An error components model of cost overruns and schedule slip on army R&D programs

What has been causing cost overruns and schedule slippages in Army major weapon-system R&D programs during the past ten years? This article addresses this question with emphasis on the effectiveness of an Army acquisition strategy entitled Total Risk Assessing Cost Estimating (TRACE). An empirical study employed a questionnaire and interviews with key personnel from all of the major Army Program Management Offices involved with R&D. The major research question was the following: What explanatory variables have been affecting R&D cost overruns and development time? This includes an evaluation of TRACE as a potential explanatory variable. Data was collected and analyzed using an error components multiple regression model. The major explanatory variables that appeared to explain cost overruns were technological risk of the program, education and experience of key program management office personnel, and the degree of “buy in” by the prime contractor. Strong statistical results indicate that TRACE is having little or no effect on cost overruns. In the case of development time, the major explanatory variables were seen to be technological risk of the program, testing, TRACE, education, and length of the R&D contract.     

Computer software development: Quality attributes,measurements, and metrics

Software metrics try to identify, define, and assign various indices of merit that can support the quantitative comparisons and evaluations of software in all phases of its life cycle. This article is a state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice review of literature related to software quality measurements and metrics.     

Multiperiod allocation of limited resources: A minimax approach

We consider a multiperiod model in which limited resources are allocated among competing activities in each period. The objective is to minimize the maximum weighted deviation of the cumulative activity levels from the cumulative demands among all activities at all periods. All resources are assumed to be storable; that is, surpluses at one period can be used later on. This model is useful, for example, in multiperiod production planning for high-technology industries that assemble a large variety of circuit boards using numerous electronic components. The model is formulated with a minimax objective. We develop an efficient algorithm that can solve large-scale problems very quickly. At each iteration, the algorithm makes use of the solution to a relaxed problem to identify activities that should be permanently set to zero, as well as groups of activities that should have the same value.     

Two heuristics for the economic lot scheduling problem: An experimental study

In this article we present and test two heuristics for the economic lot scheduling problem. The first heuristic was developed by one of us (P.C. Geng) during Ph.D. research, while the other is a convergent implementation of an algorithm due to Doll and Whybark. We study the performance of these heuristics on a large set of test problems constructed using a new form of problem generation that yields random problems within an experimental design.     

Utility assessment procedures for polynomial-exponential functions

This article develops a methodology for testing constant exchange risk properties and identifying an appropriate form for a decision maker's utility function. These risk properties characterize six different utility functions which are sums of products of polynomials and exponential functions. Such functional forms are commonly used in decision analysis applications. The practical advantage of this methodology is that these constant exchange risk properties eliminate the usual arbitrariness in the selection of a parametric utility function and often reduce the data requirements for subsequent estimation. The procedure is straightforward to apply. The decision maker need only provide certainty equivalents for two-outcome gambles and determine the more-preferred gamble in paired comparisons. The technical details of the procedure can be handled by interactive computer software.     

An approach for solving discrete alternative multiple criteria problems involving ordinal criteria

The existence of ordinal criteria is a factor that complicates multiple criteria problems. In this article we develop an approach for the problem of choosing among discrete alternatives assuming that criteria are ordinal. The approach requires pairwise comparisons of alternatives by the decision maker. Based on these comparisons, presumably inferior alternatives are eliminated. Experience on randomly generated problems indicates that the approach usually chooses one of the most preferred alternatives and requires a small number of pairwise comparisons.     

Landmarks in defense literature

Strategy, Politics and Defense Budgets. By Warner R. Schilling, Paul Y. Hammond and Glenn H. Snyder. Columbia University Press, New York (1962)