Optimal selection from a random sequence with observation errors

A form of sequential decision problem is introduced in which options are presented in sequence. with no recall of rejected options (as in the secretary problem), but in which the value of each option may only he inferred from experiments. Decisions have thus to be made concerning both the acceptance and rejection of each option and the degree of experimentation. General properties of the optimal policy are derived, and an algorithm is obtained for the solution in a special case. This special case suggests a heuristic rule for more general situations. the performance of which rule has been investigated by a Monte Carlo study.     

A differential equation model of search for randomly arriving and departing targets

In this paper we analyze optimal search strategies in an environment in which multiple, independent targets arrive and depart at random. The analysis revolves around a continuous time differential equation model which captures the time dependent nature of the search process. We explore the impact on optimal strategies of nonzero travel times between regions as well as differing target arrival rates. We derive simple closed form expressions for determining if only one region should be searched.     

Expedients for solving some specially structured mixed-integer programs

In this paper we consider dual angular and angular structured mixed integer programs which arise in some practical applications. For these problems we describe efficient methods for generating a desirable set of Benders' cuts with which one may initialize the partitioning scheme of Benders. Our research is motivated by the computational experience of McDaniel and Devine who have shown that the set of Benders' cuts which are binding at the optimum to the linear relaxation of the mixed integer program, play an important role in determining an optimal mixed integer solution. As incidental results in our development, we provide some useful remarks regarding Benders' and Dantzig-Wolfe's decomposition procedures. The computational experience reported seems to support the expedients recommended in this paper.     

A note on sojourn times in M/G/1 queues with instantaneous,bernoulli feedback

Queueing systems which include the possibility for a customer to return to the same server for additional service are called queueing systems with feedback. Such systems occur in computer networks for example. In these systems a chosen customer will wait in the queue, be serviced and then, with probability p, return to wait again, be serviced again and continue this process until, with probability (1 – p) = q, it departs the system never to return. The time of waiting plus service time, the nth time the customer goes through, we will call his nth sojourn time. The (random) sum of these sojourn times we will call the total sojourn time (abbreviated, sojourn time when there is no confusion which sojourn time we are talking about). In this paper we study the total sojourn time in a queueing system with feedback. We give the details for M/G/1 queues in which the decision to feedback or not is a Bernoulli process. While the details of the computations can be more difficult, the structure of the sojourn time process is unchanged for the M/G/1 queue with a more general decision process as will be shown. We assume the reader is familiar with Disney, McNickle and Simon [1].     

Bounds and elimination in generalized markov decisions

In discounted Markov decision processes bounds on the optimal value function can be computed and used to eliminate suboptimal actions. In this paper we extend these procedures to the generalized Markov decision process. In so doing we forfeit the contraction property and must base our analysis on other procedures. Duality theory and the Perron-Frobenius theorem are the main tools.     

Maximal nash subsets for bimatrix games

In this work maximal Nash subsets are studied in order to show that the set of equilibrium points of a bimatrix game is the finite union of all such subsets. In addition, the extreme points of maximal Nash subsets are characterized in terms of square submatrices of the payoff matrices and dimension relations are derived.     

A characterization of the value of zero-sum two-person games

For the family D, consisting of those zero-sum two-person games which have a value, the value-function on D is characterized by four properties called objectivity, monotony, symmetry and sufficiency.     

An empirical evaluation of further approximations to an approximate continuous review inventory model

This paper describes an empirical evaluation of several approximations to Hadley and Whitin's approximate continuous review inventory model with backorders. It is assumed that lead time demand is normally distributed and various exponential functions are used to approximate the upper tail of this distribution. These approximations offer two important advantages in computing reorder points and reorder quantities. One advantage is that normal tables are no longer required to obtain solutions, and a second advantage is that solutions may be obtained directly rather than iteratively. These approximations are evaluated on two distinct inventory systems. It is shown that an increase in average annual cost of less that 1% is expected as a result of using these approximations. The only exception to this statement is with inventory systems in which a high shortage cost is specified and ordering costs are unusually low.     

An early-accept modification to the test plans of military standard 781C

This paper is concerned with the statistical test plans contained in Military Standard 781C, “Reliability Design Qualification and Production Acceptance Tests: Exponential Distribution” and the selection and use of these plans. Modifications to the fixed-length test plans of MIL-STD-781C are presented which allow early-accept decisions to be made without sacrificing statistical validity. The proposed plans differ from the probability ratio sequential tests in the Standard in that rejection is permitted only after a fixed number of failures have been observed.     

A two-echelon inventory model with purchases,dispositions, shipments,returns and transshipments

This paper presents a one-period two-echelon inventory model with one warehouse in the first echelon and n warehouses in the second echelon. At the beginning of the period the stock levels at all facilities are adjusted by purchasing or disposing of items at the first echelon, returning or shipping items between the echelons and transshipping items within the second echelon. During the period, demands (which may be negative) are placed on all warehouses in the second echelon and an attempt is made to satisfy shortages either by an expedited shipment from the first echelon to the second echelon or an expedited transshipment within the second echelon. The decision problem is to choose an initial stock level at the first echelon (by a purchase or a disposition) and an initial allocation so as to minimize the initial stock movement costs during the period plus inventory carrying costs and system shortage costs at the end of the period. It is shown that the objective function takes on one of four forms, depending on the relative magnitudes of the various shipping costs. All four forms of the objective function are derived and proven to be convex. Several applications of this general model are considered. We also consider multi-period extensions of the general model and an important special case is solved explicitly.