A queueing system with multiple service time distributions

This paper explores a modification of the output discipline for the Poisson input, exponential output, single channel, first-come, first-served queueing system. Instead, the service time distribution of customers beginning service when alone in the system is considered different from that governing service times of all other customers. More specifically, the service times of lone customers are governed by a one parameter gamma distribution, while the service times of all other customers are exponentially ajstributed. The generating function for the steady-state probsbilities, n_j = Pr { j customers in system at an arbitrary point of departure}, of the imbedded chain, {X_n/X_n = number in system after nth customer is serviced}, is obtained, and the steady-state probabilities, themselves, are found in closed form.     

Time-cost tradeoffs in uncertain empirical research projects

This paper explores the relationship between research project cost and expected time to completion under various scheduling strategies; it assumes that many potential technical approaches to the research problem can be identified; and that each approach has a low but finite subjective probability of success. It is shown that under a variety of assumptions, expected time to project completion can be reduced, but that as a result expected project cost rises at an increasing rate. Some cases in which this convex time-cost tradeoff relationship might not hold generally are identified. When the time-cost tradeoff function is convex, the desirability of concurrent as opposed to series scheduling of approaches depends crucially upon the depth of the stream of benefits expected to be realized upon successful project completion. The deeper the benefit stream is, the more desirable concurrent scheduling is.     

Terrorism,Radicalisation and Moral Panics: Media and Academic Analysis and Reporting of 2016 and 2017 ‘Terrorism’

Radicalism or radicalisation has become a serious political and academic theme in recent years and any incident involving Muslims now almost automatically acquires the cachet, as events in 2016 and 2017 have shown. However, despite vast sums and resources expended on the subject no one can define what they mean by ‘it’. This should make us pause and question what precisely it is that causes so much alarm and is it worth the resources, time and effort employed to respond to it?     

Institutions,information, and commitment: the role of democracy in conflict

This paper explores the hypothesis that both the preexisting quality of democracy in a polity at the onset of conflict and the quality of democracy expected to emerge in the aftermath influence the likelihood of civil war. An empirical investigation of the hypothesis presents a challenge due to concerns of endogeneity and selection: the post-conflict level of democracy is endogenous to the pre-conflict level. Further, for a given time period, either a number of countries have not experienced civil war; or if they did, did not resolve the conflict. We overcome this selection bias by implementing a three-step extension to the Heckman procedure using an unbalanced cross-country panel of 77 countries over the period 1971–2005. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that a standard deviation improvement in the existing level of democracy reduces the probability of civil war by approximately 9 percentage points and a corresponding improvement in expected post-conflict democratization increases the probability of conflict by approximately 48 percentage points.     

Using multiple searchers in constrained-path,moving-target search problems

The search theory open literature has paid little, if any, attention to the multiple-searcher, moving-target search problem. We develop an optimal branch-and-bound procedure and six heuristics for solving constrained-path problems with multiple searchers. Our optimal procedure outperforms existing approaches when used with only a single searcher. For more than one searcher, the time needed to guarantee an optimal solution is prohibitive. Our heuristics represent a wide variety of approaches: One solves partial problems optimally, two use paths based on maximizing the expected number of detections, two are genetic algorithm implementations, and one is local search with random restarts. A heuristic based on the expected number of detections obtains solutions within 2% of the best known for each one-, two-, and three-searcher test problem considered. For one- and two-searcher problems, the same heuristic's solution time is less than that of other heuristics. For three-searcher problems, a genetic algorithm implementation obtains the best-known solution in as little as 20% of other heuristic solution times. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An algorithm for optimal shipments with given frequencies

This article deals with the problem of minimizing the transportation and inventory cost associated with the shipment of several products from a source to a destination, when a finite set of shipping frequencies is available. A mixed-integer programming model—shown to be NP-hard—is formulated for that problem. The computational complexity of some similar models applied to different problems is also investigated. In particular, whereas the capacitated plant location problem with operational cost in product form is NP-hard, the simple plant location problem with the same characteristics can be solved in polynomial time. A branch-and-bound algorithm is finally worked out, and some computational results are presented. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Measuring newness

This article deals with “newness,” an important characteristic of research-and-development (R&D) projects. Newness consumes resources and provides effectiveness or profit, and is mainly considered to be of a qualitative nature yielding only to an expert's intuition. This article is focused on a numerical measure of newness and the closely connected concept of technological advance. The measure is described in a technical parameter space against a set of analogous objects, presented by its center, eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Specific features and behavior of the selected measure of newness are analyzed. A numerical example is also included. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Modified fictitious play

We describe a modification of Brown's fictitious play method for solving matrix (zero-sum two-person) games and apply it to both symmetric and general games. If the original game is not symmetric, the basic idea is to transform the given matrix game into an equivalent symmetric game (a game with a skew-symmetric matrix) and use the solution properties of symmetric games (the game value is zero and both players have the same optimal strategies). The fictitious play method is then applied to the enlarged skew-symmetric matrix with a modification that calls for the periodic restarting of the process. At restart, both players' strategies are made equal based on the following considerations: Select the maximizing or minimizing player's strategy that has a game value closest to zero. We show for both symmetric and general games, and for problems of varying sizes, that the modified fictitious play (MFP) procedure approximates the value of the game and optimal strategies in a greatly reduced number of iterations and in less computational time when compared to Brown's regular fictitious play (RFP) method. For example, for a randomly generated 50% dense skew-symmetric 100 × 100 matrix (symmetric game), with coefficients |a_ij| ≤ 100, it took RFP 2,652,227 iterations to reach a gap of 0.03118 between the lower and upper bounds for the game value in 70.71 s, whereas it took MFP 50,000 iterations to reach a gap of 0.03116 in 1.70 s. Improved results were also obtained for general games in which the MFP solves a much larger equivalent symmetric game. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimal strategies for problems of simultaneous attack against an area defense without impact-point prediction

An area to be defended consists of separated point targets. These targets are subject to an attack in which the offensive weapons are assumed to arrive simultaneously. The defense has area defenders, each of which is capable of intercepting any attacker. The defense has no impact-point prediction; that is, it has no knowledge of any attacker's destination prior to allocation of area interceptors. For a given attack, the defense wishes to allocate its interceptors to maximize the total expected survival value of the targets. For a given attack size, the offense seeks a strategy to minimize total expected surviving value against best defense. We determine an optimal defensive strategy directly and develop an algorithm to determine an optimal attack and the optimal value of the min-max problem. A dynamic programming technique is used to obtain integer solutions, and illustrative computational results are provided.