recycle. The system is a moderate size queuing network, which experiences stochastic variations in demand and product yield. The dynamic capacity decision problem is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP). The proposed RTADP method starts with a set of heuristics and learns a superior quality solution by interacting with the stochastic system via simulation. The curse‐of‐dimensionality associated with DP methods is alleviated by the adoption of several notions including “evolving set of relevant states,” for which the value function table is built and updated, “adaptive action set” for keeping track of attractive action candidates, and “nonparametric k nearest neighbor averager” for value function approximation. The performance of the learned solution is evaluated against (1) an “ideal” solution derived using a mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation, which assumes full knowledge of future realized values of the stochastic variables (2) a myopic heuristic solution, and (3) a sample path based rolling horizon MIP solution. The policy learned through the RTADP method turned out to be superior to polices of 2 and 3. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

Repression Substitution: Shifting Human Rights Violations in Response to UN Naming and Shaming

Does the United Nations naming and shaming of specific violations of human rights decrease government repression? In this article, we argue that international shaming of specific human rights violations can weaken the target government, bringing new challenges and making the government cessation of repression less feasible. When international naming and shaming campaigns target specific repressive tactics, they increase the costs of some – but not all – means of repression. Using original data on naming and shaming by the United Nations Human Rights Council (HRC), we show that the shaming of one physical integrity violation is jointly associated with decreases in that violation and increases in other violations of human rights.