Control-variate selection criteria

For multiresponse simulations requiring point and confidence-region estimators of the mean response, we propose control-variate selection criteria that minimize mean-square confidence-region volume in two situations: (a) Only the mean control vector is known, and standard linear control-variate estimation procedures are used. (b) Covariances among controls are also known and are incorporated into new linear control-variate estimation procedures. An example illustrates the performance of these selection criteria.     

Book reviews

America's Secret Power: the CIA in a Democratic Society. By Loch K. Johnson. Oxford University Press, New York (1989), ISBN 0–19–505490–3, $24.95

The Bundeswehr and Western Security. Edited by Stephen F. Szabo. Houndmills, Basingstoke, and Macmillan, London (1990), ISBN 0–333–49880–1, £45.00

Symbolic Defense: the Cultural Significance of the Strategic Defense Initiative. By Edward Tabor Linenthal. University of Illinois Press, Chicago, IL (1989), ISBN 0–252–01619‐X, $19.95

Rethinking European Security. Edited by Furio Cerutti and Rodolfo Ragionieri. Crane Russak, New York (1990), £29.00

Alternative Conventional Defense Postures in the European Theater, Vol. 1: The Military Balance and Domestic Constraints. Edited by Hans Günter Brauch and Robert Kennedy, Crane Russak, New York (1990), £32.00

The Gulf War. Edited by Hanns Maull and Otto Pick. Pinter, London (1989), ISBN 0–86187–763–2, £36.00     

Using a birth‐and‐death process to estimate the steady‐state distribution of a periodic queue

If the number of customers in a queueing system as a function of time has a proper limiting steady‐state distribution, then that steady‐state distribution can be estimated from system data by fitting a general stationary birth‐and‐death (BD) process model to the data and solving for its steady‐state distribution using the familiar local‐balance steady‐state equation for BD processes, even if the actual process is not a BD process. We show that this indirect way to estimate the steady‐state distribution can be effective for periodic queues, because the fitted birth and death rates often have special structure allowing them to be estimated efficiently by fitting parametric functions with only a few parameters, for example, 2. We focus on the multiserver M_t/GI/s queue with a nonhomogeneous Poisson arrival process having a periodic time‐varying rate function. We establish properties of its steady‐state distribution and fitted BD rates. We also show that the fitted BD rates can be a useful diagnostic tool to see if an M_t/GI/s model is appropriate for a complex queueing system. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 664–685, 2015     

The (s,Q) inventory model with Erlang lead time and deterministic demand

We develop a simple, approximately optimal solution to a model with Erlang lead time and deterministic demand. The method is robust to misspecification of the lead time and has good accuracy. We compare our approximate solution to the optimal for the case where we have prior information on the lead‐time distribution, and another where we have no information, except for computer‐generated sample data. It turns out that our solution is as easy as the EOQ's, with an accuracy rate of 99.41% when prior information on the lead‐time distribution is available and 97.54–99.09% when only computer‐generated sample information is available. Apart from supplying the inventory practitioner with an easy heuristic, we gain insights into the efficacy of stochastic lead time models and how these could be used to find the cost and a near‐optimal policy for the general model, where both demand rate and lead time are stochastic. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004