A note on the limitations of goal programming as observed in resource allocation for marine environmental protection

After first formulating the problem of the Marine Environmental Protection program of the Coast Guard as a multiple-objective linear program, we investigate the applicability and limitations of goal programming. We point out how the preemptive goal-programming approach is incompatible with utility preferences. Then we observe the tendency of optimal solutions for standard linear goal programs to occur at extreme points. We also note problems of more general approaches, such as dealing with additively separable approximations to preferences.     

A decomposable transshipment algorithm for a multiperiod transportation problem

A dynamic version of the transportation (Hitchcock) problem occurs when there are demands at each of n sinks for T periods which can be fulfilled by shipments from m sources. A requirement in period t₂ can be satisfied by a shipment in the same period (a linear shipping cost is incurred) or by a shipment in period t₁ < t₂ (in addition to the linear shipping cost a linear inventory cost is incurred for every period in which the commodity is stored). A well known method for solving this problem is to transform it into an equivalent single period transportation problem with mT sources and nT sinks. Our approach treats the model as a transshipment problem consisting of T, m source — n sink transportation problems linked together by inventory variables. Storage requirements are proportional to T² for the single period equivalent transportation algorithm, proportional to T, for our algorithm without decomposition, and independent of T for our algorithm with decomposition. This storage saving feature enables much larger problems to be solved than were previously possible. Futhermore, we can easily incorporate upper bounds on inventories. This is not possible in the single period transportation equivalent.     

A simulated port facility in a theatre of operations

A hypothetical port facility in a theatre of operations is modeled and coded in a special purpose simulation language, for the purpose of conducting simulation experiments on a digital computer. The experiments are conducted to investigate the resource requirements necessary for the reception, discharge, and clearance of supplies at the port. Queue lengths, waiting times, facility utilizations, temporary storage levels, and ship turn-around times are analyzed as functions of transportation and cargo handling resources, using response surface methodology. The resulting response surfaces are revealing in regard to the sensitivity of port operations to transportation resource levels and the characteristics of the port facility's load factor. Two specific conclusions of significant value are derived. First, the simulation experiments clearly show that the standard procedures for determining discharge and clearance capacities take insufficient account of the effects of variability. Second, the response surfaces for ship turn-around times and temporary storage levels indicate that an extremely steep gradient exists as a function of troop levels.     

Minimizing reductions in readiness caused by time-phased decreases in aircraft overhaul and repair activities

The Navy is often required to conduct personnel planning studies, A recent study on the assessment of effects of personnel reductions at the various aircraft Overhaul and Repair Activities (O & Rs) of the Bureau of Naval Weapons was carried out by one of the writers of the present paper. The methodology was systematic but relied on informal, judgmental decision procedures rather than on formal models incorporating optimization. Later study of the problem resulted in the approach described herein. The paper addresses this question: How can a personnel reduction in the Navy's aircraft O & Rs be distributed among activities with minimum reduction in readiness? A two-stage procedure involving linear programming models is developed. Solutions involve either extensions of aircraft overhaul cycles or a combination of such extensions with reductions in aircraft inventories.     

One-person games of economic survival

This paper discusses the one-person economic survival game model with a discrete probability distribution for the contribution to surplus variable. The general game model and strategies in these games are examined, and necessary conditions which an undominated, stationary strategy must satisfy are obtained. For a special class of these games a mathematical formulation of the value of the game is given, and examples and theorems which relate to undominated strategies in this class are presented. This paper, in some sense, is a sequel to a portion of a paper by Shubik and Thompson [7] which appeared in this journal.     

The optimal burn-in testing of repairable equipment

The subject of this paper is the utilization of the “infant mortality” or decreasing failure rate effect to improve the reliability of repairable devices. Decreasing failure rate implies the possibility that devices which exhibit it can be improved by “burn-in testing” of each unit. Such a test serves to accumulate operating time while shielded from the full costs and consequences of failure. A general formulation of the burn-in test decision for repairable devices is presented and some special cases are solved. A class of models, indexed by the degree of partial replacement present in the repair process, is considered and numerical results for the optimal policy are given for several members of that class. A comparison of those results reveals the profitability of testing increases with the complexity of the repairable device.     

Adaptive competitive decision in repeated play of a matrix game with uncertain entries

This study is concerned with a game model involving repeated play of a matrix game with unknown entries; it is a two-person, zero-sum, infinite game of perfect recall. The entries of the matrix ((pij)) are selected according to a joint probability distribution known by both players and this unknown matrix is played repeatedly. If the pure strategy pair (i, j) is employed on day k, k = 1, 2, …, the maximizing player receives a discounted income of β^{k - 1} X_ij, where β is a constant, 0 ≤ β ? 1, and X_ij assumes the value one with probability p_ij or the value zero with probability 1 - p_ij. After each trial, the players are informed of the triple (i, j, X_ij) and retain this knowledge. The payoff to the maximizing player is the expected total discounted income. It is shown that a solution exists, the value being characterized as the unique solution of a functional equation and optimal strategies consisting of locally optimal play in an auxiliary matrix determined by the past history. A definition of an ?-learning strategy pair is formulated and a theorem obtained exhibiting ?-optimal strategies which are ?-learning. The asymptotic behavior of the value is obtained as the discount tends to one.     

Probabilistic models of decreasing failure rate processes

The “infant mortality” effect observed in the statistical treatment of reliability consists of a decreasing with age of the conditional probability of equipment failure (failure rate). One widely applicable explanatory hypothesis is that of population heterogeneity. This is developed here as a basis for several specific models of decreasing failure rate processes. Since, in the case of repairable devices, decreasing failure rate is often observed after the occurrence of failure and repair, consideration is extended to include repair in an explicit way. This union of failure and repair models is a fruitful one in view of the interaction between the two processes and gives a complete picture of the life of the device in terms of a stochastic process, usually with non-independent interfailure times. Four models, of particular significance due to their plausibility, mathematical tractability, and frugality of parameterization, are presented.     

On the minimization of a certain convex function arising in applied decision theory

The author, in an expository paper [4], has presented an algorithm for choosing a non-negative vector