Fully sequential procedures for comparing constrained systems via simulation

We consider the problem of finding the system with the best primary performance measure among a finite number of simulated systems in the presence of a stochastic constraint on a single real‐valued secondary performance measure. Solving this problem requires the identification and removal from consideration of infeasible systems (Phase I) and of systems whose primary performance measure is dominated by that of other feasible systems (Phase II). We use indifference zones in both phases and consider two approaches, namely, carrying out Phases I and II sequentially and carrying out Phases I and II simultaneously, and we provide specific example procedures of each type. We present theoretical results guaranteeing that our approaches (general and specific, sequential and simultaneous) yield the best system with at least a prespecified probability, and we provide a portion of an extensive numerical study aimed at evaluating and comparing the performance of our approaches. The experimental results show that both new procedures are useful for constrained ranking and selection, with neither procedure showing uniform superiority over the other.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

改进的变步长LMS自适应滤波算法分析

通过建立步长因子μ与误差信号e(n)之间的非线性函数关系,提出了一种改进的自适应变步长最小均方(LM S)算法。该算法克服了LM S算法在自适应稳态阶段μ取值偏大的缺陷,具有在误差e(n)接近零处缓慢变化的特点。该算法还具有初始阶段和未知系统时变阶段步长自动增大而稳态时步长很小的特点,解决了收敛时间和稳态误差的矛盾。将该算法对比一般的变步长算法,该改进算法在平稳过程中具有更小的稳态误差,同时还具有更好的跟踪时变系统的能力。     

优先级管理的全双工交换式以太网实时通信

航空电子全双工交换式以太网(AFDX)以其独有的优势在航空航天等领域的应用不断扩展,但是由于通信模式,无法满足实时任务的可预测性和低延迟等要求,因此,研究AFDX的实时性成为一个重要的课题,为了提高网络的实时性最可行的措施就是采取优先级管理模式,对具有优先级的分组传输问题进行了分析,给出了两种优先级排队模型下,不同优先级分组的平均排队等待时间和平均逗留时间,并进行了计算机仿真.得出:采用具有优先级的分组传输模式能很好的提高网络的实时性.     

On the exponentially weighted moving variance

MacGregor and Harris (J Quality Technol 25 (1993) 106–118) proposed the exponentially weighted mean squared deviation (EWMS) and the exponentially weighted moving variance (EWMV) charts as ways of monitoring process variability. These two charts are particularly useful for individual observations where no estimate of variability is available from replicates. However, the control charts derived by using the approximate distributions of the EWMS and EWMV statistics are difficult to interpret in terms of the average run length (ARL). Furthermore, both control charting schemes are biased procedures. In this article, we propose two new control charts by applying a normal approximation to the distributions of the logarithms of the weighted sum of chi squared random variables, which are respectively functions of the EWMS and EWMV statistics. These new control charts are easy to interpret in terms of the ARL. On the basis of the simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed charts are superior to the EWMS and EWMV charts and they both are nearly unbiased for the commonly used smoothing constants. We also compare the performance of the proposed charts with that of the change point (CP) CUSUM chart of Acosta‐Mejia (1995). The design of the proposed control charts is discussed. An example is also given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed control charts. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

国外消防中介组织运作模式及启示

介绍了美国、加拿大、俄罗斯、德国、日本等国消防中介组织运作模式概况及特点,提出了其对我国消防中介组织发展的启示。     

粟裕关于淮海战役的四次重要建议

1948年11月至1949年1月,华东野战军和中原野战军联合举行了淮海战役.在战役开始之前和战役进行中,粟裕先后向中央军委提出4次重要建议:第一,当济南战役尚未结束时,首次提出进行以消灭国民党军徐州"剿总"右翼集团为目标的淮海战役.第二,面对华东、中原两大野战军由战略上配合作战发展为战役上协同作战的现实,主动提出淮海战役由陈毅、邓小平统一指挥.第三,在南线战略决战时机已经成熟的条件下,建议歼灭黄百韬兵团后,将南线国民党军主力抑留在长江以北逐次歼灭,而不要把它赶过长江去.第四,当国民党军最高统帅部积极筹划调兵增援淮海战场,战局有可能逆转的关键时刻,建议由华东野战军抽兵一部,协助中原野战军首先歼灭黄维兵团.这4次重要建议,均被中央军委采纳,对战役的胜利做出了独特的贡献,充分体现了他通观全局.审时度势,善于从战略高度选择和把握作战时机的高超战争指导艺术.     

基于复杂性分析方法框架的陆战Agent模型框架研究

陆战Agent是陆军作战复杂系统ABMS核心的基础要素,如何从系统的复杂性研究出发构建陆战Agent模型,是陆军作战复杂系统ABMS必须要解决的关键问题。以复杂性分析方法框架为指导,通过对陆军作战复杂系统ABMS内在本质和陆战Agent特点的分析,提出陆战Agent模型框架,为陆军作战复杂系统的ABMS奠定基础。     

美军用软件保障综合研究

本文主要叙述了美军用软件的维护与评估、软件保障组织和软件的保障方案及软件的保障研究与实践。     

基于博弈论的装备采购定价激励模型

不同的定价方式和定价参数的选择对于承包商会起到不同程度的激励作用。为提高装备采购效益,在承包商追求效用最大化假设的基础上,建立了装备采购完全信息动态博弈模型。对价格、成本、承包商努力程度和承包商效用之间的关系进行了研究,证明了成本分担和固定价格的定价方式能够有效激励承包商提高自身努力水平降低成本,并提出了2种定价方式的参数定量计算方法。     

On the contribution of defense innovation to China’s economic growth

As the most knowledge-intensive industrial sectors, China’s defense industries are developing very fast. The present paper will explore the contribution of China’s defense innovation to its economic growth. Cobb–Douglas production function, integrating defense and non-defense stock in knowledge, is applied during the course. In addition, an input–output analysis of defense equipment procurement was done. Positive effect of China’s defense innovation on economic growth has been revealed by comparing the results from the two methods. And some suggestions are made to strengthen the effect.