Mixture selection for maximal stochastic performance

Methodology for the optimal selection of a mixture of components for the attainment of a required performance level is developed. This accommodates both cost and stochastic variation and is applied to gasoline blending. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Sole sourcing versus dual sourcing under stochastic demands and lead times

The use of a single vendor for each inventoried item is usually assumed in most of the inventory models. However, there are situations where the use of more than one vendor should be considered, especially when lead times are stochastic. This research presents a theoretical investigation of the effect of cost structures on the relative performance of sole-sourcing versus dual-sourcing inventory control policies. We show that except for cases where the ordering cost is high, the lead-time variability is low, or the customer service level is low, dual sourcing performs better than sole sourcing under the normally distributed demand and shifted-exponential lead times. Moreover, the computational results indicate the dual sourcing provides a better service level than sole sourcing at the optimal solutions, and that dual sourcing results in larger order quantities than sole sourcing, which suggests that attractive quantity discounts may not be in jeopardy when dual sourcing is employed. Finally, because it is generally known that multiple sourcing can enhance the competition among suppliers, material managers should consider splitting purchase orders when two equally qualified suppliers are available. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Properties of a three-dimensional estimator

A large-scale simulation was conducted to investigate the statistical properties and the suitability of an estimator that estimates the coordinates of a three-dimensional source, according to the angles at which several observers view the source. The estimator uses a heuristical averaging method of estimates obtained from the solution of six two-dimensional problems that utilize line-to-point transformations. The estimator was found to be approximately unbiased with low standard deviations for normal error distributions. An effective and easy-to-use forecasting formula was developed to forecast the parameters of the distributions of the estimates. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Note: Pairwise rearrangements in reliability structures

Boland, Proschan, and Tong [2] used the notion of criticality of nodes in a coherent system to study the optimal component arrangement of reliability structures. They also provided a sufficient minimal cut (path) based criterion for verifying the criticality ordering of two nodes. We develop a necessary and sufficient condition for two nodes to be comparable and provide specific examples illustrating our result's applicability. As a corollary, certain optimal arrangement properties of well-known systems are derived. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Employment and utilization of engineers among defense contractors

Defense contractors retain engineers for two reasons. First, engineers work on current-period production contracts. Second, engineers conduct independent research and development (IR&D) and write bids and proposals (B&P) for future contracts. The amount of IR&D/B&P activity, however, understates the amount of effort devoted to learning that reduces the cost of future production. Even some engineers who work on current-period production may engage in learning, as a by-product of their efforts. This article develops and implements a model for estimating the volume of learning activity undertaken by four large manufacturers of military aircraft. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Hybrid minimal repair and age replacement maintenance policies,with nonnegligible repair times

A system undergoes minimal repair during [0, T] with a failure replacement on first failure during [T, a], or a planned replacement if the system is still functioning at elapsed time a. Repairs and replacements are not necessarily instantaneous. An expression is obtained for the asymptotic expected cost rate, and sufficient conditions are obtained for the optimum T* > 0. Several special cases are considered. A numerical investigation for a Weibull distributed time to first failure compares this elapsed-time policy with replacement on failure only, and also a policy based on system operating time or age. It is found that in many cases the elapsed-time-based policy is only marginally worse than one based on system age, and may therefore be preferred in view of its administrative convenience. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Estimating moments of the minimum order statistic from normal populations—a bayesian approach

Let Yⁱ ∽ N(θⁱ, σ), i = 1, …, p, be independently distributed, where θⁱ and σ are unknown. A Bayesian approach is used to estimate the first two moments of the minimum order statistic, W = min (Y¹, …, Y^p). In order to compute the Bayes estimates, one has to evaluate the predictive densities of the Yⁱ's conditional on past data. Although the required predictive densities are complicated in form, an efficient algorithm to calculate them has been developed and given in the article. An application of the Bayesian method in a continuous-review control model with multiple suppliers is discussed. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Using grasp to solve the component grouping problem

Component grouping problems, a type of set-partitioning problem, arise in a number of different manufacturing and material logistics application areas. For example, in circuit board assembly, robotic work cells can be used to insert components onto a number of different types of circuit boards. Each type of circuit board requires particular components, with some components appearing on more than one type. The problem is to decide which components should be assigned to each work cell in order to minimize the number of visits by circuit boards to work cells. We describe two new heuristics for this problem, based on so-called greedy random adaptive search procedures (GRASP). With GRASP, a local search technique is replicated many times with different starting points. The starting points are determined by a greedy procedure with a probabilistic aspect. The best result is then kept as the solution. Computational experiments on problems based on data from actual manufacturing processes indicate that these GRASP methods outperform, both in speed and in solution quality, an earlier, network-flow-based heuristic. We also describe techniques for generating lower bounds for the component grouping problem, based on the combinatorial structure of a problem instance. The lower bounds for our real-world test problems averaged within 7%-8% of the heuristic solutions. Similar results are obtained for larger, randomly generated problems. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons. Inc.     

The reliability of a series system of repairable subsystems: A bayesian approach

Consider the problem of estimating the reliability of a series system of (possibly) repairable subsystems when test data and historical information are available at the component, subsystem, and system levels. Such a problem is well suited to a Bayesian approach. Martz, Waller, and Fickas [Technometrics, 30 , 143–154 (1988)] presented a Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail (binomial) data at any level. However, other types of test data are often available, including (a) lifetimes of nonrepayable components, and (b) repair histories for repairable subsystems. In this article we describe a new Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail, life, and repair data at any level. We assume a Weibull model for the life data, a censored Weibull model for the pass/fail data, and a power-law process model for the repair data. Consequently, the test data at each level can be represented by a two-parameter likelihood function of a certain form, and historical information can be expressed using a conjugate family of prior distributions. We discuss computational issues, and use the procedure to analyze the reliability of a vehicle system. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A stochastic optimization model for planning capacity expansion in a service industry under uncertain demand

A stochastic optimization model for capacity expansion for a service industry that incorporates uncertainty in future demand is developed. Based on a weighted set of possible demand scenarios, the model generates a recommended schedule of capacity expressions, and calculates the resulting sales under each scenario. The capacity schedule specifies the size, location, and timing of these expansions that will maximize the company's expected profit. The model includes a budget constraint on available resources. By using Lagrangian relaxation and exploiting the special nested knapsack structure in the sub-problems, an algorithm was developed for its solution. Based on the initial computational results, this algorithm appears to be more efficient than linear programming for this special problem. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.