基于支持向量机的武器系统研制项目评估分析

对常规评估方法和支持向量机模型用于武器系统研制项目评估进行了分析和比较,着重分析了应用支持向量机进行武器系统研制项目重要度评估的具体形式以及方法特点,通过实例进行了分析验证,取得了满意的结果.     

An economic lot‐sizing problem with perishable inventory and economies of scale costs: Approximation solutions and worst case analysis

The costs of many economic activities such as production, purchasing, distribution, and inventory exhibit economies of scale under which the average unit cost decreases as the total volume of the activity increases. In this paper, we consider an economic lot‐sizing problem with general economies of scale cost functions. Our model is applicable to both nonperishable and perishable products. For perishable products, the deterioration rate and inventory carrying cost in each period depend on the age of the inventory. Realizing that the problem is NP‐hard, we analyze the effectiveness of easily implementable policies. We show that the cost of the best Consecutive‐Cover‐Ordering (CCO) policy, which can be found in polynomial time, is guaranteed to be no more than (4 + 5)/7 ≈ 1.52 times the optimal cost. In addition, if the ordering cost function does not change from period to period, the cost of the best CCO policy is no more than 1.5 times the optimal cost. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

Comparison of rank aggregation methods based on inherent ability

Ranking is a common task for selecting and evaluating alternatives. In the past few decades, combining rankings results from various sources into a consensus ranking has become an increasingly active research topic. In this study, we focus on the evaluation of rank aggregation methods. We first develop an experimental data generation method, which can provide ground truth ranking for alternatives based on their “inherent ability.” This experimental data generation method can generate the required individual synthetic rankings with adjustable accuracy and length. We propose characterizing the effectiveness of rank aggregation methods by calculating the Kendall tau distance between the aggregated ranking and the ground truth ranking. We then compare four classical rank aggregation methods and present some useful findings on the relative performances of the four methods. The results reveal that both the accuracy and length of individual rankings have a remarkable effect on the comparison results between rank aggregation methods. Our methods and results may be helpful to both researchers and decision‐makers.     

Warehouse sizing to minimize inventory and storage costs

This paper considers a warehouse sizing problem whose objective is to minimize the total cost of ordering, holding, and warehousing of inventory. Unlike typical economic lot sizing models, the warehousing cost structure examined here is not the simple unit rate type, but rather a more realistic step function of the warehouse space to be acquired. In the cases when only one type of stock‐keeping unit (SKU) is warehoused, or when multiple SKUs are warehoused, but, with separable inventory costs, closed form solutions are obtained for the optimal warehouse size. For the case of multi‐SKUs with joint inventory replenishment cost, a heuristic with a provable performance bound of 94% is provided. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 299–312, 2001     

Stochastic analysis of a single server retrial queue with general retrial times

Retrial queueing systems are widely used in teletraffic theory and computer and communication networks. Although there has been a rapid growth in the literature on retrial queueing systems, the research on retrial queues with nonexponential retrial times is very limited. This paper is concerned with the analytical treatment of an M/G/1 retrial queue with general retrial times. Our queueing model is different from most single server retrial queueing models in several respectives. First, customers who find the server busy are queued in the orbit in accordance with an FCFS (first‐come‐first‐served) discipline and only the customer at the head of the queue is allowed for access to the server. Besides, a retrial time begins (if applicable) only when the server completes a service rather upon a service attempt failure. We carry out an extensive analysis of the queue, including a necessary and sufficient condition for the system to be stable, the steady state distribution of the server state and the orbit length, the waiting time distribution, the busy period, and other related quantities. Finally, we study the joint distribution of the server state and the orbit length in non‐stationary regime. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 561–581, 1999     

Inventory policies for a make‐to‐order system with a perishable component and fixed ordering cost

We consider a make‐to‐order production system where two major components, one nonperishable (referred to as part 1) and one perishable (part 2), are needed to fulfill a customer order. In each period, replenishment decisions for both parts need to be made jointly before demand is realized and a fixed ordering cost is incurred for the nonperishable part. We show that a simple (s_n,S,S) policy is optimal. Under this policy, S along with the number of backorders at the beginning of a period if any and the availability of the nonperishable part (part 1) determines the optimal order quantity of the perishable part (part 2), while (s_n,S) guide when and how much of part 1 to order at each state. Numerical study demonstrates that the benefits of using the joint replenishment policy can be substantial, especially when the unit costs are high and/or the profit margin is low. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

基于DoDAF+STK的集群协同探测功能架构建模与仿真

针对无人集群协同探测系统,提出一种分级集散式协同探测总体架构,并设计集群协同探测的典型模式与作战场景,依据DoDAF方法论,从作战视图、系统视图视角完成协同探测功能的划分与架构设计,通过生成的可执行模型进行逻辑自洽性验证。利用STK软件部署战场兵力,对相关模型进行推演分析,实现与系统逻辑模型的互联互通,验证体系逻辑模型与作战想定模型的一致性。     

Planning gamma accelerated degradation tests with two accelerating variables

Gamma accelerated degradation tests (ADT) are widely used to assess timely lifetime information of highly reliable products with degradation paths that follow a gamma process. In the existing literature, there is interest in addressing the problem of deciding how to conduct an efficient, ADT that includes determinations of higher stress‐testing levels and their corresponding sample‐size allocations. The existing results mainly focused on the case of a single accelerating variable. However, this may not be practical when the quality characteristics of the product have slow degradation rates. To overcome this difficulty, we propose an analytical approach to address this decision‐making problem using the case of two accelerating variables. Specifically, based on the criterion of minimizing the asymptotic variance of the estimated q quantile of lifetime distribution of the product, we analytically show that the optimal stress levels and sample‐size allocations can be simultaneously obtained via a general equivalence theorem. In addition, we use a practical example to illustrate the proposed procedure.     

Maintaining systems with heterogeneous spare parts

We consider the problem of optimally maintaining a stochastically degrading, single‐unit system using heterogeneous spares of varying quality. The system's failures are unannounced; therefore, it is inspected periodically to determine its status (functioning or failed). The system continues in operation until it is either preventively or correctively maintained. The available maintenance options include perfect repair, which restores the system to an as‐good‐as‐new condition, and replacement with a randomly selected unit from the supply of heterogeneous spares. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted maintenance costs over an infinite time horizon. We formulate the problem using a mixed observability Markov decision process (MOMDP) model in which the system's age is observable but its quality must be inferred. We show, under suitable conditions, the monotonicity of the optimal value function in the belief about the system quality and establish conditions under which finite preventive maintenance thresholds exist. A detailed computational study reveals that the optimal policy encourages exploration when the system's quality is uncertain; the policy is more exploitive when the quality is highly certain. The study also demonstrates that substantial cost savings are achieved by utilizing our MOMDP‐based method as compared to more naïve methods of accounting for heterogeneous spares.     

On efficiency of multistage channel with bargaining over wholesale prices

This article considers a multistage channel with deterministic price‐sensitive demand. Two systems for pricing decisions, that is, the bargaining system and the leader‐follower system, are compared. We characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions on the power structure, under which the solution of the bargaining system Pareto dominates that of the leader‐follower system. Also, under such conditions, we give a tight upper bound of channel efficiency of the bargaining system, which converges to 100% channel efficiency as the number of stages increases to infinity. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 449–459, 2016