Croatia's bitter harvest: Total National Defence's role in the Croatian War of Independence

Croatia's successful bid for independence was one of the defining moments of the immediate post-Cold War period. Nevertheless, the means that Croatia used to obtain independence remains relatively unexamined by academics. This article focuses on the early period of Croatia's bid for secession, and specifically the role that Yugoslavia's policy of Total National Defence played in facilitating its independence. Unlike in Slovenia, where the legacies of Total National Defence facilitated Slovenia's bid for secession, in Croatia the decision of its political leaders meant that the country largely neglected its positive legacies, resulting in a protracted four-year struggle.     

面向混部云失败批处理作业的预测算法

为了降低混部云失败批处理作业的风险,使用K-means聚类算法将批处理作业分为四类,在分类的基础上提出了二层嵌套分类模型(two-layer nested classification model, TLNM),实现了基于TLNM的预测算法。基于Ali Trace 2018数据集上的实验结果表明,该算法的接受者操作特性(receiver operating characteristic, ROC)曲线明显优于其他常用分类器,ROC曲线下面积(即AUC)可以达到0.978,表明该算法具有良好的分类性能。同时召回率可以达到0.951,通过混淆矩阵可以看出TLNM算法能够准确预测出执行失败的批处理作业。     

均衡聚类市场拍卖机制的异构无人机集群任务规划方法

针对大规模异构无人机集群的全局任务规划问题,提出一种基于均衡聚类市场拍卖机制的任务规划方法。对无人机群协同合作完成任务的场景进行分析,综合任务聚类和无人机联盟的优势,建立了通用性较高的任务规划模型。考虑到对无人机群负载均衡的需求,融合和改进了K-means聚类算法和市场拍卖机制,形成一种综合考虑路程消耗和任务消耗的均衡聚类市场拍卖算法。在拍卖过程中引入平衡参数,通过计算旅行商问题来修正平衡参数,保证无人机群在负载均衡的同时整体成本不断降低。仿真结果表明,使用均衡聚类市场拍卖机制的任务规划方法能够在较短时间内完成异构无人机群的复杂任务规划,保证无人机群负载均衡的同时,整体成本和总时间上也有较好表现,具有一定的实际应用价值。     

某工厂宿舍楼建筑结构裂缝分析

在建筑密集区进行深基坑开挖,不可避免地会对周边既有建筑物产生不利影响。为了探明某工厂宿舍楼结构损坏的原因,通过现场调查、结构检测、建筑物位移监测以及核查相邻在建工程项目的施工资料,对损坏原因进行了综合分析,发现建筑物结构损坏随时间发展呈明显的阶段性变化,规律性较强。根据现场检测,结合相关勘察报告,重点分析了裂缝产生原因为建筑物所处地基受相邻工程影响产生了滑移。该案例介绍的结构损伤分析方法具有较强的参考和借鉴意义。     

Criteria and approximate methods for path-constrained moving-target search problems

A search is conducted for a target moving in discrete time among a finite number of cells according to a known Markov process. The searcher must choose one cell in which to search in each time period. The set of cells available for search depends upon the cell chosen in the last time period. The problem is to find a search path, i.e., a sequence of search cells, that either maximizes the probability of detection or minimizes the mean number of time periods required for detection. The search problem is modelled as a partially observable Markov decision process and several approximate solutions procedures are proposed. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An indicator of combat success

Assessing the effects of changes in weapons systems or battle tactics is difficult because of the variations in battles and the resulting instability of measures of combat effectiveness. Even under the relatively stable conditions of designed combat exercises, traditional measures may fail to reflect important battle events and dynamics. This variation in results makes the design, conduct, and evaluation of combat experiments, combat simulations, and combat training exercises a challenging endeavor, indeed. We develop and examine a combat measure of effectiveness, based on Lanchester models, which we call the battle trace. The battle trace is a measure of ongoing battle results, measured as a function of time into the battle. We describe how such measures might contribute to assessing effects of changing certain battle parameters. We suggest applications of these ideas to developing combat simulations and to enhancing combat training exercises.     

Simulation of stochastic activity networks using path control variates

This article details several procedures for using path control variates to improve the accuracy of simulation-based point and confidence-interval estimators of the mean completion time of a stochastic activity network (SAN). Because each path control variate is the duration of the corresponding directed path in the network from the source to the sink, the vector of selected path controls has both a known mean and a known covariance matrix. This information is incorporated into estimation procedures for both normal and nonnormal responses. To evaluate the performance of these procedures experimentally, we examine the bias, variance, and mean square error of the controlled point estimators as well as the average half-length and coverage probability of the corresponding confidence-interval estimators for a set of SANs in which the following characteristics are systematically varied: (a) the size of the network (number of nodes and arcs); (b) the topology of the network; (c) the percentage of activities with exponentially distributed durations; and (d) the relative dominance of the critical path. The experimental results show that although large improvements in accuracy can be achieved with some of these procedures, the confidence-interval estimators for normal responses may suffer serious loss of coverage probability in some applications.     

Cumulative search-evasion games

Cumulative search-evasion games (CSEGs) are two-person zero-sum search-evasion games where play proceeds throughout some specified period without interim feedback to either of the two players. Each player moves according to a preselected plan. If (X_t, Y_t,) are the positions of the two players at time t, then the game's payoff is the sum over t from 1 to T of A(X_t, Y_t, t). Additionally, all paths must be “connected.” That is, the finite set of positions available for a player in any time period depends on the position selected by that player in the previous time period. One player attempts to select a mixed strategy over the feasible T-time period paths to maximize the expected payoff. The other minimizes. Two solution procedures are given. One uses the Brown-Robinson method of fictitious play and the other linear programming. An example problem is solved using both procedures.     

FDIA对雷达组网系统数据融合的影响分析

雷达组网系统将多部雷达组成互联互通的网络,作为典型的赛博物理系统,同样面临着赛博攻击的威胁。为了研究赛博攻击对其性能产生的影响,构建针对雷达组网系统交互式多模型(IMM)数据融合的虚假数据注入攻击(FDIA)模型。建立机动目标动态模型,以及单站雷达和雷达组网系统基于交互式多模型融合算法的分布式数据处理模型。分析虚假数据注入攻击的原理,并建立对应的数学模型。根据机动目标动态模型,进行实验仿真,结果显示虚假数据注入攻击对单站雷达目标状态估计的影响,明显大于对组网雷达目标状态融合估计的影响,验证了雷达组网系统数据融合对于虚假数据注入攻击具有一定的鲁棒性。