Northwest corner and banded matrix approximations to a Markov chain

In this paper, we consider approximations to discrete time Markov chains with countably infinite state spaces. We provide a simple, direct proof for the convergence of certain probabilistic quantities when one uses a northwest corner or a banded matrix approximation to the original probability transition matrix. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 187–197, 1999     

Planning accelerated life tests for censored two‐parameter exponential distributions

We consider optimal test plans involving life distributions with failure‐free life, i.e., where there is an unknown threshold parameter below which no failure will occur. These distributions do not satisfy the regularity conditions and thus the usual approach of using the Fisher information matrix to obtain an optimal accelerated life testing (ALT) plan cannot be applied. In this paper, we assume that lifetime follows a two‐parameter exponential distribution and the stress‐life relationship is given by the inverse power law model. Near‐optimal test plans for constant‐stress ALT under both failure‐censoring and time‐censoring are obtained. We first obtain unbiased estimates for the parameters and give the approximate variance of these estimates for both failure‐censored and time‐censored data. Using these results, the variance for the approximate unbiased estimate of a percentile at a design stress is computed and then minimized to produce the near‐optimal plan. Finally, a numerical example is presented together with simulation results to study the accuracy of the approximate variance given by the proposed plan and show that it outperforms the equal‐allocation plan. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 169–186, 1999     

Counterinsurgency as armed reform: The political history of the Malayan Emergency

Despite the emphasis in doctrine and academia that counterinsurgency is in its essence political, these operations are all too commonly discussed and approached as primarily military endeavors. Informed by the need to refocus counterinsurgency studies, this article revisits a foundational case of the canon – the Malayan Emergency – to discuss its political (i.e., not military) unfolding. The analysis distinguishes itself by emphasizing the diplomatic processes, negotiations, and deals that gave strategic meaning to the military operations underway. In so doing, the article also generates insight on the use of leverage and elite bargains in creating new political settlements and bringing insurgent conflicts to an end.     

A Cryptographic Escrow for Treaty Declarations and Step-by-Step Verification

The verification of arms-control and disarmament agreements requires states to provide declarations, including information on sensitive military sites and assets. There are important cases, however, in which negotiations of these agreements are impeded because states are reluctant to provide any such data, because of concerns about prematurely handing over militarily significant information. To address this challenge, we present a cryptographic escrow that allows a state to make a complete declaration of sites and assets at the outset and commit to its content, but only reveal the sensitive information therein sequentially. Combined with an inspection regime, our escrow allows for step-by-step verification of the correctness and completeness of the initial declaration so that the information release and inspections keep pace with parallel diplomatic and political processes. We apply this approach to the possible denuclearization of North Korea. Such approach can be applied, however, to any agreement requiring the sharing of sensitive information.     

Some new results on the preservation of the NBUE and NWUE aging classes under the formation of coherent systems

We consider the classical problem of whether certain classes of lifetime distributions are preserved under the formation of coherent systems. Under the assumption of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes, we consider the NBUE (new better than used in expectation) and NWUE (new worse than used in expectation) classes. First, a necessary condition for a coherent system to preserve the NBUE class is given. Sufficient conditions are then obtained for systems satisfying this necessary condition. The sufficient conditions are satisfied for a collection of systems which includes all parallel systems, but the collection is shown to be strictly larger. We also prove that no coherent system preserves the NWUE class. As byproducts of our study, we obtain the following results for the case of i.i.d. component lifetimes: (a) the DFR (decreasing failure rate) class is preserved by no coherent systems other than series systems, and (b) the IMRL (increasing mean residual life) class is not preserved by any coherent systems. Generalizations to the case of dependent component lifetimes are briefly discussed.     

The Illusion of Afghanistan’s Electoral Representative Democracy: The Cases of Afghan Presidential and National Legislative Elections

This article is the latest in a series of published articles systematically examining Afghan Presidential and legislative elections. Structural problems including fraud, ethno-linguistic block voting, and the Single Non-Transferable Vote have had significant impacts on the development of Afghan democratic elections. The challenge now facing the current Afghan government and future elections is the daunting task of uniting the Afghan people while not repeating the electoral mistakes of the past. The tricky balancing act of fostering an overarching national identity without being perceived as privileging particular identities requires strong leadership and a willingness to challenge traditional ethnic, linguistic, and religious norms when need be. Karzai and Ghani Administrations have seriously failed relative to this dynamic.     

On the design of a tandem queue with blocking: Modeling,analysis, and gradient estimation

We demonstrate here how recent advances in the study of discrete-event stochastic systems provide fruitful results for the modeling, analysis, and design of manufacturing systems. We consider a multistage make-to-stock system where outputs from the final stage are used to satisfy customer demands. We address the problem of finding the appropriate trade-off between reduced order waiting time and increased process speeds. Using the idea of infinitesimal perturbation analysis (IPA), we establish a simple procedure where sample-path derivatives can be obtained along an arbitrary sample path. Under suitable conditions, we demonstrate that these derivative estimators are unbiased and strongly consistent and can be used in a classical stochastic optimization scheme to solve the problem. The role of continuity and convexity on the validity of the estimator is also addressed. Although the focus of this article is not to solve for the optimal solution, we provide a theoretical justification for such a pursuit. The approach is appealing as it is numerically stable, easy to implement, and can be extended to other system performance measures. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A network reformulation of an electric utility expansion planning model

We reformulate a multiperiod capacity expansion model of electric utilities as a network model. We show how to reconstruct the dual solution of the original mathematical program from the network model solution. To formulate the network model, we use information about the properties of the optimal solution of the mathematical program to reduce the number of constraints. The remaining constraints are then readily converted into network constraints. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons. Inc.     

An asymptotically optimal greedy heuristic for the multiperiod single‐sourcing problem: The cyclic case

The dynamics of the environment in which supply chains evolve requires that companies frequently redesign their logistics distribution networks. In this paper we address a multiperiod single‐sourcing problem that can be used as a strategic tool for evaluating the costs of logistics network designs in a dynamic environment. The distribution networks that we consider consist of a set of production and storage facilities, and a set of customers who do not hold inventories. The facilities face production capacities, and each customer's demand needs to be delivered by a single facility in each period. We deal with the assignment of customers to facilities, as well as the location, timing, and size of inventories. In addition, to mitigate start and end‐of‐study effects, we view the planning period as a typical future one, which will repeat itself. This leads to a cyclic model, in which starting and ending inventories are equal. Based on an assignment formulation of the problem, we propose a greedy heuristic, and prove that this greedy heuristic is asymptotically feasible and optimal in a probabilistic sense. We illustrate the behavior of the greedy heuristic, as well as some improvements where the greedy heuristic is used as the starting point of a local interchange procedure, on a set of randomly generated test problems. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 412–437, 2003