The Meaning of the Nuclear Evolution: China's Strategic Modernization and US-China Security Relations

Abstract

Will China's development of a new generation of nuclear weapons impact US-China security relations in important ways? One's answer depends on how one views the following: whether or not Chinese leaders believe that they are only now acquiring a secure second strike capability; the scope of coercive power that secure second strike capability provides to conventionally inferior actors; the meaning of China's ‘No First Use’ Doctrine; and the prospects for escalation control in future crises. Applying Cold War theories and tapping Chinese doctrinal writings this article concludes that China's nuclear modernization program might prove more consequential than is commonly believed.     

Book reviews

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漂浮式微型波力发电装置原理与结构

为了满足偏远岛屿小功率用电保障需求,根据波浪能特点,提出一种新型漂浮式微型波力发电装置。利用重锤惯性定心原理,建立浮动"机架",解决漂浮体内部相对固定问题;采用机-电直接转换系统,提高波浪能的利用效率;研究系统的原理与结构,分析系统的功能特点和主要运动参数。研究结果表明,漂浮式微型波力发电装置具有结构原理新颖、传动效率高、传动质量好与轻巧便携等优点。该研究为漂浮式微型波力发电装置的研发与应用奠定了基础。     

军事办公建筑被动式节能设计策略

军事办公建筑的节能设计与使用,对推动节能减排、促进军营建设具有重要意义。通过对被动式节能设计策略的研究,从建筑设计的视角,以军事办公建筑设计为突破口,分析能耗现状,明确设计目标和思路,从空间设计布局、围护结构热工性能、遮阳系统设置、自然通风与自然采光等方面,探讨被动式节能设计策略在军事办公建筑设计中的应用。结合特定环境,寻求贯穿节能设计始终的适宜技术,充分发挥被动式节能技术集成的优势。通过多项节能技术的协同作用,可以强化和扩大节能措施带来的节能效应,在降低能耗的同时创造出健康、舒适、高效的办公环境。     

油库压缩机组温度变送器法兰根部泄漏失效分析

为了解决基地油库压缩机组温度变送器法兰根部焊缝泄漏问题,采用照相、无损检测、化学成分分析、金相分析、显微硬度分析、扫描电镜观察与能谱分析等方法,对失效法兰进行失效分析。研究结果表明,法兰焊缝根部泄漏系焊缝未焊透和存在夹杂物所致,并因外应力作用而在熔合区马氏体区域沿晶扩展,导致角焊缝最终脆性断裂。结合现场实际情况,提出防止发生类似事故的建议。     

基于Ansofl的PMLS发电机纵向边端效应仿真

永磁直线同步发电机特殊的结构使其存在一种特殊现象——纵向边端效应,从而严重影响了永磁直线同步发电机的性能。利用有限元电磁场分析软件Ansoft建立了永磁直线同步发电机的二维模型,分析了纵向边端效应产生的原因,以及纵向边端效应对永磁直线同步发电机初级磁场的影响。利用磁阻相等的原理,通过增加发电机端部齿宽度和极数两种方法来改善永磁直线发电机性能。经Ansoft软件仿真,结果表明增加端部齿宽度和极数可以有效抑制纵向边端效应,提高永磁直线同步发电机的性能。     

月桂酸二乙醇酰胺对聚α-烯烃理化性能的影响

聚α-烯烃是应用十分广泛的润滑剂产品,在保证使用性能前提下提高其生物降解性具有十分重要的现实意义。选择前期实验中对矿物基础油生物降解性具有较大促进作用的月桂酸二乙醇酰胺作为生物降解促进剂,考察其对聚α-烯烃PAO 40生物降解性、抗磨减摩性、抗氧化安定性及黏度指数的影响。实验结果表明:月桂酸二乙醇酰胺既能有效促进PAO 40生物降解,也能一定程度上改善PAO 40的抗磨减摩性能,但对其抗氧化安定性及黏度指数影响不大。作为生物降解促进剂,月桂酸二乙醇酰胺在保证聚α-烯烃使用性能的基础上能有效提高后者的生物降解性,具有较大的实用价值。     

On estimating population characteristics from record-breaking observations II. Nonparametric results

Consider an experiment in which only record-breaking values (e.g., values smaller than all previous ones) are observed. The data available may be represented as X₁,K₁,X₂,K₂, …, where X₁,X₂, … are successive minima and K₁,K₂, … are the numbers of trials needed to obtain new records. Such data arise in life testing and stress testing and in industrial quality-control experiments. When only a single sequence of random records are available, efficient estimation of the underlying distribution F is possible only in a parametric framework (see Samaniego and Whitaker [9]). In the present article we study the problem of estimating certain population quantiles nonparametrically from such data. Furthermore, under the assumption that the process of observing random records can be replicated, we derive and study the nonparametric maximum-likelihood estimator F̂ of F. We establish the strong uniform consistency of this estimator as the number of replications grows large, and identify its asymptotic distribution theory. The performance of F̂ is compared to that of two possible competing estimators.