A stochastic network formulation for complex sequential processes

A network model incorporating stochastic features is considered. The model represents a complex sequential process where an object or system moves through a succession of states (nodes) and operating modes (classes) in the course of carrying out its function (fulfilling its purpose). Transitions between states and operating modes occur in a possibly random manner and require (consume) some resource in randomly varying amounts. We discuss the routing behavior and resource requirements of a typical object as it moves through (and eventually out of) the network. We then shift our focus from a single object and its odyssey to the network as a whole, where time is the resource and many objects are entering the network according to a possibly nonhomogeneous Poisson pattern; in this vein, we discuss the evolution of the network over time. Finally, we consider some applications of the formulation, and results.     

Book reviews

Soviet Nuclear Strategy from Stalin to Gorbachev: a Revolution in Soviet Military and Political Thinking. By Honore M. Catudal. Mansell, London (1988), ISBN 0–7201–2000–4, £25.00

The Military: More Than Just a Job? Edited by Charles C. Moskos and Frank R. Wood. Pergamon‐Brassey's, London (1988), ISBN 0–08–034321‐X, £17.00 ($30.00)

Douglas Haig, 1861–1928. By Gerard J. de Groot. Unwin Hyman, London (1988), ISBN 004 4401922, £20.00

Defence Policy Making. A Comparative Analysis. Edited by G. M. Dillon. Leicester University Press, Leicester (1988), ISBN 0–715–1268–5, £10.95

The Future of U.K. Air Power. Edited by P. Sabin. Brassey's, London (1988), ISBN 0–08–035825‐X (hardcover), 0–08–036256–7 (flexicover), hardcover £18.95 ($34.00), flexicover £9.95 ($17.95)     

Optimizing search with positive information feedback

A search model is formulated in which positive information may be obtained, through the detection of trails, as to the target's earlier whereabouts. The corresponding Bayesian update formulas for target location probabilities are derived. The model does not appear to be amenable to rigorous optimization. A moving-horizon rule, and a heuristic simplification thereof, are, however, derived. In two numerical examples it is demonstrated that actively designing for detecting trail information, through use of these moving-horizon rules, has substantial potential advantage over using, for example, myopic rules even if the positive information is adaptively incorporated into location probabilities before applying the latter rules in each time period.     

A new bivariate negative binomial distribution

A new bivariate negative binomial distribution is derived by convoluting an existing bivariate geometric distribution; the probability function has six parameters and admits of positive or negative correlations and linear or nonlinear regressions. Given are the moments to order two and, for special cases, the regression function and a recursive formula for the probabilities. Purely numerical procedures are utilized in obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. A data set with a nonlinear empirical regression function and another with negative sample correlation coefficient are discussed.     

Minimizing the average deviation of job completion times about a common due date

This paper considers a single-machine scheduling problem in which penalities occur when a job is completed early or late. The objective is to minimize the total penalty subject to restrictive assumptions on the due dates and penalty functions for jobs. A procedure is presented for finding an optimal schedule.     

A generalization of the entropy model for brand purchase behavior

Hemiter's entropy model for brand purchase behavior has been generalized for Renyi's measure of entropy which is a more general concept than Shannon's measure of entropy used by Herniter and which includes Shannon's measure as a limiting case. The generalized model considered here is more flexible than Herniter's model since it can give different marketing statistics for different products and it can give these statistics even when only some of the brands are considered.     

Optimal arrangement of systems

To location L_i we are to allocate a “generator” and n_i “machines” for i = 1, …,k, where n₁ … n₁ ≧ … ≧ n_k. Although the generators and machines function independently of one another, a machine is operable only if it and the generator at its location are functioning. The problem we consider is that of finding the arrangement or allocation optimizing the number of operable machines. We show that if the objective is to maximize the expected number of operable machines at some future time, then it is best to allocate the best generator and the n₁ best machines to location L₁, the second-best generator and the n₂-next-best machines to location L₂, etc. However, this arrangement is not always stochastically optimal. For the case of two generators we give a necessary and sufficient condition that this arrangement is stochastically best, and illustrate the result with several examples.     

The Argentine dilemma: The Southern cone vis-à-vis the “contradictory duality of world reality”

The world has been faced with a contradiction since the end of the Cold War. On the one hand, there are factors that have led to complex multi-interdepen-dency; on the other, there is a process of global disintegration caused by those very same factors. It is in this context that the Southern Cone of South America has revealed a remarkable inequality in its balance of military power. If Argentina is taken as the center of gravity of both the sub-regions in the area, the Mercado Comun del Sur (Mercosur) and the Austral Cone, it is difficult to find a solution to this imbalance because the regional structure is experiencing the same contradictions as the world itself. What is clear is that the solution depends much more on the policies adopted by Argentina than those of Chile or Brazil. To solve this dilemma, Argentina needs credibility - something that requires fundamental internal change and substantial external support.