A continuous game of ambush

The article considers a two-person competitive problem in which a traveller wishes to choose a path across a rectangle from left to right in such a way as to avoid being ambushed by his adversary who has placed obstacles within the rectangle. Our results supplement those that have already been obtained by Ruckle and they indicate that, under certain conditions, the players need to adopt rather sophisticated strategies if they are to act optimally. This suggests that a complete solution to the problem could be difficult.     

On estimating population characteristics from record-breaking observations II. Nonparametric results

Consider an experiment in which only record-breaking values (e.g., values smaller than all previous ones) are observed. The data available may be represented as X₁,K₁,X₂,K₂, …, where X₁,X₂, … are successive minima and K₁,K₂, … are the numbers of trials needed to obtain new records. Such data arise in life testing and stress testing and in industrial quality-control experiments. When only a single sequence of random records are available, efficient estimation of the underlying distribution F is possible only in a parametric framework (see Samaniego and Whitaker [9]). In the present article we study the problem of estimating certain population quantiles nonparametrically from such data. Furthermore, under the assumption that the process of observing random records can be replicated, we derive and study the nonparametric maximum-likelihood estimator F̂ of F. We establish the strong uniform consistency of this estimator as the number of replications grows large, and identify its asymptotic distribution theory. The performance of F̂ is compared to that of two possible competing estimators.     

Unblocking inertia: US-Russian nuclear arms control and missile defenses

The United States and Russia, in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and destabilization of Ukraine, seem to have ditched entirely the “reset” in their political relations. Despite this odor of Cold War redux, there remain the opportunities and necessities for renewed attention to strategic nuclear arms control as between the two governments. US and NATO missile defenses as planned for European deployment figure into this equation, although in somewhat unpredictable ways, given technological uncertainties in existing and foreseeable defenses, as well as the possibility of improved delivery systems for offensive conventional or nuclear weapons.     

Decomposing inventory routing problems with approximate value functions

We present a time decomposition for inventory routing problems. The methodology is based on valuing inventory with a concave piecewise linear function and then combining solutions to single‐period subproblems using dynamic programming techniques. Computational experiments show that the resulting value function accurately captures the inventory's value, and solving the multiperiod problem as a sequence of single‐period subproblems drastically decreases computational time without sacrificing solution quality. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Estimating component characteristics from system failure‐time data

Suppose that failure times are available from a random sample of N systems of a given, fixed design with components which have i.i.d. lifetimes distributed according to a common distribution F. The inverse problem of estimating F from data on observed system lifetimes is considered. Using the known relationship between the system and component lifetime distributions via signature and domination theory, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator _N(t) of the component survival function (t) is identified and shown to be accessible numerically in any application of interest. The asymptotic distribution of _N(t) is also identified, facilitating the construction of approximate confidence intervals for (t) for N sufficiently large. Simulation results for samples of size N = 50 and N = 100 for a collection of five parametric lifetime models demonstrate the utility of the recommended estimator. Possible extensions beyond the i.i.d. framework are discussed in the concluding section. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010