A note on the sensitivity of navy first term reenlistment to bonuses,unemployment and relative wages

Multiple regression analysis of first term reenlistment rates over the period 1968–1977 confirms previous findings that reenlistment is highly sensitive to unemployment at the time of reenlistment and shortly after enlistment, almost four years earlier. Bonuses, particularly lump sum bonuses, were also shown to be a significant determinant of reenlistment.     

Storage problems when demand is “all or nothing”

An inventory of physical goods or storage space (in a communications system buffer, for instance) often experiences “all or nothing” demand: if a demand of random size D can be immediately and entirely filled from stock it is satisfied, but otherwise it vanishes. Probabilistic properties of the resulting inventory level are discussed analytically, both for the single buffer and for multiple buffer problems. Numerical results are presented.     

Techniques for establishing ergodic and recurrence properties of continuous-valued markov chains

We present techniques for classifying Markov chains with a continuous state space as either ergodic or recurrent. These methods are analogous to those of Foster for countable space chains. The theory is presented in the first half of the paper, while the second half consists of examples illustrating these techniques. The technique for proving ergodicity involves, in practice, three steps: showing that the chain is irreducible in a suitable sense; verifying that the mean hitting times on certain (usually bounded) sets are bounded, by using a “mean drift” criterion analogous to that of Foster; and finally, checking that the chain is such that bounded mean hitting times for these sets does actually imply ergodicity. The examples comprise a number of known and new results: using our techniques we investigate random walks, queues with waiting-time-dependent service times, dams with general and random-release rules, the s-S inventory model, and feedback models.     

Monotone optimal preventive maintenance policies for stochastically failing equipment

This paper examines various models for maintenance of a machine operating subject to stochastic deterioration. Three alternative models are presented for the deterioration process. For each model, in addition to the replacement decision, the option exists of performing preventive maintenance. The effect of this maintenance is to “slow” the deterioration process. With an appropriate reward structure imposed on the processes, the models are formulated as continuous time Markov decision processes. the optimality criterion being the maximization of expected discounted reward earned over an infinite time horizon. For each model conditions are presented under which the optimal maintenance policy exhibits the following monotonic structure. First, there exists a control limit rule for replacement. That is, there exists a number i* such that if the state of machine deterioration exceeds i* the optimal policy replaces the machine by a new machine. Secondly, prior to replacement the optimal level of preventive maintenance is a nonincreasing function of the state of machine deterioration. The conditions which guarantee this result have a cost/benefit interpretation.     

The search for an intelligent evader concealed in one of an arbitrary number of regions

This paper considers the search for an evader concealed in one of an arbitrary number of regions, each of which is characterized by its detection probability. We shall be concerned here with the double-sided problem in which the evader chooses this probability secretly, although he may not subsequently move; his aim is to maximize the expected time to detection, while the searcher attempts to minimize it. The situation where two regions are involved has been studied previously and reported on recently. This paper represents a continuation of this analysis. It is normally true that as the number of regions increases, optimal strategies for both searcher and evader are progressively more difficult to determine precisely. However it will be shown that, generally, satisfactory approximations to each are almost as easily derived as in the two region problem, and that the accuracy of such approximations is essentially independent of the number of regions. This means that so far as the evader is concerned, characteristics of the two-region problem may be used to assess the accuracy of such approximate strategies for problems of more than two regions.     

Lanchester attrition of interpenetrating forces

To approximate the solutions of detailed simulations of interpenetrating forces (or possibly to assist in curtailing Monte Carlo calculations), this article provides solutions to a simple problem assuming that the speed of advance is constant; the only interactions are local; Lanchester's linear or square law applies; force distributions are continuous if not initially uniform in depth. The resultant partial differential equations are solvable (1) in closed form if attrition is minimal or (2) with pain when attrition is sufficient to annihilate the leading edge of a force. This is exemplified only for the square law, where one must solve an integrodifferential equation for an ancillary function. A general solution is given for either law, and for the latter case a more complete one, assuming that initial force distributions are uniform. Useful properties of an unusual class of Bessel functions needed for this analysis are given in an appendix. Copies of computer programs are available.