基于WER的指挥信息系统功能需求指标体系构建方法

合理确定系统的功能需求是建设指挥信息系统的重要前提,而科学构建功能需求指标体系是确定功能需求的重要内容。由于受经验、环境、能力多方面的影响,指挥信息系统功能需求的确定过程中常常包含着许多定性的、随机的和模糊的因素,影响到了指标体系的有效性和稳定性。提出的基于WER的指标体系构建方法,综合运用定性和定量方法,通过权重估计(Weight estimate)、效度判断(Effect estimate)和可靠性判断(Reliability coefficient estimate),较好地解决了指挥信息系统功能需求指标体系构建中全面性、代表性、有效性和稳定性的问题。     

Changing the paradigm: Simulation,now a method of first resort

Decades ago, simulation was famously characterized as a “method of last resort,” to which analysts should turn only “when all else fails.” In those intervening decades, the technologies supporting simulation—computing hardware, simulation‐modeling paradigms, simulation software, design‐and‐analysis methods—have all advanced dramatically. We offer an updated view that simulation is now a very appealing option for modeling and analysis. When applied properly, simulation can provide fully as much insight, with as much precision as desired, as can exact analytical methods that are based on more restrictive assumptions. The fundamental advantage of simulation is that it can tolerate far less restrictive modeling assumptions, leading to an underlying model that is more reflective of reality and thus more valid, leading to better decisions. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 293–303, 2015     

基于分岔理论的数字液压缸稳定性分析与设计

为将分岔理论应用于数字液压缸稳定性分析与设计,对系统非线性模型进行了等价变换和光滑处理,同时为克服刚性问题影响,基于量纲分析理论通过选择合适的基本量将模型无因次化,并采用预测-校正延拓法确保分岔求解的精度和效率。在各自可行区间内,对重要参数和不确定参数进行了单参数分岔分析,结果表明:数字液压缸的初始设计具有一定的稳定裕度和鲁棒性,系统受不确定参数的影响较小;运用分岔理论,能够有效揭示各参数对系统动态稳定性的影响,为系统参数设计提供指导。     

多弯头管道磁致伸缩导波无损检测技术

为了研究超声导波在弯管中的传播特性及检测可行性,使用磁致伸缩导波仪器及传感器对多弯头管道进行了检测实验,并对弯管中导波的传播速度、模态转换、能量衰减等现象进行了探讨。结果表明:当弯管弯曲程度较小时,弯管中导波传播速度与直管中近似;弯管中导波存在明显的模态转换现象;弯管中导波能量随着时间近似呈指数形式衰减,且衰减规律与激励频率存在密切联系。该研究结果可以为复杂结构弯曲管道的导波检测提供参考。     

地空导弹武器系统抗饱和攻击能力研究

通过确定地空导弹武器系统抗饱和攻击能力的重要效能指标,分析地空导弹武器系统服务每枚来袭目标的过程,建立了地空导弹武器系统服务模型。在此基础上,建立了一种基于MonteCarlo法的地空导弹武器系统抗饱和攻击能力模型,并对模型进行了仿真分析。结果表明,该模型可真实地反映目标流强度对地空导弹武器系统服务目标数、杀伤目标数和消耗弹药数的影响,可为地空导弹武器系统的运用提供有益参考。     

基于全维PI观测器的混沌系统鲁棒故障检测设计

研究了在干扰存在情况下基于全维PI观测器的混沌系统鲁棒故障检测设计问题。基于一类Sylvester矩阵方程的参数化解,给出了干扰和残差信号解耦的充要条件,并建立了具有鲁棒故障检测功能的全维PI观测器设计的参数化方法。Lorenz混沌系统的数值算例及其计算结果表明：在干扰存在的情况下,基于全维PI观测器的混沌系统鲁棒故障检测设计方法简单有效。     

驱动线圈极性排列方式对多级同步感应线圈发射器加速性能的影响

为提高多级同步感应线圈发射器的加速性能,以5级同步感应线圈发射器为例,在定义驱动线圈极性相对排列方式的基础上,基于场-路耦合的时步有限元分析方法,研究了驱动线圈极性排列方式对其加速性能的影响,结果表明:驱动线圈同极性相对排列方式更有助于提高发射效率。通过分析内部磁场的分布规律,探讨了驱动线圈同极性相对排列方式改善加速性能的原因,最后通过比较电枢内的感应电流密度的方法验证了分析的正确性。     

Book Reviews

The purpose of this article is to analyse British strategic nuclear targeting between 1974 and 1979, prior to the successful completion of the sophisticated modification to Polaris submarine-missile system codenamed Chevaline. It will use as its starting point the parameters for UK strategic nuclear targeting, and the foundation of the ‘Moscow Criterion’, prior to the deployment of Britain's Polaris submarines which began in 1968. It will then discuss the recommendation by the Chiefs of Staff to retarget Polaris in 1975/76 and the implications of that recommendation in terms of the British approach to strategic nuclear deterrence. The article will conclude with an assessment of these retargeting decisions on the decision to replace Polaris with the US Trident system in 1980.     

Do Distinct (National) Operational Styles of Conflict Resolution Exist?

This article contains a reply to a previously published paper on the use and abuse of the so-called Dutch approach to counterinsurgency. In addition to commenting on this paper, the article constitutes an argument to initiate more comparative studies in the field of military and strategic studies. Only comparative studies will help to better understand the effectiveness of military force in preventing, containing and solving violent conflicts.