An F approximation for two-parameter weibull and log-normal tolerance bounds based on possibly censored data

An approximation suggested in Mann, Schafer and Singpurwalla [18] for obtaining small-sample tolerance bounds based on possibly censored two-parameter Weibull and lognormal samples is investigated. The tolerance bounds obtained are those that effectively make most efficient use of sample data. Values based on the approximation are compared with some available exact values and shown to be in surprisingly good agreement, even in certain cases in which sample sizes are very small or censoring is extensive. Ranges over which error in the approximation is less than about 1 or 2 percent are determined. The investigation of the precision of the approximation extends results of Lawless [8], who considered large-sample maximum-likelihood estimates of parameters as the basis for approximate 95 percent Weibull tolerance bounds obtained by the general approach described in [18]. For Weibull (or extreme-value) data the approximation is particularly useful when sample sizes are moderately large (more than 25), but not large enough (well over 100 for severely censored data) for asymptotic normality of estimators to apply. For such cases simplified efficient linear estimates or maximum-likelihood estimates may be used to obtain the approximate tolerance bounds. For lognormal censored data, best linear unbiased estimates may be used, or any efficient unbiased estimators for which variances and covariances are known as functions of the square of the distribution variance.     

A note on a confidence interval for an interclass mean

An exact confidence interval for an interclass mean, that is, the mean of a composite sample made up several subsamples of unequal sizes n_i, is presented.     

Force-annihilation conditions for variable-coefficient lanchester-type equations of modern warfare

This paper develops a mathematical theory for predicting force annihilation from initial conditions without explicitly computing force-level trajectories for deterministic Lanchester-type “square-law” áttrition equations for combat between two homogeneous forces with temporal variations in fire effectivenesses (as expressed by the Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients). It introduces a canonical auxiliary parity-condition problem for the determination of a single parity-condition parameter (“the enemy force equivalent of a friendly force of unit strength”) and new exponential-like general Lanchester functions. Prediction of force annihilation within a fixed finite time would involve the use of tabulations of the quotient of two Lanchester functions. These force-annihilation results provide further information on the mathematical properties of hyperbolic-like general Lanchester functions: in particular, the parity-condition parameter is related to the range of the quotient of two such hyperbolic-like general Lanchester functions. Different parity-condition parameter results and different new exponential-like general Lanchester functions arise from different mathematical forms for the attrition-rate coefficients. This theory is applied to general power attrition-rate coefficients: exact force-annihilation results are obtained when the so-called offset parameter is equal to zero; while upper and lower bounds for the parity-condition parameter are obtained when the offset parameter is positive.     

A note on distribution-free tolerance limits

This note presents methods for solving for any one of the four parameters (such as sample size) involved in the construction of distribution-free tolerance limits in terms of the other three. These solutions are based on a normal approximation to the incomplete beta function. Numerical examples indicate that the approximations are very reasonable. Also considered are tolerance limits with a specified precision.     

Sequential tests for hypotheses concerning the product of poisson parameters with applications to problems in reliability and biometry

Sequential tests for the product of Poisson parameters based on the generalized incomplete modified Bessel (g.i.m.B.) distributions are given. Applications to reliability and biometry are indicated.     

A bayesian approach to evaluating military investments in product improvement and testing

Two issues of frequent importance in new product development are product improvement and reliability testing. A question often faced by the developer is: Should the product be distributed in its present state, or should it be improved further and/or tested before distribution? A more useful statement of the question might be: What levels of investment in further improvement and testing are economically permissible? Products for which this question is relevant may vary widely in type and intended use. This paper presents a model for determining these levels for one such product—an equipment modification procedure. The model presented makes use of present value analysis to compare cost streams and of Bayesian statistics to relate the costs to various outcomes under conditions of uncertainty. The model is applied to an actual military problem and a method is described for examining the sensitivity of the results to changes in the prior probabilities and discount rate.     

The cyclic separation scheduling problem

This paper deals with the problem of scheduling items (tasks, employees, equipment, etc.) over a finite time horizon so as to minimize total cost expenditures while maintaining a predefined separation between certain items. The problem is cyclic, because the same schedule will be repeated over several consecutive time periods of equal length. Thus, requirements are present to maintain the separation of items not only within the individual time periods considered, but also between items in adjoining periods. A special purpose branch-and-bound algorithm is developed to solve this scheduling problem by taking advantage of its cyclic nature. Computational results are given.     

Book reviews

Winning the Next War: Innovation and the Modern Military. By Stephen Peter Rosen. Cornell Studies in Security Affairs, Cornell University Press, New York (1991), ISBN 0-8014-2566-5. Price £40.00

Post-Military Society. By Martin Shaw. Polity Press, Cambridge (1991), ISBN 0-7456-01987 (hardback) £35.00,0-7456-01995 (paperback) £11.95

Big Boys' Rules—The Secret War Against the IRA. By Mark Urban. Faber and Faber, London (1992), ISBN 0-571-16112-X, £14.99