导弹飞行试验外测系统误差的估计

在导弹飞行试验中,遥外测数据是进行精度和可靠性分析的依据。通常假定外测误差服从零均值正态分布,而在实际测量中,外测参数有可能带有系统误差,它的存在对飞行轨道和落点信息的获取都具有不利的影响。在一定的模型假设下,本文获得了外测系统误差的估计,并对一些仿真结果进行了初步分析。     

An exact analysis of a joint production‐inventory problem in two‐echelon inventory systems

We consider a two‐echelon inventory system with a manufacturer operating from a warehouse supplying multiple distribution centers (DCs) that satisfy the demand originating from multiple sources. The manufacturer has a finite production capacity and production times are stochastic. Demand from each source follows an independent Poisson process. We assume that the transportation times between the warehouse and DCs may be positive which may require keeping inventory at both the warehouse and DCs. Inventory in both echelons is managed using the base‐stock policy. Each demand source can procure the product from one or more DCs, each incurring a different fulfilment cost. The objective is to determine the optimal base‐stock levels at the warehouse and DCs as well as the assignment of the demand sources to the DCs so that the sum of inventory holding, backlog, and transportation costs is minimized. We obtain a simple equation for finding the optimal base‐stock level at each DC and an upper bound for the optimal base‐stock level at the warehouse. We demonstrate several managerial insights including that the demand from each source is optimally fulfilled entirely from a single distribution center, and as the system's utilization approaches 1, the optimal base‐stock level increases in the transportation time at a rate equal to the demand rate arriving at the DC. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Approximation methods for the analysis of a multicomponent,multiproduct assemble‐to‐order system

In this article, we consider the performance evaluation of a multicomponent, multiproduct assemble‐to‐order (ATO) system. Each component is managed independently using a base‐stock policy at a supply facility with limited production capacity and an infinite buffer. The arrivals of demands follow a multivariate Poisson process and unfilled demands are backlogged. Because exact analysis of the proposed system is not feasible, we propose two approximation methods which provide upper and lower bounds for various performance measures such as fill rate, average waiting time, and average number of backorders of the proposed system. Our computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the two approximation methods under various system settings. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于新型非结构有限体积解耦算法的激波诱导燃烧数值模拟

把基于结构网格有限差分方法建立的化学非平衡流动模拟的新型解耦算法推广到基于非结构网格的有限体积法,从而可用于模拟复杂几何构型下的化学反应流动.对H2/ Air预混气体中激波诱导振荡燃烧的Lehr实验进行了数值模拟,计算得到的振荡频率与实验结果符合很好,表明计算方法具有时间和空间二阶精度.通过对不同几何外形发射体的计算发...     

基于群组定权的装备维修系统效能综合评价

群组定权方法在确定权重时考虑不同专家的意见,并按一定规则形成一致意见,该方法能克服指标定权的偏主观性,具有很强的客观性,精确度较高.分析并确定了装备维修系统效能评价指标体系,然后采用群组定权方法赋予各评价指标权重,在确定权重的基础上,应用权重系数法对效能进行综合评价.实例分析表明,该方法可行有效,并有较高的精度,为深入...     

地空导弹装备战场损伤等级的综合指标评判

全面考虑了影响地空导弹装备战场损伤等级评判的各种因素,对地空导弹装备战场损伤等级进行了划分,并应用层次分析法和模糊综合评判的理论,建立了地空导弹装备战场损伤等级的二级综合指标评判模型,实现了地空导弹装备战场损伤等级的定量评价.     

Agent战场视景仿真视点智能控制方法

为了实现战场视景仿真中视点的智能控制,使视点能够自动选择运动方式,根据场景中发生的热点事件自动切换观察目标并且自动调整观察位置及角度,将Agent的思想引入视点控制策略的设计,提出了一种基于Agent的战场视景仿真视点的智能控制方法,针对热点事件搜索智能体、观察目标选择智能体和观察方式控制智能体的智能体行为算法,以及多...     

海军武器系统效能评估仿真系统框架设计

针对如何体现复杂武器系统在战役全过程作战效能这一装备综合论证中迫切需要解决的问题,在详细分析海军作战模拟流程的基础上,遵循HLA规范构建了一个开放式的分布交互仿真系统框架,设计了软件的战场环境生成、武器数据管理、仿真实体生成、想定编辑、推演核心、态势显示、人工干预等功能模块.该系统经过推演验证,结果直观反映了装备协同对...     

小子样条件下巡航导弹的命中精度评估方法

针对巡航导弹定型试验发数少、验前试验信息源多的特点,提出小子样条件下,通过可信性检验分别得到每个验前信息源的可信度,在导弹落点偏差分布为正态-逆伽马分布的假设下,获得评估的验前分布参数,选择基于可信度的加权方法对多源验前信息进行融合,采用Bayes估计方法得到命中精度。最后结合实例进行仿真,说明了该方法较传统的Bayes方法更稳健,很适合巡航导弹命中精度的评估。     

贝叶斯网络推理在信息系统安全风险评估中的应用

提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络推理的安全风险评估方法。从实际出发建立信息系统的贝叶斯网络模型,根据专家给出的先验信息,结合获得的证据信息,运用Pearl方法完成对模型的评估,给出在特定条件下模型的计算——线性推理算法。最后,以实例分析信息系统安全评估的实现过程,结果表明,该方法可行、有效。