一种评价伪装目标雷达发现概率的方法

为简化描述脉冲积累数、雷达参数及目标后向散射截面与发现概率、虚警概率之间的关系,结合伪装效果检测情况,提出了一种评价目标伪装前后雷达发现概率的方法,即构建评价函数对上述关系进行特征逼近研究.结果表明,该评价函数能反映伪装前后目标RCS与背景RCS比值的变化规律,且计算过程简单,可用于雷达检测评估.     

A produce‐to‐stock system with advance demand information and secondary customers

We consider a manufacturer (i.e., a capacitated supplier) that produces to stock and has two classes of customers. The primary customer places orders at regular intervals of time for a random quantity, while the secondary customers request a single item at random times. At a predetermined time the manufacturer receives advance demand information regarding the order size of the primary customer. If the manufacturer is not able to fill the primary customer's demand, there is a penalty. On the other hand, serving the secondary customers results in additional profit; however, the manufacturer can refuse to serve the secondary customers in order to reserve inventory for the primary customer. We characterize the manufacturer's optimal production and stock reservation policies that maximize the manufacturer's discounted profit and the average profit per unit time. We show that these policies are threshold‐type policies, and these thresholds are monotone with respect to the primary customer's order size. Using a numerical study we provide insights into how the value of information is affected by the relative demand size of the primary and secondary customers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Heuristic scheduling of resource-constrained projects with cash flows

Resource-constrained project scheduling with cash flows occurs in many settings, ranging from research and development to commercial and residential construction. Although efforts have been made to develop efficient optimal procedures to maximize the net present value of cash flows for resource-constrained projects, the inherent intractability of the problem has led to the development of a variety of heuristic methods to aid in the development of near-optimal schedules for large projects. This research focuses on the use of insights gained from the solution of a relaxed optimization model in developing heuristic procedures to schedule projects with multiple constrained resources. It is shown that a heuristic procedure with embedded priority rules that uses information from the revised solution of a relaxed optimization model increases project net present value. The heuristic procedure and nine different embedded priority rules are tested in a variety of project environments that account for different network structures, levels of resource constrainedness, and cash-flow parameters. Extensive testing with problems ranging in size from 21 to 1000 activities shows that the new heuristic procedures dominate heuristics using information from the critical path method (CPM), and in most cases outperform heuristics from previous research. The best performing heuristic rules classify activities into priority and secondary queues according to whether they lead to immediate progress payments, thus front loading the project schedule. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 365–381, 1997     

Nonpreemptive scheduling of independent tasks with prespecified processor allocations

In this article we study the problem of scheduling independent tasks, each of which requires the simultaneous availability of a set of prespecified processors, with the objective of minimizing the maximum completion time. We propose a graph-theoretical approach and identify a class of polynomial instances, corresponding to comparability graphs. We show that the scheduling problem is polynomially equivalent to the problem of extending a graph to a comparability graph whose maximum weighted clique has minimum weight. Using this formulation we show that in some cases it is possible to decompose the problem according to the canonical decomposition of the graph. Finally, a general solution procedure is given that includes a branch-and-bound algorithm for the solution of subproblems which can be neither decomposed nor solved in polynomial time. Some examples and computational results are presented. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

目标位置不确定性的图形描述

目标的观测和状态估计涉及目标的各种运动和属性数据,其中位置不确定性是最重要的性能指标.借鉴测绘学科中衡量点元位置不确定性的方法,分别用椭圆和椭球来表示二维目标和三维目标的位置误差散布的不确定性区域.从位置误差的协方差矩阵导出1-σ误差椭圆(球)参数,再由椭圆(球)的概率分布导出相应的95%圆(球)概率误差的半径.位置不确定性的图形描述为评价位置观测数据的质量提供了可视化的方法.     

Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

基于深度学习的战役初始态势认知方法

战役初始态势不仅影响着整个战役进程,而且对战役筹划的影响也极为显著。以深度学习为代表的人工智能技术突飞猛进,为我们利用人工智能技术实现自动识别复杂的战役初始态势、模拟战役指挥员的经验知识带来了契机,作者就此问题进行初步探索性研究。对战役初始态势的概念及其类型进行了介绍,探讨了基于深度学习的战役初始态势认知模型构建,对模型构建步骤、输入和输出的设计进行了探讨,对卷积神经网络的基本思想、结构、训练进行了介绍,在示例中介绍了样本数据的录入程序、卷积神经网络的具体结构与应用程序,验证了方法的可行性与有效性。所提出的战役初始态势认知方法可以在一定程度上获得指挥员对战役初始态势的经验知识。     

China’s Search for a ‘Strategic Air Force’

Once dismissed by many outside observers, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has undergone an impressive transformation over the past two decades, emerging as one of the world’s premier air forces. As it continues to modernize, it is focused on becoming a ‘strategic air force.’ PLAAF strategists suggest this means it should play a decisive role in protecting Chinese national interests, field modern capabilities commensurate with China’s standing as a major power, and enjoy the institutional status befitting its role as a ‘strategic service,’ an important consideration given the historical dominance of the ground force in China’s military.     

Northern Ireland and minimum force: the refutation of a concept?

The debate over whether there exists a British counter-insurgency tradition of minimum force is one that has been thoroughly discussed. Is there anything left to say? This study suggests there is further insight to be attained if one explicitly evaluates the concept of minimum force in relation to the conduct of the security forces in the years of the Northern Ireland conflict. Through an examination of three key periods in the conflict, it will be shown that while there was invariably an awareness of the need to act with restraint among senior officers at the strategic level, this was often difficult to apply at the tactical level in the heat of confrontation. The argument demonstrates that the British Army, and other instruments of the state, rarely acted in a manner that could be described as ‘minimal’. Instead, it was the broader liberal values of the British state that explains largely the degrees of restraint exhibited by the government and security forces.