Economic impact and the notion of compensated procurement

The paper consists essentially of two parts. In the first part a linear economic impact model is presented whose structure is based on subcontracting flows. The structural coefficients are defined in terms of flows per area. The model is derived from two identities that are analogous to the income and expenditure identities of national income accounting. The parameters are prime contracts and when one or several of the prime contracts are changed, the model determines the impacts of such changes on the various regions that have been selected. The impacts can be combined with regional multipliers to derive changes in regional income and regional employment. Fragmentary data for this kind of model have been collected on a one-time basis by DOD in 1965 and some results based on the data are presented. The second part of the paper is concerned with normative economics. A scheme is suggested, called compensated procurement, that outlines how the Department of Defense might employ the impact model in a macroeconomic setting. The basic idea is that a stabilization fund be established to finance an array of potential projects which are contracted for to balance sudden shifts in defense demand. Only short-run stabilization is advocated.     

Some comparative & design aspects of fixed cycle production systems

A serial production line is defined wherein a unit is produced if, and only if, all machines are functioning. A single buffer stock with finite capacity is to be placed immediately after one of the first N-1 machines in the N machine line. When all machines have equal probability of failure it is shown that the optimal buffer position is exactly in the middle of the line. This result is synthesized with the earlier work of Koenigsberg and Buzacott including an analysis of the covariance between transition states. An alternative model formulation is presented and integrated with previous results. Finally, a sufficient condition and solution procedure is derived for the installation of a buffer where there is a possible trade-off between increasing the reliability of the line versus adding a buffer stock.     

Zero-sum games with multiple goals

This paper investigates a class of two-person zero-sum multiple payoff games in which each component is deterministic. The problem of minimizing a player's total underachievement of a fixed set of goals is shown to reduce to a linear programming problem. Applications are discussed and illustrative examples are presented.     

A linear programming model for design of communications networks with time varying probabilistic demands

In this paper marginal investment costs are assumed known for two kinds of equipment stocks employed to supply telecommunications services: trunks and switching facilities. A network hierarchy is defined which includes important cases occurring in the field and also appearing in the literature. A different use of the classical concept of the marginal capacity of an additional trunk at prescribed blocking probability leads to a linear programming supply model which can be used to compute the sizes of all the high usage trunk groups. The sizes of the remaining trunk groups are approximated by the linear programming models, but can be determined more accurately by alternate methods once all high usage group sizes are computed. The approach applies to larger scale networks than previously reported in the literature and permits direct application of the duality theory of linear programming and its sensitivity analyses to the study and design of switched probabilistic communications networks with multiple busy hours during the day. Numerical results are presented for two examples based on field data, one of which having been designed by the multi-hour engineering method.     

Estimating reliability growth (or deterioration) using time series analysis

In this paper we propose a method for estimating reliability growth (or deterioration) using time series analysis. Our method does not call for the specification of a particular model, and estimates the growth in the presence of periodicity. We illustrate our procedure by considering some binomial failure data generated during the testing of a large system of the U.S. Navy.     

The mixed ordering policy in periodic review stochastic multi-commodity inventory systems

In multi-commodity inventory systems with variable setup costs, the mixed ordering policy assumes that commodities may be ordered either individually, or may be arbitrarily grouped for joint ordering. Thus, for a two-commodity system, commodity one or commodity two or commodities one and two may be ordered incurring respectively fixed order costs of K, K₁, or K₂, where max (K₁, K₂) ≤ K ≤ K₁ + K₂, This paper considers a two-commodity periodic review system. The stationary characteristics of the system are analyzed, and, for a special case, explicit solutions are obtained for the distribution of the stock levels at the beginning of the periods. In a numerical example, optimal policy variables are computed, and the mixed ordering policy is compared with individual and joint ordering policies.     

A note on duality in homogeneous fractional programming

For a linear fractional programming problem, Sharma and Swarup have constructed a dual problem, also a linear fractional program, in which the objective functions of both primal and dual problems are the same. Craven and Mond have extended this result to a nonlinear fractional programming problem with linear constraints, and a dual problem for which the objective function is the same as that of the primal. This theorem is now further extended from linear to differentiable convex constraints.     

Some results of the queueing system E/M/c

This paper analyses the E/M/c queueing system and shows how to calculate the expected number in the system, both at a random epoch and immediately preceding an arrival. These expectations are expressed in terms of certain initial probabilities which are determined by linear equations. The advantages and disadvantages of this method are also discussed.     

Scheduling coupled tasks

Consider a set of task pairs coupled in time: a first (initial) and second (completion) tasks of known durations with a specified time between them. If the operator or machine performing these tasks is able to process only one at a time, scheduling is necessary to insure that no overlap occurs. This problem has a particular application to production scheduling, transportation, and radar operations (send-receive pulses are ideal examples of time-linked tasks requiring scheduling). This article discusses several candidate techniques for schedule determination, and these are evaluated in a specific radar scheduling application.     

The M/G/1 queue with instantaneous bernoulli feedback

In this paper we are concerned with several random processes that occur in M/G/1 queues with instantaneous feedback in which the feedback decision process is a Bernoulli process. Queue length processes embedded at various times are studied. It is shown that these do not all have the same asymptotic distribution, and that in general none of the output, input, or feedback processes is renewal. These results have implications in the application of certain decomposition results to queueing networks.