Landmarks in defense literature

The Face of Battle: by John Keegan. Jonathan Cape, London, 1976; Viking Press, New York, 1976; Penguin Books, Harmondsworth, 1978, 1983, 1984.     

Geometric programming with multiplicative slack variables

A posynomial geometric programming problem formulated so that the number of objective function terms is equal to the number of primal variables will have a zero degree of difficulty when augmented by multiplying each constraint term by a slack variable and including a surrogate constraint composed of the product of the slack variables, each raised to an undetermined negative exponent or surrogate multiplier. It is assumed that the original problem is canonical. The exponents in the constraint on the product of the slack variables must be estimated so that the associated solution to the augmented problem, obtained immediately, also solves the original problem. An iterative search procedure for finding the required exponents, thus solving the original problem, is described. The search procedure has proven quite efficient, often requiring only two or three iterations per degree of difficulty of the original problem. At each iteration the well-known procedure for solving a geometric programming problem with a zero degree of difficulty is used and so computations are simple. The solution generated at each iteration is optimal for a problem which differs from the original problem only in the values of some of the constraint coefficients, so intermediate solutions provide useful information.     

Heterogeneous discrete expenditure for diminishing returns

A probabilistic model is developed that applies to military bombardment, advertising for a mass audience, and other kinds of situations in which striking a target means that less of it is left to strike. The model provides the basis for decision analysis based on marginal gain in such circumstances. Heterogneous resources are considered as well as composite targets. All expenditures are quantized. The model has been developed as part of a computer-based military expert system, to replace a large complex set of expert opinions. In that application it sharply improves efficiency, yet conforms to major tenets of tactical doctrine.     

Multiechelon repairable-item provisioning in a time-varying environment using the randomization technique

Multiechelon repairable-item provisioning systems are considered under a time-varying environment. Such conditions could arise, for example, in a military context where a shift from peacetime operation to wartime operation takes place; or, in a civilian setting where a public transit system decides to increase its hours of operation or frequency of service. Exact Markovian models, incorporating a finite population of repairable components and limited repair capacity (nonample service), are treated, with transient solutions obtained using the randomization technique. The exact models are compared with the approximate Dyna-METRIC model which assumes an infinite population of components and ample repair capacity.     

An optimum t-test for the scale parameter of an extreme-value distribution

A Student's t-test proposed by Ogawa is considered for the hypothesis Ho: σ=σo against the alternative hypothesis H₁: σ ≠ σo, where σ is the scale parameter of the Extremevalue distribution of smallest values with known location parameter μ. The test is based on a few sample quantiles chosen from a large sample so as to give asymptotically maximum power to the test when the number of sample quantiles is fixed. A table which facilitates the computation of the test statistic is given. Several schemes for determining the ranks of the sample quantiles by the optimal spacings are compared and the effect of the bias of the estimate of σ on the test is investigated through a Monte Carlo study.     

On the output of parallel exponential service channels

The paper treats the output process of a service center that has a large number of independent exponential channels in parallel. Initially all channels are working and there is a fixed backlog of items awaiting service. The moments are derived and central limit theorems are developed. Problems of computation are discussed and suitable formulae are developed. The joint distribution of the output of the center with the center's total busy time and total idle time are derived. Normal approximations to these distributions are presented.     

A cost-benefit analysis of military aircraft replacement policies

This paper describes a method of solving aircraft service life problems. The particular application concerns aircraft in the Naval Advanced Jet Training Command. The method of solution is comparative present value analysis of alternative replacement policies. The likely risks of estimation errors are reflected in the comparisons of present values. Differences are noted in the benefits associated with each policy, but external to Naval Aviation. Since the values of these benefits can be determined only at a higher level of decision-making, the result of the study is not a conclusive selection among policies, but a schedule of present values on the basis of which, together with values of the external benefits, a decision can be reached. This paper discusses replacement policies for aircraft used in the Naval Advanced Jet Pilot Training mission. Taking engineering technology and the training syllabus as given, four feasible plans for introducing replacement aircraft into service are evaluated in terms of the present values of differential costs associated with the plans and in terms of the likely errors in cost estimates used in calculation of the present values. The trade-off between present value of costs and planning flexibility is emphasized in choosing a recommended time pattern of aircraft replacement. The specific aircraft mixes considered are the TF–9J/TAF–9J and the TA–4F/A–4B. The first is the currently employed mix; the second is the proposed replacement. The problem is to select an optimal time-pattern of replacement of F–9's by A–4's, given technological differences favoring the A–4 and increasing costs of maintaining squadrons of F–9's. Replacements by aircraft types other than the A–4 are considered impractical. Four feasible plans for introducing A–4's through a 5-year period are evaluated in terms of current best estimates of the related costs of the plans and in terms of the flexibility of modifying each plan given future better information concerning the relevant costs. The method of analysis is comparative present value of expected costs.