FORECASTING SERIES CONTAINING OFFSETTING BREAKS: OLD SCHOOL AND NEW SCHOOL METHODS OF FORECASTING TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM

Transnational terrorism data are difficult to forecast because they contain an unknown number of structural breaks of unknown functional form. The rise of religious fundamentalism, the demise of the Soviet Union, and the rise of al Qaeda have changed the nature of transnational terrorism. ‘Old School’ forecasting methods simply smooth or difference the data. ‘New School’ methods use estimated break dates to control for regime shifts when forecasting. We compare the various forecasting methods using a Monte Carlo study with data containing different types of breaks. The study's results are used to forecast various types of transnational terrorist incidents.     

价值流分析在精益维修中的应用

与以往的维修理论相比,精益维修更加注重维修的“价值”,本文主要论述价值流分析技术的原理,通过美国空军运用价值流分析技术实现精益转化的过程分析了该技术在精益维修中的应用。     

装备型号研制项目风险管理体系框架研究

项目风险管理是装备型号研制工作的主要内容之一,并直接影响着项目的成败。本文在分析了装备型号研制项目风险特点的基础上,阐述了包括项目风险管理系统的外围支持体系、项目风险管理的组织结构形式和风险管理流程规划在内的风险管理体系框架的构建,对装备型号研制的风险管理工作有着极强的指导意义。     

利用标准促进节能减排工作的有效实施

节能减排,企业是主体,科技创新是支撑,而标准,则是坚实的保障。在标准的指导和指引下,可以促使企业采用清洁生产经济模式,优化产业结构,强化源头控制,推广先进技术,强化责任体系,加快资源节约型社会的建立。目前,兵器工业节能减排标准体系尚不完善,要整体规划,系统构思,开展符合国防科技工业特色的节能减排标准化工作,完善国防科技工业的节能减排标准体系。     

军工产品质量与可靠性信息管理运行机制的探讨

本文在总结我国多年开展质量与可靠性信息管理工作经验的基础上,根据信息管理的任务和应遵循的原则,对建立具有我国特色的军工产品质量与可靠性信息管理运行机制的问题进行了探讨。提出了为全面保证军工产品质量与可靠性信息系统能持续、有效地运行,所应建立的运行机制。     

二苯氯胂气溶胶对大白鼠亚慢性吸入染毒研究

研究使用动式吸入暴露系统,进行二苯氯胂（DA）的大白鼠吸入暴露90d的亚I匣性毒性试验。结果表明,DA对大白鼠亚慢性吸入暴露毒性的主要靶器官为喉、气管、肺、肝、肾等器官,判定DA对大白鼠吸入暴露90d的最小有害作用浓度为5．1×10^-9g／L,最大无害作用浓度为1．8×10^-9g／L。     

两个含磷、氮化合物的EI-MS分析

采用气相色谱一质谱联用技术对二异丙氨基甲基膦酸乙基酯和N,N-双（2-甲基膦酸乙基酯乙基）甲基胺2个合成样品进行了分析,比较深入地研究了2个化合物的质谱裂解规律,并推断了样品中相关杂质的结构。     

A produce‐to‐stock system with advance demand information and secondary customers

We consider a manufacturer (i.e., a capacitated supplier) that produces to stock and has two classes of customers. The primary customer places orders at regular intervals of time for a random quantity, while the secondary customers request a single item at random times. At a predetermined time the manufacturer receives advance demand information regarding the order size of the primary customer. If the manufacturer is not able to fill the primary customer's demand, there is a penalty. On the other hand, serving the secondary customers results in additional profit; however, the manufacturer can refuse to serve the secondary customers in order to reserve inventory for the primary customer. We characterize the manufacturer's optimal production and stock reservation policies that maximize the manufacturer's discounted profit and the average profit per unit time. We show that these policies are threshold‐type policies, and these thresholds are monotone with respect to the primary customer's order size. Using a numerical study we provide insights into how the value of information is affected by the relative demand size of the primary and secondary customers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

地面运动目标攻击命中概率模型及仿真

主要对地面运动目标的攻击命中概率问题进行了建模,包括有:暂停目标模型、移动目标模型和反应距离模型和最终推导出的攻击命中概率模型.在已知目标移动时间、暂停时间和移动速度以及观察间隔时间的概率分布的前提下,应用攻击命中概率等模型,可以计算出在某个攻击范围之内的命中概率.最后通过MATLAB仿真验证了模型.     

我创作《红色娘子军》的历史回顾

50年前,我在海南军区政治部工作,为纪念中国人民解放军建军30周年,我深入到琼崖革命老区调查研究和体验生活,创作了一篇题为《红色娘子军》的长篇报告文学,全文共2.5万余字,发表在1957年8月号的《解放军文艺》上,真实地反映了在土地革命战争时期,琼崖工农红军独立师娘子军连的英雄事迹.