On the reliability,availability and bayes confidence intervals for multicomponent systems

The problem of computing reliability and availability and their associated confidence limits for multi-component systems has appeared often in the literature. This problem arises where some or all of the component reliabilities and availabilities are statistical estimates (random variables) from test and other data. The problem of computing confidence limits has generally been considered difficult and treated only on a case-by-case basis. This paper deals with Bayes confidence limits on reliability and availability for a more general class of systems than previously considered including, as special cases, series-parallel and standby systems applications. The posterior distributions obtained are exact in theory and their numerical evaluation is limited only by computing resources, data representation and round-off in calculations. This paper collects and generalizes previous results of the authors and others. The methods presented in this paper apply both to reliability and availability analysis. The conceptual development requires only that system reliability or availability be probabilities defined in terms acceptable for a particular application. The emphasis is on Bayes Analysis and the determination of the posterior distribution functions. Having these, the calculation of point estimates and confidence limits is routine. This paper includes several examples of estimating system reliability and confidence limits based on observed component test data. Also included is an example of the numerical procedure for computing Bayes confidence limits for the reliability of a system consisting of N failure independent components connected in series. Both an exact and a new approximate numerical procedure for computing point and interval estimates of reliability are presented. A comparison is made of the results obtained from the two procedures. It is shown that the approximation is entirely sufficient for most reliability engineering analysis.     

Algorithms for minimizing total cost,bottleneck time and bottleneck shipment in transportation problems

We consider the transportation problem of determining nonnegative shipments from a set of m warehouses with given availabilities to a set of n markets with given requirements. Three objectives are defined for each solution: (i) total cost, TC, (ii) bottleneck time, BT (i.e., maximum transportation time for a positive shipment), and (iii) bottleneck shipment, SB (i.e., total shipment over routes with bottleneck time). An algorithm is given for determining all efficient (pareto-optimal or nondominated) (TC, BT) solution pairs. The special case of this algorithm when all the unit cost coefficients are zero is shown to be the same as the algorithms for minimizing BT. provided by Szwarc and Hammer. This algorithm for minimizing BT is shown to be computationally superior. Transportation or assignment problems with m=n=100 average about a second on the UNIVAC 1108 computer (FORTRAN V)) to the threshold algorithm for minimizing BT. The algorithm is then extended to provide not only all the efficient (TC, BT) solution pairs but also, for each such BT, all the efficient (TC, SB) solution pairs. The algorithms are based on the cost operator theory of parametric programming for the transportation problem developed by the authors.     

The continuous multiple-modular design problem

In this article we extend our previous work on the continuous single-module design problem to the multiple-module case. It is assumed that there is a fixed cost associated with each additional module used. The Kuhn–Tucker conditions characterize local optima among which there is a global optimum. Modules are associated with partitions and a special class, guillotine partitions, are characterized. Branch-and-bound, partial enumeration, and heuristic procedures for finding optimum or good guillotine partitions are discussed and illustrated with examples.     

An operator theory of parametric programming for the transportation problem-II

This paper investigates the effect on the optimum solution of a (capacitated) transportation problem when the data of the problem (the rim conditions-i. e., the warehouse supplies and market demands-, the per unit transportation costs and the upper bounds) are continuously varied as a (linear) function of a single parameter. Operators that effect the transformation of optimum solution associated with such data changes, are shown to be a product of basis preserving operators (described in the earlier paper) that operate on a sequence of adjacent basis structures. Algorithms are provided for both rim and cost operators. The paper concludes with a discussion of the economic and managerial interpretations of the operators.     

Mathematical control theory solution of an interactive accounting flows model

In this paper we have applied the mathematical control theory to the accounting network flows, where the flow rates are constrained by linear inequalities. The optimal control policy is of the “generalized bang-bang” variety which is obtained by solving at each instant in time a linear programming problem whose objective function parameters are determined by the “switching function” which is derived from the Hamiltonian function. The interpretation of the adjoint variables of the control problem and the dual evaluators of the linear programming problem demonstrates an interesting interaction of the cross section phase of the problem, which is characterized by linear programming, and the dynamic phase of the problem, which is characterized by control theory.     

An operator theory of parametric programming for the generalized transportation problem: II Rim,cost and bound operators

This paper investigates the effect on the optimum solution of a capacitated generalized transportation problem when certain data of the problem are continuously varied as a linear function of a single parameter. First the rim conditions, then the cost coefficients, and finally the cell upper bounds are varied parametrically and the effect on the optimal solution, the associated change in costs and the dual changes are derived. Finally the effect of simultaneous changes in both cost coefficients and rim conditions are investigated. Bound operators that effect changes in upper bounds are shown to be equivalent to rim operators. The discussion in this paper is limited to basis preserving operators for which the changes in the data are such that the optimum bases are preserved.     

An operator theory of parametric programming for the generalized transportation problem-III-weight operators

This paper investigates the effect on the optimum solution of a capacitated generalized transportation problem when any coefficient of any row constraint is continuously varied as a linear function of a single parameter. The entire analysis is divided into three parts. Results are derived relative to the cases when the coefficient under consideration is associated, to a cell where the optimal solution in that cell attains its lower bound or its upper bound. The discussion relative to the case when the coefficient under consideration is associated to a cell in the optimal basis is given in two parts. The first part deals with the primal changes of the optimal solution while the second part is concerned with the dual changes. It is shown that the optimal cost varies in a nonlinear fashion when the coefficient changes linearly in certain cases. The discussion in this paper is limited to basis-preserving operators for which the changes in the data are such that the optimum bases are preserved. Relevant algorithms and illustrations are provided throughout the paper.