System comparison procedures for automatic target recognition systems

Estimating the performance of an automatic target recognition (ATR) system in terms of its probability of successfully identifying a target involves extensive image collection and processing, which can be very time‐consuming and expensive. Therefore, we investigate the Wald sequential test for the difference in two proportions as a sample size‐reducing alternative to ranking and selection procedures and confidence intervals. An analysis of the test parameters leads to a practical methodology for implementing the Wald test for fairly comparing two systems, based on specific experimental goals. The test is also extended with the modified, sequentially rejective Bonferroni procedure for the multiple pairwise comparison of more than two systems. Two sampling schemes for different experimental goals are also discussed. The test methodology is applied to actual data to compare different configurations of a specific ATR system, with the results demonstrating that the modified Wald sequential procedure is a useful alternative to comparing proportions with confidence intervals, particularly when data are expensive. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 357–371, 1999     

Heuristic procedures for scheduling job families with setups and due dates

This paper examines heuristic solution procedures for scheduling jobs on a single machine to minimize the maximum lateness in the presence of setup times between different job families. It reviews the state of knowledge about the solution of this problem, which is known to be difficult to solve in general, and examines natural solution approaches derived from some of the underlying theory. The emphasis is on the design and computational evaluation of new heuristic procedures. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 978–991, 1999     

Maximizing project cash availability

Consider a project during the life cycle of which there are cash payouts and in‐flows. To better meet his financial commitments, the project owner would like to meet all deadlines without running out of cash. We show that the cash availability objective is similar to the total weighted flowtime used to measure work‐in‐progress performance in the scheduling and inventory control literatures. In this article we provide several specialized solution methods for the problem of minimizing total weighted flowtime in an arbitrary acyclic project network, subject to activity release times and due dates, where the activity weights may be positive or negative and represent cash in‐ and out‐flows. We describe the structure of an optimal solution and provide several efficient algorithms and their complexity based on mincost and maxflow formulations. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III

Ron Rosenbaum, How the End Begins: The Road to a Nuclear World War III. Simon & Schuster, 2011. 305 pages, $28.     

People's War? Self-Interest,Coercion and Ideology in Nepal's Maoist Insurgency

This paper analyses the micro-level processes by which ordinary rural Nepalis came to support the Maoist insurgency. Working through the implications of orthodox collective action theory, it finds that Maoist cadres are unlikely to have been strongly motivated by considerations of acquisitive self-interest. However, the participation of many may have been partly secured through various forms of coercion. Non-instrumental motivations for participation that are not accounted for by the rational choice premises that underpin conventional collective action theory are also identified. These are found to have been of particular significance in the violent and uncertain context of contemporary Nepal.     

Optimal selection with alternative information

This article examines the problem of optimally selecting from several unknown rewards when there are given alternative, costly sources of information. The optimal rule, indicating the information to be purchased and the reward to be selected, is specified as a function of the decision maker's prior probabilities regarding the value of each alternative. The rule is surprisingly complex, balancing prior beliefs, the “informativeness” of the relevant information system, and the cost of acquiring information.     

Book Reviews

The Mini-Nuke Conspiracy by Peter Hounam and Steve McQuillan, London: Faber and Faber, (1995)

The Amateur Strategist: Intuitive Deterrence Theories and the Politics of the Nuclear Arms Race By James DeNardo, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (1995), (pbk) ISBN 0-521-48446-4

After Empire: The Emerging Geopolitics of Central Asia By Jed C. Snyder (ed.), Washington DC: National Defense University Press, (1995), 235 pp., ISBN 0-16-051682-x.