An application of empirical bayes techniques to the simultaneous estimation of many probabilities

Consider the following situation: Each of N different combat units is presented with a number of requirements to satisfy, each requirement being classified into one of K mutually exclusive categories. For each unit and each category, an estimate of the probability of that unit satisfying any requirement in that category is desired. The problem can be generally stated as that of estimating N different K-dimensional vectors of probabilities based upon a corresponding set of K-dimensional vectors of sample proportions. An empirical Bayes model is formulated and applied to an example from the Marine Corps Combat Readiness Evaluation System (MCCRES). The EM algorithm provides a convenient method of estimating the prior parameters. The Bayes estimates are compared to the ordinary estimates, i.e., the sample proportions, by means of cross validation, and the Bayes estimates are shown to provide considerable improvement.     

When chaos reigns: responding to complex emergencies

This article discusses the impact of Complex Humanitarian Emergencies on the delivery of humanitarian aids. Complex emergencies were the results of long-term political and social disputes. Its impact brings about public health crises like epidemics, malnutrition, and even widespread desperation. In fact, there are four aspects of these crises which complicate public health programs: 1) emergencies are long and recurring; 2) access to the most vulnerable population is often restricted; 3) restructuring health systems in complex emergencies can be futile; and 4) complex emergencies often result in mass forced migration. What makes matters worse is the breakdown of health networks which collapse early in complex emergencies, leading to extensive losses of human health resources. Not only that, health facilities and transportation, infrastructure are often decimated in complex emergencies, and regional hospitals, district health posts, laboratories, and primary care outposts are similarly abandoned or destroyed. Moreover, because it is difficult to predict the course of these emergencies, ascertaining the optimal time to intervene and to invest in materials and facilities that could be lost to renewed fighting can be impossible. To solve this problem requires a coordinated effort. It should also focus on resources, early warning systems, preparedness measures, ongoing career training of relief workers, and prepositioning of relief supplies.     

Approximate decision rules for continuous review inventory systems

Constrained multi-item inventory models have long presented signifcant computational problems. This article presents a general algorithm to obtain simultaneous solutions for order quantities and safety stocks for each line item in an inventory, while satisfying constraints on average inventory investment and reordering workload. Computational experience is presented that demonstrates the algorithm's efficiency in handling large-scale applications. Decision rules for several customer service objectives are developed, with a discussion of the characteristics of the inventory systems in which each objective would be most appropriate. The decision rules are approximations, based on the assumptions commonly used in practice.     

Evaluation of costs of ordering policies in large machine repair problems

This article examines a version of the machine repair problem where failures may be irreparable. Since the number of machines in the system keeps decreasing, we impose a fixed state-dependent ordering policy of the type often encountered in inventory models. Although the system is Markovian, the number of states becomes very large. The emphasis of the article, therefore, is on deriving computationally tractable formulas for the steady-state probabilities, the long-run average cost per unit time, and the vector of expected discounted costs. When the state space is so large that exact computations may be infeasible, we propose approximations which are relatively quick and simple to compute and which yield very accurate results for the test problems examined.     

An efficient cyclic coordinate method for optimizing penalty functions

In this study, a simple and efficient cyclic coordinate search procedure is used to optimize penalty functions. Since the contours of the penalty function are very ill-behaved, an accurate line search is very difficult to achieve. Due to accumulated errors in line search, this makes “simple-minded” search directions just as good as more sophisticated directions, and actually better since they require a smaller effort per iteration. Of course this is only true if the search procedure is able to “ride” along steep ridges, and meanwhile move an appreciable distance towards the optimal, if at all possible. Computational results on the cyclic coordinate method seems to support this point of view, and shows robustness, reliability, and efficiency of the method.     

Adjacent vertices on transportation polytopes

To solve linear fixed charge problems with Murty's vertex ranking algorithm, one uses a simplex algorithm and a procedure to determine the vertices adjacent to a given vertex. In solving fixed charge transportation problems, the simplex algorithm simplifies to the stepping-stone algorithm. To find adjacent vertices on transportation polytopes, we present a procedure which is a simplification of a more general procedure for arbitrary polytopes.     

Denumerable state markovian sequential control processes: On randomizations of optimal policies

We consider a denumerable state Markovian sequential control process. It is well known that when we consider the expected total discounted income as a criterion, there exists a nonrandomized stationary policy that is optimal. It is also well known that when we consider the expected average income as a criterion, an optimal nonrandomized stationary policy exists when a certain system of equations has a solution. The problem considered here is: if there exist two optimal nonrandomized stationary policies, will a randomization of these two policies be optimal? It is shown that in the discounted case the answer is always yes, but in the average income case, the answer is yes only under certain additional conditions.     

Optimal and suboptimal procedures in group sequential sampling

This paper investigates the problem of choosing between two simple hypothesis, H₀ and H₁, in terms of independent, identically distributed random variables, when observations can be taken in groups. At any stage in the decision process it must be decided whether to stop and take action now or to continue, in which case the size of the next group of observations must be decided upon. The problem is to find an optimal procedure incorporating a stopping, group size (batch) and terminal action rule. It is proven, in general, that the optimal stopping and terminal action rule is of the sequential probability ratio type (SPRT). Fixed stopping rules of the SPRT type are studied and an iterative procedure of the policy improvement type, both with and without a value determination step, is developed. It is shown, for the general situation, that both the average risk and scheduling rule converge to the optima. Also, six suboptimal scheduling rules are considered with respect to the average risks they achieve. Numerical results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the procedures.     

A general treatment of upper unbounded and bounded hitchcock problems

This paper is designed to treat (a) the problem of the determination of the absolute minimum cost, with the associated assignments, when there is no limit, N, on the number of parcels available for shipment in a modified Hitchcock problem. This is accomplished with the use of a transformed cost matrix. C*, to which the so-called transportation paradox does not apply. The general Hitchcock solution using C* gives the cost T*, which is the absolute minimum cost of the original problem, as well as sets of assignments which are readily transformed to give the general assignments of the original problem. The sum of these latter assignments gives the value of N_u, the unbounded N for minimum cost. In addition, this paper is designed to show (b) how the method of reduced matrices may be used, (c) how a particular Hitchcock solution can be used to determine a general solution so that one solution using C* can provide the general answer, (d) how the results may be modified to apply to problems with fixed N, and hence (e) to determine the function of the decreasing T as N approaches N_u, and finally (f) to provide a treatment when the supplies at origin i and/or the demands at destination j, are bounded.     

On a sequential test procedure with delayed observations

This paper considers sequential test procedures to decision problems where there exists time delays in obtaining observations.