The inherent propensity toward peace or war embodied in weaponry

Thomas Schelling argues that armed adversaries face an inherent propensity toward peace or war embodied in their weaponry, geography and military organizations. Inherent propensity is the idea that there are characteristics embodied in the weapons that push adversaries toward peace or war, independent of the goals of the decision‐makers, the political disagreement between adversaries, and misperceptions about mutual resolve and hostility. We theoretically illustrate inherent propensity in conventional and nuclear arms settings using Lanchester and Intriligator war models. Our work extends the Intriligator‐Brito model, identifies when the competing Richardson and Intriligator‐Brito views of the relationship between arms races and war are correct, illustrates the stabilizing/destabilizing effects of alliances, and highlights the importance of arms quality control in the US‐USSR relationship.     

A simple and untraditional analysis of western alliance burden‐sharing

The original Olson and Zeckhauser model of alliance burden‐sharing was based on the following four assumptions: (1) alliance defence is a pure public good; (2) allied nations make their security contribution decisions without consulting the other allies; (3) alliances produce only a single public good; and (4) alliance defence is produced with equal degrees of efficiency in all alliance nations. But while the first of these assumptions has received a great deal of attention in the alliance literature, the remaining ones have received comparatively less attention, particularly in terms of empirical analyses. This paper synthesizes a varied literature developed around these four assumptions, both substantively and theoretically, and shows that when these assumptions are brought closer to real world approximations, hypotheses regarding the potential for security cooperation with less free‐riding result. This article also provides a simple test of Western alliance burden‐sharing in the areas of military spending, development resources spending, and research and development spending that supports the hypothesis positing more equitable burden‐sharing.     

Scheduling for parallel dedicated machines with a single server

This paper examines scheduling problems in which the setup phase of each operation needs to be attended by a single server, common for all jobs and different from the processing machines. The objective in each situation is to minimize the makespan. For the processing system consisting of two parallel dedicated machines we prove that the problem of finding an optimal schedule is N P‐hard in the strong sense even if all setup times are equal or if all processing times are equal. For the case of m parallel dedicated machines, a simple greedy algorithm is shown to create a schedule with the makespan that is at most twice the optimum value. For the two machine case, an improved heuristic guarantees a tight worst‐case ratio of 3/2. We also describe several polynomially solvable cases of the later problem. The two‐machine flow shop and the open shop problems with a single server are also shown to be N P‐hard in the strong sense. However, we reduce the two‐machine flow shop no‐wait problem with a single server to the Gilmore—Gomory traveling salesman problem and solve it in polynomial time. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 304–328, 2000     

Applying a bootstrap approach for setting reorder points in military supply systems

This paper develops and applies a nonparametric bootstrap methodology for setting inventory reorder points and a simple inequality for identifying existing reorder points that are unreasonably high. We demonstrate that an empirically based bootstrap method is both feasible and calculable for large inventories by applying it to the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force General Account, an inventory consisting of $20–30 million of stock for 10–20,000 different types of items. Further, we show that the bootstrap methodology works significantly better than the existing methodology based on mean days of supply. In fact, we demonstrate performance equivalent to the existing system with a reduced inventory at one‐half to one‐third the cost; conversely, we demonstrate significant improvement in fill rates and other inventory performance measures for an inventory of the same cost. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 459–478, 2000     

The reliability of a series system of repairable subsystems: A bayesian approach

Consider the problem of estimating the reliability of a series system of (possibly) repairable subsystems when test data and historical information are available at the component, subsystem, and system levels. Such a problem is well suited to a Bayesian approach. Martz, Waller, and Fickas [Technometrics, 30 , 143–154 (1988)] presented a Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail (binomial) data at any level. However, other types of test data are often available, including (a) lifetimes of nonrepayable components, and (b) repair histories for repairable subsystems. In this article we describe a new Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail, life, and repair data at any level. We assume a Weibull model for the life data, a censored Weibull model for the pass/fail data, and a power-law process model for the repair data. Consequently, the test data at each level can be represented by a two-parameter likelihood function of a certain form, and historical information can be expressed using a conjugate family of prior distributions. We discuss computational issues, and use the procedure to analyze the reliability of a vehicle system. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Using grasp to solve the component grouping problem

Component grouping problems, a type of set-partitioning problem, arise in a number of different manufacturing and material logistics application areas. For example, in circuit board assembly, robotic work cells can be used to insert components onto a number of different types of circuit boards. Each type of circuit board requires particular components, with some components appearing on more than one type. The problem is to decide which components should be assigned to each work cell in order to minimize the number of visits by circuit boards to work cells. We describe two new heuristics for this problem, based on so-called greedy random adaptive search procedures (GRASP). With GRASP, a local search technique is replicated many times with different starting points. The starting points are determined by a greedy procedure with a probabilistic aspect. The best result is then kept as the solution. Computational experiments on problems based on data from actual manufacturing processes indicate that these GRASP methods outperform, both in speed and in solution quality, an earlier, network-flow-based heuristic. We also describe techniques for generating lower bounds for the component grouping problem, based on the combinatorial structure of a problem instance. The lower bounds for our real-world test problems averaged within 7%-8% of the heuristic solutions. Similar results are obtained for larger, randomly generated problems. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons. Inc.     

Assessment of hazardous-inspection policies

Inspection procedures may at times pose a hazard to the system being monitored. In this article, a simple hazardous-inspection model is considered. The character of the optimal ongoing inspection policy (for inspections subsequent to the first) is reviewed, and the possible forms of the optimal initiation policy are established. Efficient computational procedures are developed for calculating optimal policies. Some discussion is included of the counterintuitive nature of some of the results.     

Compound availability measures

An availability measure is the probability that a two-state system modeled by an alternating renewal process is available at one or more points or intervals. The concept of availability measures is extended to formulae for the joint prediction of availability and numbers of breakdowns (or repairs) of the system during a fixed interval.     

Viability analysis: A formulation aid for all classes of network models

Nonviable network models have edges which are forced to zero flow simply by the pattern of interconnection of the nodes. The original nonviability diagnosis algorithm [4] is extended here to cover all classes of network models, including pure, generalized, pure processing, nonconserving processing, and generalized processing. The extended algorithm relies on the conversion of all network forms to a pure processing form. Efficiency improvements to the original algorithm are also presented.     

A dynamic general linear model for inference from accelerated life tests

We present a new approach for inference from accelerated life tests. Our approach is based on a dynamic general linear model setup which arises naturally from the accelerated life-testing problem and uses linear Bayesian methods for inference. The advantage of the procedure is that it does not require large numbers of items to be tested and that it can deal with both censored and uncensored data. We illustrate the use of our approach with some actual accelerated life-test data. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.