Nuclear opportunism: A theory of how states use nuclear weapons in international politics

How do states use nuclear weapons to achieve their goals in international politics? Nuclear weapons can influence state decisions about a range of strategic choices relating to military aggression, the scope of foreign policy objectives, and relations with allies. The article offers a theory to explain why emerging nuclear powers use nuclear weapons to facilitate different foreign policies: becoming more or less aggressive; providing additional support to allies or proxies, seeking independence from allies; or expanding the state’s goals in international politics. I argue that a state’s choices depend on the presence of severe territorial threats or an ongoing war, the presence of allies that provide for the state’s security, and whether the state is increasing in relative power. The conclusion discusses implications of the argument for our understanding of nuclear weapons and the history of proliferation, and nonproliferation policy today.     

The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies,Australian strategic culture,and the politics of path dependence

Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”     

Landmarks in defense literature

SOE in France: An Account of the Work of the Special Operations Executive in France 1940-1944. By M. R. D. FOOT. Her Majesty' Stationary Office, London, 550 pp., 1966. Second impression with amendments 1986.     

A note on the sensitivity of navy first term reenlistment to bonuses,unemployment and relative wages

Multiple regression analysis of first term reenlistment rates over the period 1968–1977 confirms previous findings that reenlistment is highly sensitive to unemployment at the time of reenlistment and shortly after enlistment, almost four years earlier. Bonuses, particularly lump sum bonuses, were also shown to be a significant determinant of reenlistment.     

Surrogate duality in a branch-and-bound procedure

Recent research has led to several surrogate multiplier search procedures for use in a primal branch-and-bound procedure. As single constrained integer programming problems, the surrogate subproblems are also solved via branch-and-bound. This paper develops the inner play between the surrogate subproblem and the primal branch-and-bound trees which can be exploited to produce a number of computational efficiencies. Most important is a restarting procedure which precludes the need to solve numerous surrogate subproblems at each node of a primal branch-and-bound tree. Empirical evidence suggests that this procedure greatly reduces total computation time.     

The First Carlist War (1833–40), insurgency,Ramón Cabrera,and expeditionary warfare

ABSTRACT

The period 1833 to 1840 witnessed a brutal civil war in Spain waged between insurgent Carlists and the government Cristinos. The Carlists managed to secure reliable territorial control only over one part of Spain (upland Navarra and rural parts of the neighbouring Basque provinces). Although pockets of armed Carlism flourished elsewhere in Spain, especially in Catalonia, Aragón and Galicia, these insurgents were ineffective at coordinating actions. The Carlist court in the Basque country tried to break its strategic blockade by launching a series of expeditions into Cristino-held territory in the hope of destabilising the Madrid regime and consolidating distant insurrections. This article explains how and why these expeditions scored tactical victories but strategic failures. In particular it argues that Carlist raiding strategy was a failure, for its use of violence against real and imagined enemies in marginal and Cristino areas of control alienated civilian support.