An operational analysis of system calibration

Mathematical models are proposed for studying the impact of miscalibration upon operational effectiveness. Methodology for assessing the system effectiveness and an approach for optimizing the effectiveness of a calibration program are examined. The theory application is discussed and the results of some specific and convenient models are presented.     

Due-date assignment and early/tardy scheduling on identical parallel machines

This article examines the problem of simultaneously assigning a common due date to a set of independent jobs and scheduling them on identical parallel machines in such a way that the costs associated with the due date and with the earliness or tardiness of the jobs are minimized. We establish that, for certain values of the due-date cost, an optimal schedule for this problem is also optimal for an early/tardy scheduling problem studied by Emmons. We discuss the solution properties for the two problems, and show that both problems are NP-hard even for two machines. We further show that these problems become strongly NP-hard if the number of machines is allowed to be arbitrary. We provide a dynamic programming solution for the problems, the complexity of which indicates that the problems can be solved in pseudopolynomial time as long as the number of machines remains fixed. Finally, we present the results of a limited computational study. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity

Cyberspace is a new domain of operation, with its own characteristics. Cyber weapons differ qualitatively from kinetic ones: They generate effects by non-kinetic means through information, technology, and networks. Their properties, opportunities, and constraints are comparable to the qualitative difference between conventional and nuclear weapons. New weapons and their target sets in a new domain raise a series of unresolved policy challenges at the domestic, bilateral, and international levels about deterrence, attribution, and response. They also introduce new risks: uncertainty about unintended consequences, expectations of efficacy, and uncertainty about both the target’s and the international community’s response. Cyber operations offer considerable benefits for states to achieve strategic objectives both covertly and overtly. However, without a strategic framework to contain and possibly deter their use, make state and non-state behavior more predictable in the absence of reciprocal norms, and limit their impact, an environment where states face persistent attacks that nonetheless fall below the threshold of armed conflict presents a policy dilemma that reinforces collective insecurity.     

Safety in international security: a view point from the practice of accident investigation

While security points to a deliberate harming of humans and/or the environment, safety refers to unintended damage. In this view point, I will analyse how the distinction between safety and security matters in the practice of accident investigation and I will argue that the division between the fields is problematic for the assessment of security-related safety risks. Drawing on the case of the our accident investigation into the downing of flight MH17 above Ukraine in 2014, I highlight key dilemmas the Dutch Safety Board dealt with.     

Scheduling with tool changes to minimize total completion time: A study of heuristics and their performance

The machine scheduling literature does not consider the issue of tool change. The parallel literature on tool management addresses this issue but assumes that the change is due only to part mix. In practice, however, a tool change is caused most frequently by tool wear. That is why we consider here the problem of scheduling a set of jobs on a single CNC machine where the cutting tool is subject to wear; our objective is to minimize the total completion time. We first describe the problem and discuss its peculiarities. After briefly reviewing available theoretical results, we then go on to provide a mixed 0–1 linear programming model for the exact solution of the problem; this is useful in solving problem instances with up to 20 jobs and has been used in our computational study. As our main contribution, we next propose a number of heuristic algorithms based on simple dispatch rules and generic search. We then discuss the results of a computational study where the performance of the various heuristics is tested; we note that the well‐known SPT rule remains good when the tool change time is small but deteriorates as this time increases and further that the proposed algorithms promise significant improvement over the SPT rule. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Waiting time distributions for transient bulk queues with general vehicle dispatching strategies

A numerical approach is presented for determining the waiting time distribution in a transient bulk-arrival, bulk-service queue. Vehicle departures from the queue are governed by a general dispatch strategy that includes holding with a variable release function and vehicle cancellations. The waiting time distribution of a customer (in a group) arriving at a given point in time is calculated by simulating the process in discrete time and determining at each step the probability the customer has left the system. The dispatch strategies require knowing the total length of the queue as well as the position a customer holds in the queue. An exact approach is compared to an accurate approximation which is 50 to 100 times faster. Comparisons are made with other approaches in the context of steady-state systems.     

On the exponentially weighted moving variance

MacGregor and Harris (J Quality Technol 25 (1993) 106–118) proposed the exponentially weighted mean squared deviation (EWMS) and the exponentially weighted moving variance (EWMV) charts as ways of monitoring process variability. These two charts are particularly useful for individual observations where no estimate of variability is available from replicates. However, the control charts derived by using the approximate distributions of the EWMS and EWMV statistics are difficult to interpret in terms of the average run length (ARL). Furthermore, both control charting schemes are biased procedures. In this article, we propose two new control charts by applying a normal approximation to the distributions of the logarithms of the weighted sum of chi squared random variables, which are respectively functions of the EWMS and EWMV statistics. These new control charts are easy to interpret in terms of the ARL. On the basis of the simulation studies, we demonstrate that the proposed charts are superior to the EWMS and EWMV charts and they both are nearly unbiased for the commonly used smoothing constants. We also compare the performance of the proposed charts with that of the change point (CP) CUSUM chart of Acosta‐Mejia (1995). The design of the proposed control charts is discussed. An example is also given to illustrate the applicability of the proposed control charts. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Arming China: Major powers’ arms transfers to the People’s Republic of China

The rise of China has been fuelled by a massive military modernisation programme relying, in large part, on the acquisition of foreign military equipment. The question of how the world’s major powers define their arms transfer policies towards China is therefore crucially important. This article makes two original contributions. First, drawing on neoclassical realism, it proposes an explanatory framework integrating international and domestic factors to explain variations in major powers’ arms transfers. Second, based on a large body of elite interviews and diplomatic cables, it offers the first comprehensive comparison of American, British, French and Russian arms transfer policies towards China since the end of the Cold War.     

Aggregating courier deliveries

We consider the problem of efficiently scheduling deliveries by an uncapacitated courier from a central location under online arrivals. We consider both adversary‐controlled and Poisson arrival processes. In the adversarial setting we provide a randomized (3βΔ/2δ ? 1) ‐competitive algorithm, where β is the approximation ratio of the traveling salesman problem, δ is the minimum distance between the central location and any customer, and Δ is the length of the optimal traveling salesman tour overall customer locations and the central location. We provide instances showing that this analysis is tight. We also prove a 1 + 0.271Δ/δ lower‐bound on the competitive ratio of any algorithm in this setting. In the Poisson setting, we relax our assumption of deterministic travel times by assuming that travel times are distributed with a mean equal to the excursion length. We prove that optimal policies in this setting follow a threshold structure and describe this structure. For the half‐line metric space we bound the performance of the randomized algorithm in the Poisson setting, and show through numerical experiments that the performance of the algorithm is often much better than this bound.     

Optimizing submarine berthing with a persistence incentive

Submarine berthing plans reserve mooring locations for inbound U.S. Navy nuclear submarines prior to their port entrance. Once in port, submarines may be shifted to different berthing locations to allow them to better receive services they require or to make way for other shifted vessels. However, submarine berth shifting is expensive, labor intensive, and potentially hazardous. This article presents an optimization model for submarine berth planning and demonstrates it with Naval Submarine Base, San Diego. After a berthing plan has been approved and published, changed requests for services, delays, and early arrival of inbound submarines are routine events, requiring frequent revisions. To encourage trust in the planning process, the effect on the solution of revisions in the input is kept small by incorporating a persistence incentive in the optimization model. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 301–318, 1997.