基于LSSVM和信息熵的航材备件组合预测方法

为了实现航空装备的精确化保障,需要对航材备件数量进行预测,现有方法难以在小样本的条件下,准确地预测航材备件数量,为此提出了一种基于最小二乘支持向量机和信息熵的组合预测方法.首先,将基于最小二乘支持向量机的一元预测方法和多元预测方法相互结合,提出了一种组合预测模型;然后,使用信息熵理论对组合预测模型的权重系数进行优化;最后,给出了所提预测方法的计算步骤.实验结果表明,所提方法在预测航材备件数量时,具有较高的准确性.     

基于DoDAF的装备保障系统建模研究

针对装备保障系统建模中存在的沟通周期长、应变能力弱和模型可重用性低的问题,研究应用DoDAF中的作战视角来进行装备保障系统描述,介绍了DoDAF的演变和作战视角下的模型,提出了基于DoDAF的装备保障系统建模过程,最后通过装备维修保障的实例验证了该建模过程的有效性。     

红外空情预警系统及其作战运用研究

通过对我军防空兵部队现有预警系统的预警能力和红外空情预警系统特点的分析,论述了发展红外空情预警系统的必要性;同时,详细研究了红外空情预警系统在防空作战中的运用。     

Constructive Ambiguity and the Peace Process in Northern Ireland

The Belfast Agreement of 1998 was hailed at the time as a breakthrough in conflict resolution both in Northern Ireland and as a model for international emulation. In fact it has turned out to be neither; rather it has been a sad exercise in surrendering to terrorism and the cause of increased sectarian segregation and enmity. The core of the problem lies in the 'constructive ambiguity' at the heart of the Agreement - that is, a form of words that all could sign up to because each party could interpret them differently. This may have enabled everyone to sign up, but also implied they were signing up to different things and therefore were not in agreement. Consequently clever word games and spin by politicians and senior civil servants have created an, in some ways, worse situation, largely because real, substantive issues were ducked. This in turn has its roots in postmodernism, whose baleful influence can be seen throughout not only the Agreement but most government policy over the past 20 odd years.     

Markets for surplus components with a strategic supplier

We study markets for surplus components, which allow manufacturers with excess component inventory to sell to firms with a shortage. Recent developments in internet commerce have the potential to greatly increase the efficiency of such markets. We develop a one‐period model in which a monopolist supplier sells to a number of independent manufacturers who are uncertain about demand for final goods. After uncertainty is resolved, the manufacturers have the opportunity to trade. Because uncertainty is over demand functions, the model allows us to endogenize both the price of final goods and the price of components in wholesale and surplus markets. We derive conditions on demand uncertainty that determine whether a surplus market will increase or decrease supplier profits. Increased costs of transacting on the surplus market may benefit manufacturers, because of the impact of these costs on the supplier's pricing power. The surplus market can decrease overall efficiency of the supply chain, since the benefit of better allocation of components may be outweighed by an increased double‐marginalization effect. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

《建筑灭火设施》新型课程体系的构建

为了促进课程建设的可持续发展,提出了以＂一二四六＂为核心理念的《建筑灭火设施》课程的总体发展思路。在此基础上,分别构建了师资队伍、教学内容、教学方法、教材、实验实训和课程材料新体系。     

新型坦克炮控交流调速系统控制策略

介绍了坦克炮控交流调速系统的一种新型控制策略.针对传统直接转矩控制(DTC)中存在的电流和转矩脉动较大的问题,通过预测计算定子磁链矢量所需变化量补偿磁链和转矩偏差,并在转速控制环节加入自抗扰控制器,有效地减小了电流和转矩脉动.针对某型坦克炮控交流调速系统所用电机,分别对传统型DTC和新型DTC控制进行仿真研究,结果表明...     

全电式炮控系统非线性特性及其控制策略

全电式炮控系统是一个强本质非线性的复杂系统,内部存在齿圈间隙、弹性形变、摩擦力矩、参数摄动和外界扰动等不确定非线性因素,造成炮控系统出现稳态＂牵移＂,驱动死区、延时与振荡,低速＂爬行＂和高速调炮＂超回＂等一系列问题,成为制约系统性能进一步提升的瓶颈问题。分析了全电式炮控系统的特点和结构组成,论述了系统内部各种非线性因素及其对炮控系统性能的影响,在此基础上探讨了近年来炮控系统非线性补偿控制的研究进展和今后的研究方向,为提高炮控系统性能提供了新的技术途径。     

地下坑道油气泄漏数值模拟与实验研究

为了研究受限空间油气泄漏的运动规律,及时有效地查明事故隐患,预报和预防各类事故的发生,以挽救人民的生命财产,基于对油气泄漏的分析,建立了油气泄漏的仿真模型.采用压力和速度耦合场的SIMPLE算法,完成了地下坑道油气泄漏过程的数值模拟研究,数值模拟结果与实验结果吻合较好.研究发现,地下坑道的油气泄漏可分为4个阶段:孕育阶...     

火控系统线性与非线性理论

从学科发展的角度,研究了火控系统线性与非线性理论;指出了火控系统在各环节上呈现的非线性关系;强调了其中的线性、拟线性理论是其重要的组成部分;给出了线性、拟线性火控系统理论的典型成果;最后指出:目标机动、量测统计特性、武器射击方式变化,推动着非线性火控系统理论发展。该问题有待继续深入研究。