The Management of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan, the fastest growing nuclear weapon state in the world, has established over the last decade a nuclear management system it holds to be “foolproof.” Despite the explosion of radical groups challenging the writ of the state, it dismisses concerns by critics that its nuclear weapons are not safe and secure as “preposterous” and an attempt to “malign” the state. This article examines Pakistan's nuclear management system in four functional areas: command-and-control, physical security, nuclear surety, and doctrine. It describes what is publicly known in each area, identifies areas of omission and inadequacy in each one, and examines several premises of the nuclear program the author considers to be unfounded. Comparing these deficiencies in Pakistan's nuclear management system to the current problems plaguing the US nuclear management system, the author concludes that complacency and unfounded confidence in the efficacy of such programs, if not addressed and corrected, could lead to a future nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.     

Securing a border under asymmetric information

We study a stochastic interdiction model of Morton et al. IIE Transactions, 39 (2007):3–14 that locates radiation sensors at border crossings to detect and prevent the smuggling of nuclear material. In this model, an interdictor places sensors at customs checkpoints to minimize a potential smuggler's maximum probability of crossing a border undetected. We focus on a model variant in which the interdictor has different, and likely more accurate, perceptions of the system's parameters than the smuggler does. We introduce a model that is tighter and uses fewer constraints than that of Morton et al. We also develop a class of valid inequalities along with a corresponding separation procedure that can be used within a cutting‐plane approach to reduce computational effort. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 91–100, 2014     

Book reviews

Export or Die: Britain's Defence Trade with Iran and Iraq. by Davina Miller, London: Cassell, 1996, ISBN 0-304-33852-4 (hbk), £40.00, 04-33853-2 (pbk), £11.99.

The Storm Passed By: Ireland and the Battle of the Atlantic, 1940-1941. by Trevor Allen, Dublin: Irish Academic Press, 1996, ISBN 0-7165-2616-6, (hbk) £17.50.

Arms Control Toward the 21st Century. by Jeffrey A. Larsen and Greqory J. Rattray (eds). Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1996.

Asia-Pacific Security, Less Uncertainty, New Opportunities. Edited by Gary Klintworth. Melbourne: Addison Wesley Longman, 1996, ISBN 0-582-80321-7, £24.99.

Masters of War, Military Dissent and Politics in the Vietnam Era. by Robert Buzzanco, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, ISBN 0-521-48046-9 (hbk), £29.95

Controlling the Arms Trade: the West Versus the Rest. By Paul Cornish, London: Bowerdean Publishing Co., 1996, ISBN 0-906097-44-4 (pbk), £9.99.

Secret Agencies: US Intelligence in a Hostile World. by Loch K. Johnson, London: Yale University Press, 1997, ISBN 0-300-06611-2 (hbk), £22.50.     

Exact algorithms and bounds for the dynamic assignment interdiction problem

We study a multi‐stage dynamic assignment interdiction (DAI) game in which two agents, a user and an attacker, compete in the underlying bipartite assignment graph. The user wishes to assign a set of tasks at the minimum cost, and the attacker seeks to interdict a subset of arcs to maximize the user's objective. The user assigns exactly one task per stage, and the assignment costs and interdiction impacts vary across stages. Before any stage commences in the game, the attacker can interdict arcs subject to a cardinality constraint. An interdicted arc can still be used by the user, but at an increased assignment cost. The goal is to find an optimal sequence of assignments, coupled with the attacker's optimal interdiction strategy. We prove that this problem is strongly NP‐hard, even when the attacker can interdict only one arc. We propose an exact exponential‐state dynamic‐programming algorithm for this problem as well as lower and upper bounds on the optimal objective function value. Our bounds are based on classical interdiction and robust optimization models, and on variations of the DAI game. We examine the efficiency of our algorithms and the quality of our bounds on a set of randomly generated instances. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 373–387, 2017     

Equipment replacement under technological change

For infinite-horizon replacement economy problems it is common practice to truncate the problem at some finite horizon. We develop bounds on the error due to such a truncation. These bounds differ from previous results in that they include both revenues and costs. Bounds are illustrated through a numerical example from a real case in vehicle replacement. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On excess-, current-, and total-life distributions of phase-type renewal processes

Consider a renewal process whose interrenewal-time distribution is phase type with representation (α, T). We show that the (time-dependent) excess-life distribution is phase type with representation (α′, T), where α′ is an appropriately modified initial probability vector. Using this result, we derive the (time-dependent) distributions for the current life and the total life of the phase-type renewal process. They in turn enable us to obtain the equilibrium distributions for the three random variables. These results simplify the computation of the respective distribution functions and consequently enhance the potential use of renewal theory in stochastic modeling—particularly in inventory, queueing, and reliability applications. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A set-processing algorithm for scheduling staff on 4-day or 3-day work weeks

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for scheduling a single-category work force on 4-day or 3-day work weeks. Employees work 4 or 3 days each week, have A out of every B weekends off, and work no more than 5 consecutive days in a work stretch on 4-day work weeks and no more than 4 days in a work stretch on 3-day work weeks. Such conditions often prevail in 7-day-a-week organizations such as hospitals, manufacturing plants, and retail stores. We determine the minimum number of workers required to satisfy the scheduling constraints under any pattern of daily requirements. Then we present the algorithm for assigning days off for each worker, thereby determining the work schedules. We show that the algorithm, by construction, will necessarily satisfy the scheduling constraints. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 839–853, 1998     

FDs and Military Reform

Abstract

Ron Smith looks at procurement procedures within a European context, taking account of the problems currently facing defence industries and aduocates the institution of a European Defence Union, to be closely monitored by a joint finance Ministry to prevent overspending and monopoly.     

Northern Ireland and minimum force: the refutation of a concept?

The debate over whether there exists a British counter-insurgency tradition of minimum force is one that has been thoroughly discussed. Is there anything left to say? This study suggests there is further insight to be attained if one explicitly evaluates the concept of minimum force in relation to the conduct of the security forces in the years of the Northern Ireland conflict. Through an examination of three key periods in the conflict, it will be shown that while there was invariably an awareness of the need to act with restraint among senior officers at the strategic level, this was often difficult to apply at the tactical level in the heat of confrontation. The argument demonstrates that the British Army, and other instruments of the state, rarely acted in a manner that could be described as ‘minimal’. Instead, it was the broader liberal values of the British state that explains largely the degrees of restraint exhibited by the government and security forces.