Bayesian selling problem with partial information

We introduce an optimal stopping problem for selling an asset when the fixed but unknown distribution of successive offers is from one of n possible distributions. The initial probabilities as to which is the true distribution are given and updated in a Bayesian manner as the successive offers are observed. After receiving an offer, the seller has to decide whether to accept the offer or continue to observe the next offer. Each time an offer is observed a fixed cost is incurred. We consider both the cases where recalling a past offer is allowed and where it is not allowed. For each case, a dynamic programming model and some heuristic policies are presented. Using simulation, the performances of the heuristic methods are evaluated and upper bounds on the optimal expected return are obtained. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

Statistical equivalency and optimality of simple step‐stress accelerated test plans for the exponential distribution

Accelerated life testing (ALT) is commonly used to obtain reliability information about a product in a timely manner. Several stress loading designs have been proposed and recent research interests have emerged concerning the development of equivalent ALT plans. Step‐stress ALT (SSALT) is one of the most commonly used stress loadings because it usually shortens the test duration and reduces the number of required test units. This article considers two fundamental questions when designing a SSALT and provides formal proofs in answer to each. Namely: (1) can a simple SSALT be designed so that it is equivalent to other stress loading designs? (2) when optimizing a multilevel SSALT, does it degenerate to a simple SSALT plan? The answers to both queries, under certain reasonable model assumptions, are shown to be a qualified YES. In addition, we provide an argument to support the rationale of a common practice in designing a SSALT, that is, setting the higher stress level as high as possible in a SSALT plan. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

介质涂覆SIW宽边纵缝分析

在波导缝隙天线表面涂敷介质层可以起到保护、隔热的作用,而且合理设计介质层参数能够改善天线的性能。利用等效关系,将介质涂覆SIW缝隙模型等效为介质涂覆矩形波导缝隙模型,利用矩量法研究了缝隙的特性,并和商业仿真软件HFSS的结果进行了比较,本文方法在保持较高计算精度的同时,将计算时间减少了一个量级。在此基础上,以单层、两层和三层介质涂敷为例,分析了涂覆介质的介电常数和厚度对缝隙谐振长度和归一化谐振导纳的影响,为涂敷介质层的优化设计奠定了基础。     

Bayesian sampling plans for exponential distributions with interval censored samples

This article studies the problem of designing Bayesian sampling plans (BSP) with interval censored samples. First, an algorithm for deriving the conventional BSP is proposed. The BSP is shown to possess some monotonicity. Based on the BSP and using the property of monotonicity, a new sampling plan modified by the curtailment procedure is proposed. The resulting curtailed Bayesian sampling plan (CBSP) can reduce the duration time of life test experiment, and it is optimal in the sense that its associated Bayes risk is smaller than the Bayes risk of the BSP if the cost of the duration time of life test experiment is considered. A numerical example to compute the Bayes risks of BSP and CBSP and related quantities is given. Also, a Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of the CBSP compared with the BSP. The simulation results demonstrate that our proposed CBSP has better performance because it has smaller risk. The CBSP is recommended. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 604–616, 2015     

利用对比度最优准则的压控振荡器调频非线性误差估计与校正方法

针对压控振荡器调频非线性误差的准确估计与校正问题,提出一种以一维距离像对比度最优为准则的自适应估计与校正方法。本方法建立引入温度变量的压控振荡器频率特性模型,并据此估计出某一温度值对应的调频非线性误差,在对中频回波进行误差补偿和一维脉压后,以一维距离像的对比度最优作为迭代收敛准则,实现调频非线性误差的最优估计与校正。仿真和实测数据结果表明,该方法充分考虑了温度因素对压控振荡器输出频率的影响,能够在不增加硬件复杂度的前提下,通过算法实现对调频非线性误差的估计、跟踪与补偿。与传统基于硬件电路进行估计或校正的方法相比,新方法无需由硬件组成闭环估计通道,且具有实时性强、运算量小、补偿精度高的优点,对于克服实际工程应用中压控振荡器器件的参数漂移问题具有重要指导意义。     

半自动输弹机模糊控制系统

针对某半自动输弹机系统实际的输弹过程,提出了模糊控制系统的控制方案,根据本输弹机系统的模型设计了模糊控制参数。运用Matlab/Simulink仿真软件分别对采用模糊控制的系统和采用普通PID控制算法的系统进行仿真,得到各系统的单位阶跃响应曲线图和抗干扰信号图。对输弹机进行上炮试验,对比采用模糊控制的系统和采用普通PID控制算法的系统的实验结果,得到采用模糊算法的输弹机系统的卡膛一致性能很好的满足要求,具有一定的实践意义。     

基于RBF神经网络的军事物流设施规模预测

确定合理的军事物流设施规模对于成功实施军事后勤保障十分重要。提出了基于RBF神经网络的军事物流设施规模预测模型的建模方法,该方法旨在确定军事物流设施规模与其影响因素之间的非线性关系;采用算例说明了基于RBF神经网络的军事物流设施规模预测的具体做法,对军事物流设施规模的确定具有指导意义。     

对提升武警“合训”院校教育质量的几点思考

如何快速提升教育质量,是武警“合训”院校教育当前所面临的一个重要课题。对此,必须将“严格选拔标准,为提升教育质量奠定基础;加强理想信念教育,筑牢学员扎根警营的意识;以任务为牵引,打牢学员履职尽责的军事素质基础;采取多种方法,激发学员学习的内在动力;突出领导管理能力培养,夯实学员的领导管理基础”等,作为“合训”学员培养的根本着力点。     

基于MPI+CUDA的异构并行可压缩流求解器

在CPU/GPU异构体系结构计算集群上,建立了基于MPI+CUDA的异构并行可压缩流求解器。讨论了异构结构上的可压缩流并行算法的并行模式,在CPU上执行计算密集度低、指令复杂的计算任务,在GPU上执行计算密集度高、指令单一的计算任务。通过数个算例,对比了异构并行计算和传统CPU并行计算计算结果和计算效率。将该算法运用于高超声速流动的数值模拟中,数值结果显示,基于MPI+CUDA的异构并行可压缩流求解器鲁棒性好,计算效率较CPU同构并行计算提高10倍以上。     

弹道导弹关机点状态估计的指数加权递归最小二乘方法

在双星预警条件下,将指数加权递归最小二乘算法应用于目标关机点状态估计问题中。通过引入加权因子对目标助推段运动的局部拟线性特性进行描述,从而在一定程度上克服了一般的线性多项式模型难以准确刻画整个助推段运动的难题。通过对助推段目标动力学特性的分析,考察了目标在垂直射面方向上的运动特性。在此基础上,提出了一种更为准确的助推段运动模型。仿真算例表明,所提出的关机点状态估计方法相对于传统的方法具有一定的优越性。