Linear search with bounded resources

A point is placed at random on the real line according to some known distribution F, and a search is made for this point, beginning at some starting points s on the line, and moving along the line according to some function x(t). The objective of this article is to maximize the probability of finding the point while traveling at most d units. Characterizations of simple optimal searches are found for arbitrary distributions, for continuous distributions with continuous density everywhere (e.g., normal, Cauchy, triangular), and for continuous distributions with density which is continuous on its support (e.g., exponential, uniform). These optimal searches are also shown to be optimal for maximization of the expected number of points found if the points are placed on the line independently from a known distribution F.     

Application of dirichlet integrals for curtailment problems in sampling inspection

The standard problem in sampling inspection is to consider plans with and without curtailment. Curtailment causes difficulty and authors rarely give exact results (i.e., exact OC and ASN functions) for curtailed procedures. In this article we regard curtailment as an inverse sampling procedure and use Dirichlet integrals to obtain exact formulas for the OC, the ASN, and also the variance of the number of observations required under three types of plans: no curtailment, semicurtailment (for rejection only) and two-sided curtailment. Different sections of the article deal with the single sample, the two-stage, and the multiple-stage sampling problems. New tables for carrying out the single-sample procedure are included in the article. The authors feel that this article presents new directions and new ways of dealing with problems associated with quality control.     

Optimal cutoff strategies in capacity expansion problems

Capacity expansion refers to the process of adding facilities or manpower to meet increasing demand. Typical capacity expansion decisions are characterized by uncertain demand forecasts and uncertainty in the eventual cost of expansion projects. This article models capacity expansion within the framework of piecewise deterministic Markov processes and investigates the problem of controlling investment in a succession of same type projects in order to meet increasing demand with minimum cost. In particular, we investigate the optimality of a class of investment strategies called cutoff strategies. These strategies have the property that there exists some undercapacity level M such that the strategy invests at the maximum available rate at all levels above M and does not invest at any level below M. Cutoff strategies are appealing because they are straightforward to implement. We determine conditions on the undercapacity penalty function that ensure the existence of optimal cutoff strategies when the cost of completing a project is exponentially distributed. A by-product of the proof is an algorithm for determining the optimal strategy and its cost. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Equipment replacement under technological change

For infinite-horizon replacement economy problems it is common practice to truncate the problem at some finite horizon. We develop bounds on the error due to such a truncation. These bounds differ from previous results in that they include both revenues and costs. Bounds are illustrated through a numerical example from a real case in vehicle replacement. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimal strategies for problems of simultaneous attack against an area defense with impact-point prediction

An area to be defended consists of separated point targets. These targets are subject to an attack in which the offensive weapons are assumed to arrive simultaneously. The defense has area defenders, each of which is capable of intercepting any attacker'. Furthermore, the defense has impact-point prediction, i.e., it has knowledge of each attacker's intended target prior to allocation of the area interceptors. For a given attack, the defense wishes to allocate its interceptors against attackers so as to maximize the expected total survival value of the targets. In its first move, the offense seeks an attack allocation which will minimize expected total surviving value against best defense. We develop an algorithm to determine optimal attack and defense strategies and the optimal value of this sequential min-max problem. Branch-and-bound techniques are used to obtain integer solutions, and illustrative computational results are provided.     

An economic selective assembly procedure for two mating components with equal variance

An economic procedure of selective assembly is proposed when a product is composed of two mating components. The major quality characteristic of the product is the clearance between the two components. The components are divided into several classes prior to assembly. The component characteristics are assumed to be independently and normally distributed with equal variance. The procedure is designed so that the proportions of both components in their corresponding classes are the same. A cost model is developed based on a quadratic loss function and methods of obtaining the optimal class limits as well as the optimal number of classes are provided. Formulas for obtaining the proportion of rejection and the unavailability of mating components are also provided. The proposed model is compared with the equal width and the equal area partitioning methods using a numerical example. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 809–821, 1999     

The value of observing the condition of a deteriorating machine

We examine a small lot production setting in which a machine may go out of control and begin producing defective units. Traditionally, managers have had to rely upon observations of the quality of the output to determine whether the machine is in or out of control. However, with advances in technology such as vibration analysis, it is increasingly possible to obtain much more accurate information about the state of the machine. In this paper, we model and analyze a deteriorating machine in order to gain insight into the conditions under which investments in such technology are most beneficial. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 790–808, 1999     

Optimal nonmyopic gambling strategy for the generalized Kelly criterion

We consider the optimal wagers to be made by a gambler who starts with a given initial wealth. The gambler faces a sequence of two-outcome games, i.e., “win” vs. “lose,” and wishes to maximize the expected value of his terminal utility. It has been shown by Kelly, Bellman, and others that if the terminal utility is of the form log x, where x is the terminal wealth, then the optimal policy is myopic, i.e., the optimal wager is always to bet a constant fraction of the wealth provided that the probability of winning exceeds the probability of losing. In this paper we provide a critique of the simple logarithmic assumption for the utility of terminal wealth and solve the problem with a more general utility function. We show that in the general case, the optimal policy is not myopic, and we provide analytic expressions for optimal wager decisions in terms of the problem parameters. We also provide conditions under which the optimal policy reduces to the simple myopic case. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 639–654, 1997