Optimal admission pricing and service rate control of an M[x]/M/s queue with reneging

In this article we consider the optimal control of an M^[X]/M/s queue, s ≧ 1. In addition to Poisson bulk arrivals we incorporate a reneging function. Subject to control are an admission price p and the service rate μ. Thus, through p, balking response is induced. When i customers are present a cost h(i,μ,p) per unit time is incurred, discounted continuously. Formulated as a continuous time Markov decision process, conditions are given under which the optimal admission price and optimal service rate are each nondecreasing functions of i. In Section 4 we indicate how the infinite state space may be truncated to a finite state space for computational purposes.     

Spares stocking policies for repairable items with dependent repair times

This paper analyzes the problem of determining desirable spares inventory levels for repairable items with dependent repair times. The problem is important for repairable products such as aircraft engines which can have very large investment in spares inventory levels. While existing models can be used to determine optimal inventory spares levels when repair times are independent, the practical considerations of limited repair shop capacity and prioritized shop dispatching rules combine to make repair times not independent of one another. In this research a simulation model of a limited capacity repair facility with prioritized scheduling is used to explore a variety of heuristic approaches to the spares stocking decision. The heuristics are also compared with use of a model requiring independent repair times (even though that assumption is not valid here). The results show that even when repair time dependencies are present, the performance of a model which assumes independent repair times is quite good.     

An analysis of single item inventory systems with returns

Inventory systems with returns are systems in which there are units returned in a repairable state, as well as demands for units in a serviceable state, where the return and demand processes are independent. We begin by examining the control of a single item at a single location in which the stationary return rate is less than the stationary demand rate. This necessitates an occasional procurement of units from an outside source. We present a cost model of this system, which we assume is managed under a continuous review procurement policy, and develop a solution method for finding the policy parameter values. The key to the analysis is the use of a normally distributed random variable to approximate the steady-state distribution of net inventory. Next, we study a single item, two echelon system in which a warehouse (the upper echelon) supports N(N ? 1) retailers (the lower echelon). In this case, customers return units in a repairable state as well as demand units in a serviceable state at the retailer level only. We assume the constant system return rate is less than the constant system demand rate so that a procurement is required at certain times from an outside supplier. We develop a cost model of this two echelon system assuming that each location follows a continuous review procurement policy. We also present an algorithm for finding the policy parameter values at each location that is based on the method used to solve the single location problem.     

Scheduling of stochastic tasks on two parallel processors

We consider the problem of scheduling n tasks on two identical parallel processors. We show both in the case when the processing times for the n tasks are independent exponential random variables, and when they are independent hyperexponentials which are mixtures of two fixed exponentials, that the policy of performing tasks with longest expected processing time (LEPT) first minimizes the expected makespan, and that in the hyperexponential case the policy of performing tasks with shortest expected processing time (SEPT) first minimizes the expected flow time. The approach is simpler than the dynamic programming approach recently employed by Bruno and Downey.     

Slow failure: Understanding America’s quagmire in Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

The United States government has no organised way of thinking about war termination other than seeking decisive military victory. This implicit assumption is inducing three major errors. First, the United States tends to select military-centric strategies that have low probabilities of success. Second, the United States is slow to modify losing or ineffective strategies due to cognitive obstacles, internal frictions, and patron-client challenges with the host nation government. Finally, as the U.S. government tires of the war and elects to withdraw, bargaining asymmetries prevent successful transitions (building the host nation to win on its own) or negotiations.     

An exact algorithm for the maximal covering problem

This article develops a robust, exact algorithm for the maximal covering problem (MCP) using dual-based solution methods and greedy heuristics in branch and bound. Based on tests using randomly generated problems with problem parameters similar to those in the existing literature, the hybrid approach developed in this work appears to be effective over a wide range of MCP model parameters. The method is further validated on problems constructed from three real-world data sets. The extensive computational study compares the new method with other existing exact methods using problems that are as big, or larger than, those used in previous work on MCP. The results show that the proposed method is effective in most instances of MCP. In particular, it is shown that bounding schemes using Lagrangian relaxation are effective on MCP as a method of obtaining both exact and heuristic solutions. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On estimating survival for reliability models based on age-related stochastic comparisons

A new class of nonparametric reliability models is introduced and studied. A distribution is said to be better at age s than at age t (sBt) if the residual lifetime at age s is stochastically greater than or equal to the residual lifetime at age t. Applications to various forms of replacement policies, including the cannibalization of failed systems, are noted. For fixed s < t, the problem of estimating a survival curve assumed to belong to the sBt class is addressed using recursive methods. An sBt estimator is derived in closed form, and its uniform strong consistency at an optimal rate of convergence is demonstrated. A simulation study strongly supports the claim that the sBt estimator tends to outperform the empirical survivor function in small- and moderate-size samples. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Mixture selection for maximal stochastic performance

Methodology for the optimal selection of a mixture of components for the attainment of a required performance level is developed. This accommodates both cost and stochastic variation and is applied to gasoline blending. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Properties of a three-dimensional estimator

A large-scale simulation was conducted to investigate the statistical properties and the suitability of an estimator that estimates the coordinates of a three-dimensional source, according to the angles at which several observers view the source. The estimator uses a heuristical averaging method of estimates obtained from the solution of six two-dimensional problems that utilize line-to-point transformations. The estimator was found to be approximately unbiased with low standard deviations for normal error distributions. An effective and easy-to-use forecasting formula was developed to forecast the parameters of the distributions of the estimates. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.