A componentwise index of service measurement in multi‐component systems

In this paper we present a componentwise delay measure for estimating and improving the expected delays experienced by customers in a multi‐component inventory/assembly system. We show that this measure is easily computed. Further, in an environment where the performance of each of the item delays could be improved with investment, we present a solution that aims to minimize this measure and, in effect, minimizes the average waiting time experienced by customers. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 2003     

An assessment of the ‘democratic’ coup theory

The Egyptian military's unconstitutional removal of President Mohamed Morsi has reignited a debate regarding the theory of the ‘democratic coup’. Though coups are almost invariably condemned, many political observers and a few scholars have recently argued that coups can act as catalysts for democratisation. This paper empirically assesses the democratic coup hypothesis for Africa. Multivariate analyses from 1952 to 2012 suggest that coups statistically improve a country's democratisation prospects. Extensions of the model show that coups appear to be likely precursors for democratisation in staunchly authoritarian regimes and have become less likely to end democracy over time, and that their positive influence has strengthened since the end of the Cold War. As of 2012, countries that have experienced a recent coup are expected to be four times more likely to witness a democratic transition than those that have remained coup-free.     

Minimum deterrence and missile defenses: what's new,what's true,what's arguable

Minimum deterrence is a compromise, or halfway house, between nuclear abolition or nearly zero and assured destruction, the dominant paradigm for strategic nuclear arms control during and after the cold war. Minimum deterrence as applied to the current relationship between the United States and Russia would require downsizing the numbers of operationally deployed long-range nuclear weapons to 1000, or fewer, on each side. More drastic bilateral Russian–American reductions would require the cooperation of other nuclear weapons states in making proportional reductions in their own arsenals. In addition, US plans for European-based and global missile defenses cause considerable angst in Russia and threaten to derail the Obama “reset” in Russian–American relations, despite the uncertainties about current and plausible future performances of missile defense technologies.     

Reconciling strategic studies … with itself: a common framework for choosing among strategies

Three distinct, and seemingly irreconcilable, schools of thought are identified within the strategic studies literature. One which searches for “universal principles of war,” a second, “context-dependent,” approach that seeks to embed each instance of warfare within its concurrent social, political, technological milieu and, finally a “paradoxical logic” school, which equates strategy with the generation of uncertainty. The author offers some intuitive concepts from non-cooperative game theory to develop a “dominate-mix” approach to strategy choice. In doing so, he helps to reconcile these disparate approaches and provides a simple framework to assist researchers in framing military decisions as well as to assist planners in choosing among strategies.     

Measures for Security in a Counterinsurgency

Quantitative measures to gauge progress in a counterinsurgency in use today include the number of enemy, friendly, and civilian casualties, and the level of violence. While common, each of these has drawbacks. With this and the sparseness of the literature on this topic in mind, we argue for a series of improved measures. These include the ratio of who is initiating incidents, an historical analysis of incidents and related variables, and an analysis of insurgent target sets. These measures are presented using data for Al Anbar province, Iraq, along with a discussion of their advantages over more common metrics.     

Waiting times for M/G/1 queues with service-time or delay-dependent server vacations

This article shows how to determine the stationary distribution of the virtual wait in M/G/1 queues with either one-at-a-time or exhaustive server vacations, depending on either service times or accrued workload. For the first type of dependence, each vacation time is a function of the immediately preceding service time or of whether the server finds the system empty after returning from vacation. In this way, it is possible to model situations such as long service times followed by short vacations, and vice versa. For the second type of dependence, the vacation time assigned to an arrival to follow its service is a function of the level of virtual wait reached. By this device, we can model situations in which vacations may be shortened whenever virtual delays have gotten excessive. The method of analysis employs level-crossing theory, and examples are given for various cases of service and vacation-time distributions. A closing discussion relates the new model class to standard M/G/1 queues where the service time is a sum of variables having complex dependencies. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

John Brown as guerrilla terrorist

John Brown is usually not considered to have been a terrorist, and even recent analyses of his activities consider him to be a guerrilla fighter or insurgent in his activities in Kansas. Brown, however, meets the criteria of a terrorist more than a guerrilla fighter when his activities in the Kansas Territory are considered. His raid on Harpers Ferry, however, is more in line with guerrilla operations or insurgent activities.