装备战场损伤试验布局设计仿真研究

装备战场损伤试验存在实施难度大,试验效率低的问题。为提高试验效能,采用AUTODYN,建立预制破片战斗部有限元仿真模型,模拟了战斗部爆炸及预制破片飞散的过程,仿真结果同实弹试验所采集数据基本吻合,验证了所用模拟方法的有效性。通过分析破片侵彻靶板的损伤规律,建立了球形破片撞击靶板损伤相图,结合破片飞散规律,建立了试验布局参考相图。研究结果表明:预制破片战斗部的爆炸及对装备的打击过程,能够通过数值仿真方式准确的进行模拟,从而大大减少试验费用;所建立的试验布局参考相图,能够为试验布局的设计和优化提供一定的参考。     

Optimal redesign decisions through failure rate estimates

To reduce the time-to-market of newly developed systems, manufacturers increasingly adopt strategies where systems are brought to market while system field reliability is still uncertain. These systems are typically sold under performance-based contracts, which incentivizes potential customers to invest in them despite reliability uncertainty. Such contracts make the manufacturer (partly) responsible for the availability of the system. Subsequently, when field reliability is lower than anticipated, the manufacturer may choose to redesign the system to avoid high contract penalties. Redesign is a costly effort which may substantially increase field reliability. Deciding when to redesign is challenging, especially because the initial failure rate estimate by the system's engineers is refined over time as failure data accrues. We propose a model that endogenizes the failure rate updating to analyze this tactical redesign decision. We study additive and multiplicative redesigns and show that the optimal policy has a control limit structure. We benchmark our optimal policy against a static counterpart numerically, and conclude that basing redesign decisions on the updated estimate of the failure rate can substantially reduce costs.