Bounds and properties of the expected value of sample information for a project-selection problem

In this article we extend the work of Mehrez and Stulman [5] on the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) to the expected value of sample information (EVSI) for a class of economic problems dealing with the decision to reject or accept an investment project. It is shown that shifting the mean of the underlying a priori distribution of X, the project's monetary value from zero in either direction will decrease the associated EVSI of Y, the random sampled information. A theorem is then presented which gives an upper bound on the EVSI over all distributions of Y, as well as the structure of the posterior mean E[X|Y] for which this upper bound is achieved. Finally, the case where E[X|Y] is linear in Y is discussed and its performance compared with that of the optimal case.     

A new method to solve steady state queueing equations

There are a great number of queueing systems, including the M^X/M^Y/c, the Gl^X/M/c and the discrete Gl/G/1 queue in which the state probabilities are determined by repeated queue equations. This paper gives a simple, efficient and numerically stable algorithm to caiculate the state probabilities and measure of performance for such systems. The method avoids both complex arithmetric and matrix manipulations.     

A note on a computational model for a data/voice communication queueing system

Certain types of communication nodes can be viewed as multichannel queueing systems with two types of arrival streams. Data arrivals are characterized by high arrival and service rates and have the ability to queue if all service channels are busy. Voice arrivals have small arrival and service rates and do not have the ability to wait when the channels are full. Computational procedures are presented for obtaining the invariant probabilities associated with the queueing model.     

Reliability of a single unit with k spares in case of the hyper-exponential and the erlang failure distribution

In this paper formulas are derived for the reliability of a single unit to which identical spares in standby are allocated, with all of these units having a hyper-exponential or Erlang distributed lifetime. Two advantages are obtained by using these distributions. First, the general procedure for calculating the effect of redundancy is applicable, in contrast with most of the common life distributions, such as Weibull. Moreover, both distributions are suitable for matching to observed curves and practical data by varying the values of the parameters, covering together most of the cases of practical interest.     

Optimal strategies for problems of simultaneous attack against an area defense without impact-point prediction

An area to be defended consists of separated point targets. These targets are subject to an attack in which the offensive weapons are assumed to arrive simultaneously. The defense has area defenders, each of which is capable of intercepting any attacker. The defense has no impact-point prediction; that is, it has no knowledge of any attacker's destination prior to allocation of area interceptors. For a given attack, the defense wishes to allocate its interceptors to maximize the total expected survival value of the targets. For a given attack size, the offense seeks a strategy to minimize total expected surviving value against best defense. We determine an optimal defensive strategy directly and develop an algorithm to determine an optimal attack and the optimal value of the min-max problem. A dynamic programming technique is used to obtain integer solutions, and illustrative computational results are provided.     

Linear search with bounded resources

A point is placed at random on the real line according to some known distribution F, and a search is made for this point, beginning at some starting points s on the line, and moving along the line according to some function x(t). The objective of this article is to maximize the probability of finding the point while traveling at most d units. Characterizations of simple optimal searches are found for arbitrary distributions, for continuous distributions with continuous density everywhere (e.g., normal, Cauchy, triangular), and for continuous distributions with density which is continuous on its support (e.g., exponential, uniform). These optimal searches are also shown to be optimal for maximization of the expected number of points found if the points are placed on the line independently from a known distribution F.     

A model in which component failure rates depend on the working set

We consider a multicomponent system in which the failure rate of a given component at any time depends on the set of working components at that time. Sufficient conditions are presented under which such a system has a life distribution of specified type. The Laplace transform of the time until all components are down is derived. When repair is allowed, conditions under which the resulting process is time reversible are presented.     

The bottleneck transportation problem

The bottleneck transportation problem can be stated as follows: A set of supplies and a set of demands are specified such that the total supply is equal to the total demand. There is a transportation time associated between each supply point and each demand point. It is required to find a feasible distribution (of the supplies) which minimizes the maximum transportaton time associated between a supply point and a demand point such that the distribution between the two points is positive. In addition, one may wish to find from among all optimal solutions to the bottleneck transportation problem, a solution which minimizes the total distribution that requires the maximum time Two algorithms are given for solving the above problems. One of them is a primal approach in the sense that improving fcasible solutions are obtained at each iteration. The other is a “threshold” algorithm which is found to be far superior computationally.     

On the discrete-time queue length distribution under markov-dependent phases

The technique of probability generating functions has been applied to solve the steady state behavior of a discrete-time, single-channel, queueing problem wherein the arrivals to the queue at consecutive time-marks are statistically independent, but the service is accomplished in phases which are Markov-dependent. Special cases of importance have been discussed. In the end, mean number of phases, its special cases, the mean queue lengths, and the variances have been ascertained.     

Time-cost tradeoffs in uncertain empirical research projects

This paper explores the relationship between research project cost and expected time to completion under various scheduling strategies; it assumes that many potential technical approaches to the research problem can be identified; and that each approach has a low but finite subjective probability of success. It is shown that under a variety of assumptions, expected time to project completion can be reduced, but that as a result expected project cost rises at an increasing rate. Some cases in which this convex time-cost tradeoff relationship might not hold generally are identified. When the time-cost tradeoff function is convex, the desirability of concurrent as opposed to series scheduling of approaches depends crucially upon the depth of the stream of benefits expected to be realized upon successful project completion. The deeper the benefit stream is, the more desirable concurrent scheduling is.