An application of servomechanisms to inventory

In recent years, some attention has been devoted to the application of techniques of control theory to inventory management. In particular, H. Vassian (1955) developed a model for a periodic review inventory system utilizing techniques of discrete variable servomechanisms to analyze the system in a cost-free structure. The resulting model is inherently deterministic, however, and emphasizes the control of inventory fluctuation about a safety level by selecting an appropriate order policy. Such an order policy is defined only up to an arbitrary method of forecasting customer demands. The present paper is a continuation of the model developed by Vassian in which exponential smoothing is used as a specific forecasting technique. Full recognition of the probabilistic nature of demand is taken into account and the requirement of minimizing expected inventory level is imposed. In addition, explicit formulas for the variance in inventory are derived as functions of the smoothing constant and the tradeoff between small variance and rapid system response is noted. Finally, in an attempt to remove the bias inherent in exponential smoothing, a modification of that technique is defined and discussed as an alternate forecasting method.     

Impact of an all volunteer force upon the navy in the 1972-1973 timeframe

This paper develops estimates of true volunteer levels for 1972 and 1973, based on experience gained through 1970 draft lottery data. The paper also formulates estimates of the qualitative characteristics of a 1972-1973 Navy volunteer force, and establishes a relationship between rate of volunteerism and military pay. Utilizing estimates generated in the paper, Navy military personnel budget requirements for FY '72 and '73 are presented.     

A technique which combines modified pattern search methods with composite designs and polynomial constraints to solve constrained optimization problems

This paper presents a method of selecting design parameters which optimizes a specific measure (aircraft design example: minimum weight, maximum mission effectiveness) and guarantees designated levels of response in specified areas (such as combal ceiling, acceleration time). The method employs direct search optimization applied to a nonlinear functional constrained by nonlinear surfaces. The composite design technique is combined with regression methods to determine adequate surface representations with a minimum of required data points. A sensitivity analysis is conducted at the optimum set of design parameters to test for uniqueness.     

A backward recursive technique for optimal sequential sampling plans

This paper presents a procedure akin to dynamic programming for designing optimal acceptance sampling plans for item-by-item inspection. Using a Bayesian procedure, a prior distribution is specified, and a suitable cost model is employed depicting the cost of sampling, accepting or rejecting the lot. An algorithm is supplied which is digital computer oriented.     

Control charts for exponentially distributed product life

This paper introduces a special control chart procedure for exponentially distributed product life. Statistical control of product life in manufacturing requires continuing life tests of manufactured product so as to detect changes in product life and take appropriate corrective action. These life testing experiments may become exceedingly time consuming and thus can be both impractical because of serious time delays in implementing corrective action on the process when indicated, and quite uneconomical. It is desirable to inquire into the character of life testing by means of a control chart procedure based on the real time to first failure within given samples. Measuring the real minimum life provides a considerable reduction in duration of the testing procedure and in the number of specimens destroyed, yielding a considerable economy over the Shewhart's X control chart.     

The search for an intelligent evader concealed in one of an arbitrary number of regions

This paper considers the search for an evader concealed in one of an arbitrary number of regions, each of which is characterized by its detection probability. We shall be concerned here with the double-sided problem in which the evader chooses this probability secretly, although he may not subsequently move; his aim is to maximize the expected time to detection, while the searcher attempts to minimize it. The situation where two regions are involved has been studied previously and reported on recently. This paper represents a continuation of this analysis. It is normally true that as the number of regions increases, optimal strategies for both searcher and evader are progressively more difficult to determine precisely. However it will be shown that, generally, satisfactory approximations to each are almost as easily derived as in the two region problem, and that the accuracy of such approximations is essentially independent of the number of regions. This means that so far as the evader is concerned, characteristics of the two-region problem may be used to assess the accuracy of such approximate strategies for problems of more than two regions.     

Multiple-attribute decision making with partial information: The expected-value criterion

We consider the multiple-attribute decision problem with finite action set and additive utility function. We suppose that the decision maker cannot specify nonnegative weights for the various attributes which would resolve the problem, but that he/she supplies ordinal information about these weights which can be translated into a set of linear constraints restricting their values. A bounded polytope W of feasible weight vectors is thus determined. Supposing that each element of W has the same chance of being the “appropriate one,” we compute the expected utility value of each action. The computation method uses a combination of numerical integration and Monte Carlo simulation and is equivalent to finding the center of mass of the bounded polytope W . Comparisons are made with another criterion already presented, the comparative hyper-volume criterion, and two small examples are presented.