Utility assessment procedures for polynomial-exponential functions

This article develops a methodology for testing constant exchange risk properties and identifying an appropriate form for a decision maker's utility function. These risk properties characterize six different utility functions which are sums of products of polynomials and exponential functions. Such functional forms are commonly used in decision analysis applications. The practical advantage of this methodology is that these constant exchange risk properties eliminate the usual arbitrariness in the selection of a parametric utility function and often reduce the data requirements for subsequent estimation. The procedure is straightforward to apply. The decision maker need only provide certainty equivalents for two-outcome gambles and determine the more-preferred gamble in paired comparisons. The technical details of the procedure can be handled by interactive computer software.     

The cost of production breaks

Disruptions in the production process can have a serious impact on production costs. Most of the previous literature which addresses the cost impact of production breaks attributes the observed increase in costs solely to “loss of learning.” We develop a mathematical model which implies that breaks in the unit learning curve can occur because of a production break, even under the assumption of no forgetting. In such cases, increases in unit cost can be caused by decreasing returns as the amount of time available to meet the delivery schedule decreases due to the production break.     

The divisionalized firm revisited—A comment on Enzer's “the static theory of transfer pricing”

Three different solutions to a very simple transfer pricing problem are outlined and contrasted. These are labeled by their authors: Hirshleifer, Enzer, and Ronen and McKinney. Weaknesses associated with each solution are pointed out.     

A heuristic network procedure for the assembly line balancing problem

Proposed is a Heuristic Network (HN) Procedure for balancing assembly lines. The procedure uses simple heuristic rules to generate a network which is then traversed using a shortest route algorithm to obtain a heuristic solution. The advantages of the HN Procedure are: a) it generally yields better solutions than those obtained by application of the heuristics, and b) sensitivity analysis with different values of cycle time is possible without having to regenerate the network. The rationale for its effectiveness and its application to problems with paralleling are presented. Computational experience with the procedure on up to 50 task test problems is provided.     

Book reviews

The Balkanization of the West: The Confluence of Postmodernism and Postcommunism By Stjepan G. Mestrovic, Routledge, London (1994). ISBN: 0-414-08755-4, Price £40.00 hardback, £13.99 paperback.

A Naval History of World War I By Professor Paul G. Halpern, UCL Press, 1994. pp. 624 ISBN 1-85728-295-7. Price £25.00

Arms Watch - SIPRI Report on the First Year of the UN Register of Conventional Arms By Edward J. Laurance, Siemon T. Wezeman and Herbert Wulf, Oxford University Press for SIPRI (1993) ISBN 019-829-1795, Price £25.00 hardback, £16.50 paperback.

A League of Airmen By J. A. Winnefeld, (Ed.), RAND, Santa Monica, ISBN 08330-1503-6, Price $30.00 (Hardcover) $15.00 (Softcover)     

A stochastic constrained optimal replacement model

In this paper a stochastically constrained replacement model is formulated. This model determines a sequence of replacement dates such that the total “current account” cost of all future costs and capital expenditures over an infinite time horizon for the n initial incumbent machines is minimized subject to the constraints that an expected number of machines are in a chosen utility class at any point in time. We then indicate one possible solution method for the model.     

Attack and defense of ICBMs deceptively based in a number of identical areas

On-site verification of ICBMs in the context of an arms control agreement might involve a situation where an inspector would choose one or more of a number of identical areas to inspect and would have confidence that the other areas had the same characteristics. This article considers optimal attack and defense of missiles deceptively based in a number of identical areas. The attacker may allocate warheads across areas as he desires and uniformly within areas. The defender may allocate interceptors across areas as he desires and either uniformly or preferentially within areas. The effect of restricting the defender to uniform allocation across areas is explored for various assumptions. Robustness of surviving missiles with respect to the number of attacking warheads is studied. Results are presented for a wide range of cases.