Programming the procurement of airlift and sealift forces: A linear programming model for analysis of the least-cost mix of strategic deployment systems

A linear programming model for analyzing the strategic deployment mix of airlift and sealift forces and prepositioning to accomplish the composite requirements of a set of possible contingencies is described in this paper. It solves for the least-cost mix of deployment means capable of meeting any one of a spectrum of contingencies, or meeting simultaneous contingencies. The model was developed by RAC as part of the U.S. Army's study program and has been used in analyses of deployment systems conducted in support of the U.S. Army, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Results of analyses have influenced the preparation of long-range plans as well as the formulation of the FY67 Department of Defense budget. The paper gives the background and assumptions of the model, describes the model by means of a simple hypothetical example followed by a selected subset of a complete version, and discusses how the model is used.     

Bilateral phase-type distributions

In this article we define a class of distributions called bilateral phase type (BPH), and study its closure and computational properties. The class of BPH distributions is closed under convolution, negative convolution, and mixtures. The one-sided version of BPH, called generalized phase type (GPH), is also defined. The class of GPH distributions is strictly larger than the class of phase-type distributions introduced by Neuts, and is closed under convolution, negative convolution with nonnegativity condition, mixtures, and formation of coherent systems. We give computational schemes to compute the resulting distributions from the above operations and extend them to analyze queueing processes. In particular, we present efficient algorithms to compute the steady-state and transient waiting times in GPH/GPH/1 queues and a simple algorithm to compute the steady-state waiting time in M/GPH/1 queues.     

On failure modeling

A promising approach to failure modeling, in particular to developing failure-time distributions, is discussed. Under this approach, system state or wear and tear is modeled by an appropriately chosen random process—for example, a diffusion process—and the occurrences of fatal shocks are modeled by a Poisson process whose rate function is state dependent. The system is said to fail when either wear and tear accumulates beyond an acceptable or safe level or a fatal shock occurs. This approach has significant merit. First, it provides revealing new insights into most of the famous and frequently used lifetime distributions in reliability theory. Moreover, it suggests intuitively appealing ways for enhancing those standard models. Indeed, this approach provides a means of representing the underlying dynamics inherent in failure processes. Reasonable postulates for the dynamics of failure should lend credence to the prediction and estimation of reliability, maintainability, and availability. In other words, accuracy of representation could lead to better, more reliable prediction of failure.     

Decision costs in the intelligence cycle

John Terraine, The Smoke and the Fire: Myths and Anti‐Myths of War 1861–1945. London: Sidgwick &; Jackson, 1980. Pp. 240; £8.95.

Stephen Roskill, Admiral of the Fleet: Earl Beatty. London: Collins,1980. Pp. 430; £12.95.

Peter and Leni Gillman, ’Collar the Lot’. How Britain Interned and Expelled its Wartime Refugees. London: Quartet Books, 1980. Pp. 314; £8.95.

Frederic A. Bergerson, The Army Gels An Air Force: Tactics of Insurgent Bureaucratic Politics. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. Pp. xiii + 216; £8.50.

Christoph Bertram (ed), Prospects of Soviet Power in the 1980s. London: Macmillan, and IISS, 1980. Pp. 126; £15.

James M. Roherty (ed.), Defense Policy Formulation: Towards Comparative Analysis. Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 1980. Pp. 315; $14.95.

Franklyn Griffiths and John C. Dolanyi, The Dangers of Nuclear War. Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1979. $15.00.

Kenneth Mackenzie, Turkey under the Generals. London: Institute for the Study of Conflict, Conflict Studies. Number 126, January 1981. Pp. 31.     

De-Constructing the French Wars: Napoleon as Anti-Strategist

The Emperor Napoleon I is regarded as one of the greatest generals of all time and, as such, he has attracted an immense bibliography. In spite of this, there have been few studies of him as a strategist: instead, it is simply assumed that it was enough for the Emperor to have conducted an operation for it to have had a logical strategic goal. In this article, however, Napoleon is shown to have been primarily an opportunist, who was frequently guided by the needs of the moment and swayed from his course by circumstance, while it is further suggested that, even considered on their own merits, many of his decisions were faulty in the extreme.