Dependence in target element detections induced by the environment

When modeling the detection of targets in a simulation of combat, the detection process is frequently represented as a series of independent detections of individual elements of the target. This assumption ignores the effect of a common but unknown field environment within which the detections take place. In this article, multivariate survival distributions are developed for target element detections which occur in an unknown dynamic environment. A proportional hazards representation is adopted, which uses a random variable multiplying the detection rate to account for the effect of the environment. Several special cases are examined which are useful for modeling target unit detections.     

An extensible modeling framework for dynamic reassignment and rerouting in cooperative airborne operations

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), increasingly vital to the success of military operations, operate in a complex and dynamic environment, sometimes in concert with manned aircraft. We present an extensible modeling framework for the solution to the dynamic resource management (DRM) problem, where airborne resources must be reassigned to time‐sensitive tasks in response to changes in battlespace conditions. The DRM problem is characterized by diverse tasks with time windows, heterogeneous resources with fuel‐ and payload‐capacity limitations, and multiple competing objectives. We propose an integer linear programing formulation for this problem, where mathematical feasibility is guaranteed. Although motivated by airborne military operations, the proposed general modeling framework is applicable to a wide array of settings, such as disaster relief operations. Additionally, land‐ or water‐based operations may be modeled within this framework, as well as any combination of manned and unmanned vehicles. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

The underlying causes of military outsourcing in the USA and UK: bridging the persistent gap between ends,ways and means since the beginning of the Cold War

This article reappraises the two most-studied country cases of military outsourcing: the USA and the UK. It argues that the contemporary wave of military contracting stretches back to the beginning of the cold war and not only to the demobilisation of armies in the 1990s or the neoliberal reforms introduced since the 1980s. It traces the political, technological and ideational developments that laid the groundwork for these reforms and practices since the early cold war and account for its endurance today. Importantly, it argues that a persistent gap between strategic objectives and resources, i.e. the challenge to reconcile ends and means, is an underlying driver of military contracting in both countries. Contemporary contracting is thus most closely tied to military support functions in support of wider foreign and defence political objectives. Security services in either state may not have been outsourced so swiftly, if at all, without decades of experience in outsourcing military logistics functions and the resultant vehicles, processes and familiarities with public-private partnerships. The article thus provides a wider and deeper understanding of the drivers of contractualisation, thereby improving our understanding of both its historical trajectory and the determinants of its present and potential futures.     

Nuclear opportunism: A theory of how states use nuclear weapons in international politics

How do states use nuclear weapons to achieve their goals in international politics? Nuclear weapons can influence state decisions about a range of strategic choices relating to military aggression, the scope of foreign policy objectives, and relations with allies. The article offers a theory to explain why emerging nuclear powers use nuclear weapons to facilitate different foreign policies: becoming more or less aggressive; providing additional support to allies or proxies, seeking independence from allies; or expanding the state’s goals in international politics. I argue that a state’s choices depend on the presence of severe territorial threats or an ongoing war, the presence of allies that provide for the state’s security, and whether the state is increasing in relative power. The conclusion discusses implications of the argument for our understanding of nuclear weapons and the history of proliferation, and nonproliferation policy today.     

The Trump effect downunder: U.S. allies,Australian strategic culture,and the politics of path dependence

Donald Trump’s election precipitated a debate in Australia about the value of retaining close alliance ties with the United States. Similar dynamics are discernible in other U.S. allies as the negative impact of Trump administration policies becomes clearer. Yet despite this “Trump effect,” we argue Australia is unlikely to distance itself from the United States because at the core of Australia’s strategic culture is a very positive “cultural orientation” toward the United States that is highly institutionalized in treaties, formal bilateral ties, Track 2 diplomacy, and public opinion. Such institutionalized ties have powerful path dependent effects. Accordingly, we conclude that the Trump effect does not constitute a powerful enough “exogenous shock” to move Australia off its well-worn grand-strategic path. But this alliance relationship is marked by both high cultural affinity and high institutionalization: American policy-makers should seriously consider whether other U.S. allies can tolerate similar levels of “stress.”     

Landmarks in defense literature

SOE in France: An Account of the Work of the Special Operations Executive in France 1940-1944. By M. R. D. FOOT. Her Majesty' Stationary Office, London, 550 pp., 1966. Second impression with amendments 1986.     

Surrogate duality in a branch-and-bound procedure

Recent research has led to several surrogate multiplier search procedures for use in a primal branch-and-bound procedure. As single constrained integer programming problems, the surrogate subproblems are also solved via branch-and-bound. This paper develops the inner play between the surrogate subproblem and the primal branch-and-bound trees which can be exploited to produce a number of computational efficiencies. Most important is a restarting procedure which precludes the need to solve numerous surrogate subproblems at each node of a primal branch-and-bound tree. Empirical evidence suggests that this procedure greatly reduces total computation time.