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401.
India and China are the 2 most populous countries of the world; in the 1950s, both countries initiated a centrally planned program for rapid development within vastly differing political systems. China embarked India's policy encouraged only voluntary acceptance of family planning. In both cases, however, government involvement in population forms a part of comprehensive national planning. Both countries rely on a limited resource base and technological sophistication in order to alleviate mass poverty and misery. The political implications of population growth cannot be neatly isolated from those that are generated by social and economic forces of change in a society that is in a transitional stage of modernization and development. Development has not been an unmixed bleesing; population growth is one of its counterproductive outcomes. The development process has begun to draw increasing attention to hitherto neglected correlates of fertility decline, such as a reduction in infant mortality, universal education, improvement in women's status, and women's participation in economic activity outside the home, all of which eventually result in greater demand for family planning services. Both the Indian and Chinese models highlight the importance of taking the people into one's confidence; the response of the common people to official initiatives is critical in securing a reduction in fertility levels. China has adopted a 1 child family policy, yet it is unreasonable to expect that the Indian people would agree to a nationally prescribed family size norm below 2 children. The principal determinant of future population trends in both these countries is the course of their politics. The success of developing countries will be assured if the developed nations support their progress without being worried about their population growth, which is the result of their unavoidable failure to modernize their social and economic structures. 相似文献
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The present analysis deals with very high-dimensional data sets, each one containing close to 900 binary variables. Each data set corresponds to an evaluation of one complex system. These data sets are characterized by large portions of missing data where, moreover, the unobserved variables are not the same in different evaluations. Thus, the problems which confront the statistical analysis are those of multivariate binary data analysis, where the number of variables is much larger than the sample size and in which missing data varies with the sample elements. The variables, however, are hierarchically structured and the problem of clustering variables to groups does not exist in the present study. In order to motivate the statistical problem under consideration, the Marine Corps Combat Readiness Evaluation System (MCCRES) is described for infantry battalions and then used for exposition. The present article provides a statistical model for data from MCCRES and develops estimation and prediction procedures which utilize the dependence structure. The E-M algorithm is applied to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of the parameters of interest. Numerical examples illustrate the proposed methods. 相似文献
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John S. Maybee 《海军后勤学研究》1985,32(2):225-237
The mathematical theory necessary to solve combined arms models of military combat is presented here. We show how to apply the theory of positive operators to such models. Most of the results are purely qualitative in character showing that many properties of such systems are independent of the actual numerical values of the coefficients. Finally, we discuss in some detail an example of such a system. 相似文献
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