A RANDOM RATIONING MECHANISM WHICH REDUCES THE RISKS OF NO SON LEFT AT HOME

This paper empirically re‐examines the long‐run co‐movements and the causal relationships between GDP and defence expenditures in a multivariate model with real defence expenditure per capita (ME), real GDP per capita (GDP), and real capital stock per capita (K). We apply the view of the aggregate production function to construct the empirical model. Using up‐to‐date data for 27 OECD countries and 62 non‐OECD countries for the 1988–2003 period, we combine cross‐sectional and time series data to re‐investigate the relationship between GDP and ME. Previous studies using time series data may have yielded misleading results on account of the short time span of typical datasets. By contrast, we use recently developed panel unit root tests and heterogeneous panel cointegration tests, and conclude that there is fairly strong evidence in favour of the hypothesis of a long‐run equilibrium relationship between GDP and ME. The long‐run panel regression parameter results, such as the fully modified OLS, indicate that a positive relationship between GDP and ME only holds for OECD countries, whereas a negative relationship from ME to GDP only exists in non‐OECD countries under examination and in the panel as a whole. Furthermore, by implementing the dynamic panel‐based error correction model, we determine that GDP and ME lack short‐run causalities, but do show long‐run bidirectional causalities in both OECD and non‐OECD countries.     

THE LONG‐RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENCE EXPENDITURES AND GDP IN TAIWAN

Using the Solow–Swan growth model and the time‐trend included in the aggregate production function, this study applies the multivariate cointegration approach to re‐investigate the long‐run and causal relationships between defence expenditures and GDP while controlling for capital and labour input in Taiwan during the 1955–2002 period. It examines the long‐run causal relationship using the weak exogeneity test and utilizes general impulse response functions to determine whether a shock to defence expenditures affects economic growth or vice versa. Our findings provide substantive evidence in favour of the existence of a long‐run equilibrium cointegrated relationship between defence expenditures, GDP, labour and capital stock. The results of the weak exogeneity test indicate that a bi‐directional causal relationship exists in the long‐run between defence expenditures and GDP. Thus, the main policy implication that emerges from the long‐run results is that increasing defence expenditures in Taiwan is an effective means to boost overall economic performance and, with this improved economy, it should then be able to increase its defence expenditures further. Lastly, from our dynamic vector error correction model estimations, it is found that defence expenditures are a major means of adjusting for disequilibria that occur within the system.     

EFFECTS OF MILITARY SPENDING ON THE PROFITABILITY OF SPANISH DEFENCE CONTRACTORS

The traditional view of the defence industry obtaining large profits from contracts with the Ministry of Defence relies on several assumptions. Among these are the use of such arrangements as an instrument of industrial policy, the strong market power enjoyed by prime contractors, and the inefficiency encouraged by the sector. The findings show that defence contracts have a positive effect on profits, as well as the prizes for innovation and the market power enjoyed by some defence subsectors.     

MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: GRANGER CAUSALITY TESTS USING GLOBAL PANEL DATA

This paper investigates the empirical relationships between military expenditure and unemployment rates. A set of global panel data on 46 countries is utilized, and a panel data version of the Granger causality test is applied. The results indicate that there is little evidence of the causality running from unemployment to military expenditure regardless of how we measure military spending and determine group countries. In contrast, the causality running from military expenditure to unemployment receives empirical support if military expenditure is measured in terms of its share of GDP and if data are taken from middle‐ and low‐income countries or non‐OECD countries.     

Export controls,market structure and international coordination

We look at the different ways of aggregating the exports of dual use products to give the security perception of exporter countries and their consistency with the relevant export control regimes. Also, we analyze different models of export controls highlighting the role of the perception of security, market structure and competition between exporting firms in determining the existence of multiple equilibria and therefore, the need for coordination between countries in setting export controls.     

机动管线流量在线实时监测技术研究

输送流量在线实时监测是准确掌握机动管线运行工况、优化运行方案、分析判断泄漏的关键之一。分析了容积式、速度式和差压式等常用流量监测技术的技术特征与使用条件,根据机动管线的作业特点和要求,优选出涡街流量监测技术作为该管线系统的流量在线实时监测技术;分析了机动管线输送过程中管道振动对涡街流量计计量精度的影响,提出了几种不同的抗振防干扰技术,并应用于机动管线涡街流量监测装置的研制。样机试验表明,采用抗振技术的涡街流量监测装置检测精度能满足机动管线流量在线实时监测需求。     

基于分形维数的数字调制信号识别

在复杂的电磁环境下,如何快速准确地对低信噪比下的常见通信信号进行较全面的识别是一个亟待解决的问题。在对信号分形维数仿真讨论的基础上,提出了一种新的通信信号识别方法。首先,对接收到的信号进行预处理,然后提取其盒维数和信息维数,将两者作为识别的特征参数,最后基于支持向量机实现未知信号的识别。由仿真结果分析可知:预处理后的信号序列的盒维数和信息维数分离度高且受噪声和信号参数的影响小,识别结果较好。在信噪比为5 dB时,不同调制类型信号间的识别准确率最低为87%。     

大数据趋势下的军队深度信息化建设

以大数据的迅猛发展为背景,结合我军信息化建设的现实问题,深刻分析了大数据在推动我军信息化建设向深度转型过程中的积极作用,并指出在大数据发展趋势下,加快形成大数据意识,充分重视数据建设的主体功能,加强大数据资源的深度开发利用,尽快提出深度信息化建设发展战略是我军下一步信息化建设的核心任务。     

污泥龄对污泥絮体中磷酸盐形态及其动态变化的影响

以污泥龄(SRT)为10 d和30 d的2组A/O-SBR反应器活性污泥为研究对象,探讨了SRT对污泥絮体中磷酸盐形态及其动态变化的影响。结果表明,污泥絮体中的磷主要分布于胞外聚合物(EPS),EPS磷占污泥絮体磷总质量的69.45%~73.36%。正磷酸盐(PO3-4-P)、低分子量聚磷酸盐(LMW Poly-P)和高分子量聚磷酸盐(HMW Poly-P)是污泥絮体磷的主要形态。高SRT(30 d)污泥絮体EPS磷含量明显大于中SRT(10 d),表现为前者较后者有更高的PO3-4-P和HMW Poly-P含量,对应着高SRT(30 d)污泥絮体较中SRT(10 d)有更高的磷含量,前者约为后者的1.37倍。厌氧/好氧反应过程中,中SRT(10 d)污泥絮体EPS磷的厌氧降低量和好氧升高量分别为高SRT(30 d)的1.35倍和1.46倍,主要归因于前者的PO3-4-P和HMW Poly-P较后者有更大的厌氧降低量,而PO3-4-P,LMW Poly-P和HMW Poly-P较后者有更大的好氧升高量,对应着中SRT(10 d)污泥絮体较高SRT(30 d)有更强的厌氧释磷和好氧吸磷能力。