The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt

Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region, showing considerable variation over the last 40?years. These characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the determinants of military spending. This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking into account important strategic and political factors. Both economic and strategic factors are found to play a role in determining military burden/spending, with clear positive effects of lagged military burden, suggesting some sort of institutional inertia, plus negative output and net exports effects. The strategic effect as a result of the impact of Israel’s military burden is mostly positive and significant, though its impact is reduced when the impact of important strategic events are taken into account. The military spending of Egypt’s allies Jordan and Syria generally seems to have had no effect on Egypt’s spending. These results are consistent over a range of econometric techniques.     

试验用弹的研究

分析20世纪80年代以来几次较大规模局部战争中,尤其是伊拉克战争中制导武器使用的特点,阐述在现役武器系统发射平台不变的情况下,为其开发设计制导弹丸的研制过程中,怎样合理的选用试验用弹,以达到生产出高效费比的制导武器。     

燃气轮机仿真软件构造方法综述

从方法论的角度综述了燃气轮机仿真软件的研究现状,分析了过程式方法和过程式模块化方法的不足,阐明采用面向对象方法的必要性,并对未来的发展方向作了初步探讨.     

On estimating survival for reliability models based on age-related stochastic comparisons

A new class of nonparametric reliability models is introduced and studied. A distribution is said to be better at age s than at age t (sBt) if the residual lifetime at age s is stochastically greater than or equal to the residual lifetime at age t. Applications to various forms of replacement policies, including the cannibalization of failed systems, are noted. For fixed s < t, the problem of estimating a survival curve assumed to belong to the sBt class is addressed using recursive methods. An sBt estimator is derived in closed form, and its uniform strong consistency at an optimal rate of convergence is demonstrated. A simulation study strongly supports the claim that the sBt estimator tends to outperform the empirical survivor function in small- and moderate-size samples. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A comparison of several estimates of availability

We compare several competing estimates of the availability of a system which alternates between two states, “up” and “down,” in accordance with an alternating renewal process. Both interval and point estimators are compared under several special but representative situations. The comparison reaffirms the validity and robustness of the log-logistic jackknifed estimates. However, when the point estimates are compared from the intrinsic criterion of probability of concentration, the uniformly minimum variance estimate obtained for the Markov model performs very well.     

Facility location and capacity acquisition: An integrated approach

The facility location and capacity acquisition decisions are intertwined, especially within the international context where capacity acquisition costs are location dependent. A review of the relevant literature however, reveals that the facility location and the capacity acquisition problems have been dealt with separately. Thus, an integrated approach for simultaneous optimization of these strategic decisions is presented. Analytical properties of the arising model are investigated and an algorithm for solving the problem is devised. Encouraging computational results are reported. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A Clash of Wills: Hizballah's Psychological Campaign Against Israel in South Lebanon

This article analyzes Hizballah's war against Israel in south Lebanon as a psychological contest where public opinion, perception, and persuasion were the real determinants of victory. Hizballah successfully mobilized popular support for its war by communicating nationalist and religious themes to different sectarian groups in Lebanon. At the same time, it used classic guerrilla warfare as a carefully calibrated psychological tool to erode the morale of Israeli forces, their Lebanese allies, and the Israeli public's support for the war. Hizballah's sophisticated media capability, particularly combat video footage aired on its satellite TV station and the Internet, played a critical role in amplifying the effects of its attrition campaign. By orchestrating information-age media and guerrilla tactics, this strategy has important implications for the future of irregular warfare.     

Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation

Demand forecasting performance is subject to the uncertainty underlying the time series an organization is dealing with. There are many approaches that may be used to reduce uncertainty and thus to improve forecasting performance. One intuitively appealing such approach is to aggregate demand in lower‐frequency “time buckets.” The approach under concern is termed to as temporal aggregation, and in this article, we investigate its impact on forecasting performance. We assume that the nonaggregated demand follows either a moving average process of order one or a first‐order autoregressive process and a single exponential smoothing (SES) procedure is used to forecast demand. These demand processes are often encountered in practice and SES is one of the standard estimators used in industry. Theoretical mean‐squared error expressions are derived for the aggregated and nonaggregated demand to contrast the relevant forecasting performances. The theoretical analysis is supported by an extensive numerical investigation and experimentation with an empirical dataset. The results indicate that performance improvements achieved through the aggregation approach are a function of the aggregation level, the smoothing constant, and the process parameters. Valuable insights are offered to practitioners and the article closes with an agenda for further research in this area. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 479–498, 2013     

Some aspects in estimating warranty and post‐warranty repair demands

When customers buy a product, they are often eligible for free repairs for a certain warranty period. In this article, we study some important aspects, which are often overlooked in the literature but are of interest to the manufacturer, in estimating both warranty and post‐warranty repair demands. We consider that the installed base of the product (i.e., the number of units of the product actually in use) varies with time due to both new sales and units being taken out of service. When estimating warranty and post‐warranty repair demands, we explicitly address the fact that customers may not always request repairs for failed units. For the case where the product failure time distribution is exponential, we derive the closed‐form expressions for both types of repair demands of a single unit and of the time‐varying installed base. The insights into some risk‐related quantities are also presented. Furthermore, the proposed model is extended by considering delayed warranty claims that are frequently seen in practice. Numerical examples illustrate that understanding both types of repair demands and the related decision variables is important for managing the obligatory and profitable repair services. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 499–511, 2013     

高速下的外压式空气轴颈轴承研究

本文基于有限元方法,针对不同的速度参数和离心率,采用一种直接的数字方法来计算多孔外压空气轴颈轴承的性能指标,并把模拟结果同参考资料上一种空气心轴轴颈轴承的计算进行了比较。