Planning accelerated life tests for censored two‐parameter exponential distributions

We consider optimal test plans involving life distributions with failure‐free life, i.e., where there is an unknown threshold parameter below which no failure will occur. These distributions do not satisfy the regularity conditions and thus the usual approach of using the Fisher information matrix to obtain an optimal accelerated life testing (ALT) plan cannot be applied. In this paper, we assume that lifetime follows a two‐parameter exponential distribution and the stress‐life relationship is given by the inverse power law model. Near‐optimal test plans for constant‐stress ALT under both failure‐censoring and time‐censoring are obtained. We first obtain unbiased estimates for the parameters and give the approximate variance of these estimates for both failure‐censored and time‐censored data. Using these results, the variance for the approximate unbiased estimate of a percentile at a design stress is computed and then minimized to produce the near‐optimal plan. Finally, a numerical example is presented together with simulation results to study the accuracy of the approximate variance given by the proposed plan and show that it outperforms the equal‐allocation plan. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 169–186, 1999     

On gamma estimation via matrix kriging

In financial engineering, sensitivities of derivative prices (also known as the Greeks) are important quantities in risk management, and stochastic gradient estimation methods are used to estimate them given the market parameters. In practice, the surface (function) of the Greeks with respect to the underlying parameters is much more desired, because it can be used in real‐time risk management. In this paper, we consider derivatives with multiple underlying assets, and propose three stochastic kriging‐based methods, the element‐by‐element, the importance mapping, and the Cholesky decomposition, to fit the surface of the gamma matrix that can fulfill the time constraint and the precision requirement in real‐time risk management. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

考虑卫星位置误差的增广脉冲星方位误差估计算法

为了解决脉冲星方位误差估计中卫星位置误差对估计结果的影响,提出一种考虑卫星位置误差的增广脉冲星方位误差估计算法。为满足可观测性条件和保证尽可能低的矩阵运算维数,算法将卫星的位置误差标量作为增广状态。结合脉冲星方位误差估计基本原理,重新推得增广算法的状态及观测方程,并通过理论分析证明了算法的可观测性。最后仿真结果表明,当卫星位置误差导致传统算法的估计结果偏差较大时,该算法依然能够保证0. 01 mas的赤经和0. 3 mas的赤纬估计精度。不同方向的位置误差对方位误差估计精度影响较小。     

超声速燃烧火焰放热区结构CH-PLIF成像技术

超燃冲压发动机是吸气式高超声速飞行器的关键部件之一,超燃冲压发动机燃烧室内火焰结构的研究对揭示超声速燃烧的稳焰机理具有重要意义。利用平面激光诱导荧光（Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence,PLIF）技术测量了超声速燃烧直连式试验台燃烧过程中重要自由基CH的二维分布,实现了超声速燃烧火焰放热区结构的可视化。在开敞空间的低速射流火焰炉中使用甲烷/空气预混火焰对CH-PLIF技术进行了初步验证和系统优化,再利用CH-PLIF技术在凹腔稳焰的超燃直连台上实现了超声速燃烧火焰放热区结构的二维可视化,并与OH-PLIF和CH自发辐射测量结果进行了对比。实验结果表明,在开敞空间的低速射流预混火焰中,火焰放热区会发生扭曲、褶皱和分裂等现象,随着雷诺数的增大,火焰锋面褶皱程度更加显著;在凹腔稳焰的超声速燃烧中,火焰放热区高度褶皱和破碎,放热区结构的厚度为0.5～6.5 mm,同时也存在放热区的分裂与剥离等现象。CH-PLIF技术能够以较高的空间分辨率更准确地呈现凹腔超声速火焰放热区的结构,其在凹腔稳焰的超声速燃烧诊断中具有重要的应用价值。     

A game with distorted information

This article considers a two-person game in which the first player has access to certain information that is valuable but unknown to the second player. The first player can distort the information before it is passed on to the second player. The purpose in distorting the information is to render it as useless as possible to the second player. Based on the distorted information received, the second player then maximizes some given objective. In certain cases he may still be able to use the distorted information, but sometimes the information has been so badly distorted that it becomes completely useless to him. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

旋转永磁式机械天线的研究与实现

为实现低频电磁发信系统的小型化和低功耗,对基于旋转永磁体的机械天线,即利用永磁体机械旋转直接激励电磁波的新型低频电磁发信技术进行了理论研究与工程实践。提出基于钕铁硼永磁体和永磁同步电机的旋转永磁式机械天线技术方案及其信息加载方法,构建基于电-机械-电磁能量转换的系统模型,对其辐射效率和辐射功率进行初步分析,研究旋转永磁体在不同无限均匀介质中产生时变磁场的分布与衰减特性,研制了原理样机,并对其近区磁场和2FSK信号的加载特性进行了实验测试,验证了该方案的可行性和有效性。     

基于ERA和PT的舰艇编队多作战想定下效能评价

为了解决舰艇编队作战效能评价高度专业性、复杂性及要素间关联性等技术难题,提出了基于证据推理法(ERA)和前景理论(PT)的舰艇编队作战效能评价方法,分两步确定最优的评价指标体系及权重。对于要素间客观存在的关联性,从理论上证明了关联性越低,证据推理法的应用效果越佳,再以此为目标优化效能评价指标体系;运用前景理论构建了指标体系关联度最小、评价能力前景价值最大的非线性优化模型,同时确定指标最优权重,并给出求解方法。为了验证这一方法的有效性,将基于ERA和PT的舰艇编队作战效能评价方法应用于多想定的算例分析,结果表明,提出的方法能有效地解决舰艇编队作战效能的评价问题。     

基于超网络的空战场管制体系建模及评估

当前空战地位提升,战区指挥体制运行,空战场管制系统急需进行重构,以适应新体制、新情况.从管制系统构建的3条基本原则着手,构建了四级空战场管制体系,采用"节点-关系-信息流模体"的方法,对管制系统进行超网络建模.利用超网络理论,选择管制系统的灵活性、高效性和鲁棒性指标,对构建的战区管制系统进行评估.算例表明,该方法能够很...