大学生思想政治教育中的“沉默螺旋”现象

"沉默的螺旋"理论是20世纪70年代德国社会学家诺尔诺依曼基于历史和传播的角度提出的关于舆论形成的理论假设,是现今学界研究受众反应的经典理论之一。本文就沉默螺旋理论在当代大学生思政传播中的存在性进行了论证,并分析了其对大学生思想政治教育可能产生的影响,结合实际,探讨了降低其负面影响的对策。     

Impact of reseller's and sales agent's forecasting accuracy in a multilayer supply chain

We consider a three‐layer supply chain with a manufacturer, a reseller, and a sales agent. The demand is stochastically determined by the random market condition and the sales agent's private effort level. Although the manufacturer is uninformed about the market condition, the reseller and the sales agent conduct demand forecasting and generate private demand signals. Under this framework with two levels of adverse selection intertwined with moral hazard, we study the impact of the reseller's and the sales agent's forecasting accuracy on the profitability of each member. We show that the manufacturer's profitability is convex on the reseller's forecasting accuracy. From the manufacturer's perspective, typically improving the reseller's accuracy is detrimental when the accuracy is low but is beneficial when it is high. We identify the concrete interrelation among the manufacturer‐optimal reseller's accuracy, the volatility of the market condition, and the sales agent's accuracy. Finally, the manufacturer's interest may be aligned with the reseller's when only the reseller can choose her accuracy; this alignment is never possible when both downstream players have the discretion to choose their accuracy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 207–222, 2014     

Return policy: Hassle‐free or your money‐back guarantee?

This article compares the profitability of two pervasively adopted return policies—money‐back guarantee and hassle‐free policies. In our model, a seller sells to consumers with heterogeneous valuations and hassle costs. Products are subject to quality risk, and product misfit can only be observed post‐purchase. While the hassle‐free policy is cost advantageous from the seller's viewpoint, a money‐back guarantee allows the seller to fine‐tune the consumer hassle on returning the product. Thus, when the two return policies lead to the same consumer behaviors, the hassle‐free policy dominates. Conversely, a money‐back guarantee can be more profitable even if on average, high‐valuation consumers experience a lower hassle cost than the low‐valuation ones. The optimal hassle cost can be higher when product quality gets improved; thus, it is not necessarily a perfect proxy or signal of the seller's quality. We further allow the seller to adopt a mixture of these policies, and identify the concrete operating regimes within which these return policies are optimal among more flexible policies. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 403–417, 2014     

Strategic outsourcing under technology spillovers

We study a supply chain in which an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) and a contract manufacturer (CM) compete in the finished goods market. The OEM can decide whether to outsource the intermediate good, a critical component for producing the finished good, from the CM or make in‐house production. Technology transition improves the CM's production efficiency, and it can take two different forms: a direct technology transfer from the OEM to the CM or technology spillovers through outsourcing from the OEM to the CM. We document the possibility of strategic outsourcing, that is, the CM supplies the intermediate good to the OEM when she is less efficient than the OEM's in‐house production. We find that technology spillovers can strengthen the incentive for strategic outsourcing. Furthermore, compared with direct technology transfers, outsourcing coupled with technology spillovers may generate more technology transition. Outsourcing is a particularly appropriate channel for implicit collusion when the OEM is not very efficient with the production of the intermediate good. Our results suggest that ex post competition on the finished goods can create room for ex ante collaboration and provide some implications on the OEM's outsourcing strategies when facing a competitive CM.© 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 501–514, 2014     

应用改进遗传算法优化天基光学监视平台轨道

针对地球遮挡、地影、太阳光干扰、月光干扰、空间目标相对观测平台的角速度等约束对空间目标可见性的影响问题,基于已编目空间目标双行轨道根数,研究以太阳同步晨昏圆轨道作为观测平台轨道,采用改进多变异位自适应遗传算法对单星观测平台轨道倾角进行优化设计。仿真结果表明,改进的多变异位自适应遗传算法有效地解决了多变异位自适应遗传算法不能保证收敛到所有种群中最优个体的问题,且随机抽取10%左右的目标样本可以达到与采用所有目标相当的性能,计算效率提高约1个量级。     

随机滤波模型在变速箱剩余寿命预测中的应用研究

摘要：基于变速箱加速寿命实验的振动信号,提取信号的多种特征参量．通过分析各特征参量的敏感性和稳定性,选择幅域裕度指标、峰值指标、波形指标和RMS（RootMeanSquare）作为特征参量,建立一种基于随机滤波的变速箱剩余寿命预测模型,给出剩余寿命后验概率密度的递推公式,设计了极大似然估计方法求解模型参数,并经实例验证模型的有效性和实用性．     

糕点状纳米金/聚3-甲苯噻吩复合物的制备及电催化性能

为了提高非酶传感器对葡萄糖的催化性能,制备了糕点状纳米金/聚3甲基噻吩复合物并用于电极的表面修饰。反应物浓度一定,纳米金经聚3甲苯噻吩诱导,自组装成为糕点状纳米金/聚3甲苯噻吩复合物。将纳米复合物滴涂在玻碳电极表面,制得纳米金/聚3甲苯噻吩复合物修饰电极。用循环伏安法研究修饰电极对葡萄糖的电催化作用。结果表明:在0.1 mol/L NaOH溶液中,葡萄糖在修饰电极上出现明显的氧化信号,修饰电极表现出良好的电催化性能。采用方波伏安法测定葡萄糖,峰电流与葡萄糖溶液的浓度在[0.50,4.32]mmol/L呈线性关系。     

现代花园洋房设计方法

花园洋房是具有悠久历史的住宅产品,现代花园洋房日益受到喜爱。为适应现代居住舒适、经济、安全的要求,寻求更加适合现代社会居住的花园洋房设计方法,基于花园洋房发展趋势与设计思想分析,结合具体设计方案,着重探讨套型叠加、空间过渡、下沉空间和洋房电梯等设计方法,从而为现代花园洋房设计方法的优化提供借鉴。     

基于HNC的命题逻辑推理方法

针对面向自然语言推理中计算机难以准确提取命题并进行符号化的难题,运用HNC(Hieratical Network of Concepts)理论中的语言逻辑概念与句类分析技术,从概念的角度出发,对自然语言描述的推理问题进行理解处理,使计算机能自动提取出推理条件中蕴涵的命题,然后将命题进行公式化处理,最后得到用自然语言描述的结论命题.试验结果表明:该方法能准确理解自然语言中的语义逻辑关系,完成命题逻辑推理.     

多预警机雷达信息融合的多普勒盲区目标检测

预警机雷达采用脉冲多普勒体制,不可避免地存在多普勒盲区。在对空工作模式下,多普勒盲区会导致目标频繁暂消和重复起批。在深入分析预警机雷达多普勒盲区目标的检测问题的基础上,构建了基于多站信息融合的分布式恒虚警率目标检测器。通过理论推导确定了融合规则,给出了局部雷达全空时处理条件下的目标检测广义似然比和虚警门限。仿真结果表明,该方法能够显著提高对落入多普勒盲区内的目标点迹的检测概率,同时改善了目标航迹质量,具有一定的实际意义和应用价值。