基于ARMA辨识的色噪系统状态参数鲁棒估计

实际环境中观测系统的噪声,同时存在着白噪、色噪声和尖点噪声的影响.已有的研究都仅考虑白噪或色噪声,首次将实际系统中可能出现的所有噪声纳入观测方程,推导出统一的带白噪形式的观测方程.新观测方程在色噪声ARMA辨识基础上,可以直接用于传统的卡尔曼滤波算法,避免了扩维滤波.于是状态参数的稳健估计归结为ARMA参数的辨识.重点研究了自由参数选取与输入噪声之间的关系,将鲁棒支持向量回归机的优化问题转换成最大后验估计问题,为合理选择自由参数提供了理论依据.仿真结果验证了新算法的有效性.     

Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013     

基于循环平稳的卫星信道多普勒频移估计

基于线性调制信号的循环平稳特性,卫星信道多普勒频移的估计可以通过求解发送信号与接收信号的循环相关函数关系得到.借助循环谱函数推导出发送信号的循环相关函数,接收信号的循环相关函数则对信号本身及其有限差分进行计算.仿真结果说明了该算法对信道中的干扰与噪声不敏感,在多普勒频移较大时,该算法具有良好的估计精度;同时该算法还具有低复杂度和应用灵活的特点.     

Hash技术在消防产品信息检索中的应用

讨论了消防产品的身份证管理制度,针对跟踪管理系统中移动终端查询速度较慢的问题,将Hash技术应用到产品信息检索中,并对全国消防产品数据库中采集的数据进行了实验测试.实验结果表明,Hash技术用于移动终端大规模数据的检索具有简单高效的特点.     

通信网络拓扑可靠性的重要度熵评价方法

针对通信网络拓扑可靠性受到多因素影响的问题,提出了一种基于重要度熵的可靠性评价方法。该方法采用介数作为基础重要度指标,依据节点度、距离、最短路径等拓扑特性传播重要度影响,保证了对节点重要度的客观评价。方法选取网络重要度熵为可靠性指标,并通过边收缩将链路重要度转化为节点重要度进行评价,进而计算网络的重要度熵。最后通过仿真,验证了该评价方法的有效性。     

Market entry strategy in the presence of market spillovers and efficiency differentiation

Firms form various alliances or use brand extensions to enter new markets in order to improve their operational efficiency and create a positive spillover. However, they do not always know the implications of these strategies for market entry and multimarket competition because the sale of products in one market can have negative spillover effects on product sales in other markets. We present an analytical framework to examine whether and how (i.e., by choosing alliance entry or independent entry) competing firms should enter a market in a situation where market spillovers occur when a firm enters a spillover-producing market to sell products that may increase or decrease the consumers' willingness to pay for products in the primary market. Our analysis shows that the operational efficiency (or quality differentiation ability) of firms in a spillover-producing market varies, and hence, the impact of market spillovers differs for firms. We identify the key factors, such as bargaining power, brand value difference in the primary market, and the extent of efficiencies and spillovers, that determine the firms benefitting from the different entry strategies. Specifically, we show that firms would be more willing to choose an alliance strategy to enter a spillover-producing market if the negative spillover is small and alliance efficiency is high. In contrast, if an alliance entry is not favored, the firms' relative operational efficiency is crucial for them to decide whether to enter the market independently under moderate spillover conditions. Finally, we show the implications of market entry strategies for managers.     

基于云重心评判的装甲车辆驾驶技能评估方法

针对当前装甲车辆驾驶技能评估方法存在的问题和应用上的不足,将云理论引入装甲车辆驾驶技能评估,提出了基于云重心评判的装甲车辆驾驶技能评估方法。首先建立了云模型表示的指标体系,通过采集实车驾驶数据获取指标值;然后确定指标权重,计算其加权偏离度并将其输入评测的云发生器,最终得到评估结果。结果表明:基于云重心评判的装甲车辆驾驶技能评估方法能实现对装甲车辆驾驶过程的准确评估,为解决装甲车辆驾驶评估依赖经验教学的问题提供了技术路径。     

油门开度变化对零差速式双流传动转向动态特性的影响

考察履带车辆转向期间增大发动机油门开度对转向动态特性的影响,基于Matlab/Simulink对油门开度变化转向过程的动态特性进行了仿真分析,应用VBOX试验测试系统设计了某履带车辆转向试验。试验结果表明:通过增大发动机油门开度可以使车辆转向角速度增大,进而缩短转向所需时间;转向阻力较大时,可以采取增大油门的方式提高主动轮转矩,克服不良转向条件,但无法获得更小的转向半径。     

某工厂宿舍楼建筑结构裂缝分析

在建筑密集区进行深基坑开挖,不可避免地会对周边既有建筑物产生不利影响。为了探明某工厂宿舍楼结构损坏的原因,通过现场调查、结构检测、建筑物位移监测以及核查相邻在建工程项目的施工资料,对损坏原因进行了综合分析,发现建筑物结构损坏随时间发展呈明显的阶段性变化,规律性较强。根据现场检测,结合相关勘察报告,重点分析了裂缝产生原因为建筑物所处地基受相邻工程影响产生了滑移。该案例介绍的结构损伤分析方法具有较强的参考和借鉴意义。     

基于雷达的通信系统研究进展

雷达技术与无线通信技术的相似性使得在雷达基础上实现通信功能成为可能。根据雷达与通信结合的程度,把基于雷达的通信系统分为两类,分别介绍了松耦合的雷达通信一体化系统和紧耦合的雷达自通信系统,概览了国内外学者在该领域上的研究进展情况,对未来需突破的关键问题进行了梳理。