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Manning the nation's armed services will continue to be a crucial issue for the remainder of the 1980s. With the projected growth of the services during this decade, the downturn in the 17–21-year-old male population, and the possible upturn in the economy, the ability of the services to meet their respective quality and quantity recruiting goals becomes of central concern. The accurate estimation of the supply for various types of recruits becomes especially important when one views the nearly $1 billion budgeted annually for recruiting and the impact that any military pay raises can have on the DOD's manpower costs of over $40 billion annually. In addition, perceived difficulties in recruiting can impact on weapon systems design decisions, authorized manning levels, and exacerbate the debate concerning the draft; hence, it is clear that few issues today warrant more attention than improving the efficiency and effectiveness of military recruiting. This article provides an introduction and review of some of the key issues involved in modeling and estimating the supply of military recruits. It summarizes and compares the findings of selected econometric models, all of which are based on enlistment experience since the introduction of the All-Volunteer Force in 1973. It also presents some new insights and directions for research dealing with simultaneity, validation, generation of rigorous confidence intervals, and data base selection. It concludes by listing some of the research needs to be addressed in the future. 相似文献
124.
During the course of the last few years, attacks on the traveling salesman problem have resulted in a variety of often innovative and rather powerful computational procedures. In this article, we present a review of these results for problems defined on weighted and unweighted graphs. Some account of computational behavior for exact algorithms is provided; however, the primary coverage deals with the strategy of particular procedures. In addition, we include some aspects of nonexact algorithms with major interest confined to the establishment of worst-case bounds. 相似文献
125.
Two types of warranties are analyzed. These are the free-replacement warranty, under which failed items are replaced free of charge until a specified total operating time has been achieved, and the pro rata warranty, under which items that fail prior to a specified time are replaced at pro rata cost to the buyer. Both the buyer's and seller's points of view are considered. The basis of the analysis is a comparison of warranted and unwarranted (otherwise identical) items with regard to long-run cost to the buyer and long-run profit to the seller. Application of the results requires knowledge of certain characteristics of the life distribution of the items in question. Parametric and nonparametric methods of estimation of these characteristics from incomplete data are discussed. Single and multiple failure-mode situations are considered. Some solutions to the problem are illustrated using incomplete data on failure times of an aircraft component. 相似文献
126.
Alan R. Washburn 《海军后勤学研究》1974,21(4):705-713
This paper includes two simple analytic formulas for kill probability that are applicable in circumstances where shots should be fired in a pattern. The two formulas bracket the maximum kill probability achievable with an optimal pattern. The upper bound corresponds to an optimal nonfeasible pattern, and the lower bound to a nonoptimal feasible pattern. 相似文献
127.
Robert R. Trippi 《海军后勤学研究》1974,21(2):327-332
A framework is developed for analyzing the likelihood of acceptance of an investment project proposal when objectives are uncertain. The foundation is a utility model of top management's choice process, modified if need be through a Bayesian approach which takes into account any apparent inconsistency in the history of past proposal acceptances and rejections. 相似文献
128.
In this paper a very versatile game model is developed for use in the long range planning of our strategic force posture. This highly aggregate model yields optimal force mixes for the triad (land- and sea-based missile systems and bombers) under a variety of constraints. The model described here is a survivability model; however, it is shown how the model can still be used as a measure of overall system effectiveness. Constraints imposed on the problem include both SALT and budget limitations. 相似文献
129.
The literature on maintenance models is surveyed. The focus is on work appearing since the 1965 survey, “Maintenance Policies for Stochastically Failing Equipment: A Survey” by John McCall and the 1965 book, The Mathematical Theory of Reliability, by Richard Barlow and Frank Proschan. The survey includes models which involve an optimal decision to procure, inspect, and repair and/or replace a unit subject to deterioration in service. 相似文献
130.
An inventory model in which future demand is affected by stockouts has been considered recently by B. L. Schwartz. Some generalizations of Schwartz's model are presented in this paper and properties of the optimal policies are determined. In the case of deterministic demand, a set-up cost is included and a mixture of backlogged and nonbacklogged orders is allowed during stockout. It is proved that the optimal policy entails either no stockout or continual stockout, depending on the values of three parameters. For stochastic demand, the effect of stockouts on demand density is postulated, the resulting optimal inventory policy is discussed, and an example involving an exponential density function is then analyzed in detail. 相似文献