The “motivated bias” dilemma in warfare and intelligence

The goal of this article is to challenge the assumption of rationality in the behavior of decision-making units involved in security, defense, intelligence and warfare and to consider the influence of “motivated bias” in such instances. A review of motivational literature within international politics and a discussion of literature applying “motivated biases” to warfare and strategic surprise will offer an alternative view of the primacy of rationality in such decisions.     

System comparison procedures for automatic target recognition systems

Estimating the performance of an automatic target recognition (ATR) system in terms of its probability of successfully identifying a target involves extensive image collection and processing, which can be very time‐consuming and expensive. Therefore, we investigate the Wald sequential test for the difference in two proportions as a sample size‐reducing alternative to ranking and selection procedures and confidence intervals. An analysis of the test parameters leads to a practical methodology for implementing the Wald test for fairly comparing two systems, based on specific experimental goals. The test is also extended with the modified, sequentially rejective Bonferroni procedure for the multiple pairwise comparison of more than two systems. Two sampling schemes for different experimental goals are also discussed. The test methodology is applied to actual data to compare different configurations of a specific ATR system, with the results demonstrating that the modified Wald sequential procedure is a useful alternative to comparing proportions with confidence intervals, particularly when data are expensive. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 357–371, 1999     

Viability analysis: A formulation aid for all classes of network models

Nonviable network models have edges which are forced to zero flow simply by the pattern of interconnection of the nodes. The original nonviability diagnosis algorithm [4] is extended here to cover all classes of network models, including pure, generalized, pure processing, nonconserving processing, and generalized processing. The extended algorithm relies on the conversion of all network forms to a pure processing form. Efficiency improvements to the original algorithm are also presented.     

Spares stocking policies for repairable items with dependent repair times

This paper analyzes the problem of determining desirable spares inventory levels for repairable items with dependent repair times. The problem is important for repairable products such as aircraft engines which can have very large investment in spares inventory levels. While existing models can be used to determine optimal inventory spares levels when repair times are independent, the practical considerations of limited repair shop capacity and prioritized shop dispatching rules combine to make repair times not independent of one another. In this research a simulation model of a limited capacity repair facility with prioritized scheduling is used to explore a variety of heuristic approaches to the spares stocking decision. The heuristics are also compared with use of a model requiring independent repair times (even though that assumption is not valid here). The results show that even when repair time dependencies are present, the performance of a model which assumes independent repair times is quite good.     

Adjacency‐based local top‐down search method for finding maximal efficient faces in multiple objective linear programming

It is well‐known that the efficient set of a multiobjective linear programming (MOLP) problem can be represented as a union of the maximal efficient faces of the feasible region. In this paper, we propose a method for finding all maximal efficient faces for an MOLP. The new method is based on a condition that all efficient vertices (short for the efficient extreme points and rays) for the MOLP have been found and it relies on the adjacency, affine independence and convexity results of efficient sets. The method uses a local top‐down search strategy to determine maximal efficient faces incident to every efficient vertex for finding maximal efficient faces of an MOLP problem. To our knowledge, the proposed method is the first top‐down search method that uses the adjacency property of the efficient set to find all maximal efficient faces. We discuss this and other advantages and disadvantages of the algorithm. We also discuss some computational experience we have had with our computer code for implementing the algorithm. This computational experience involved solving several MOLP problems with the code.     

Book reviews

Exporting Democracy: Fulfilling America's Destiny. By Joshua Muravchik, American Enterprise Institute (1991) ISSN 0–8447–3734–8. $12.95.

Generals in the Palacio. By Roderick Ai Camp. Oxford University Press, (1992), ISBN 0–19–507300–2, £45.

L'Armement en France. Genèse, Ampleur et Coût d'une Industrie By François Chesnais and Claude Serfati, Editions Nathan, Collection Economie/Sciences Sociales, Paris (1992), ISBN 2–09–190086–9.

The Têt Offensive. Intelligence Failure in War. By James Wirtz, Cornell University Press, New York (1991), ISBN 0–8014–2486–0. $38.50.

Restructuring of arms producton in Western Europe. Edited by Michael Brzoska and Peter Lock. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1992), ISBN 0–1982–9147–7. £25.00.

What is Proper Soldiering? A study of new perspectives for the future uses of the Armed Forces of the 1990s. By Michael Harbottle. The Centre for International Peacebuilding, Chipping Norton (1992), £3.50.

The Strategic Defence Initiative By Edward Reiss, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1992), ISBN 0–521–41097–5. £30.00.     

A linear-programming-based method for determining whether or not n demand points are on a hemisphere

Whenever n demand points are located on a hemisphere, spherical location problems can be solved easily using geometrical methods or mathematical programming. A method based on a linear programming formulation with four constraints is presented to determine whether n demand points are on a hemisphere. The formulation is derived from a modified minimax spherical location problem whose Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are the constraints of the linear program. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.