A reliability model with states of partial operation

This article generalizes the classical dichotomic reliability model to include states of partial operation. The generalized model can be considered as a special case of a general jump process. Both continuous and discrete state spaces are included. The relationship to cumulative damage shock models is discussed. Properties of the model are investigated and these are illustrated via examples. The equivalence of three forms of component independence is proved, but this equivalence does not generalize to the property of zero covariance. Alternative forms of series and parallel connections and the effect of component replacement are discussed.     

An application of empirical bayes techniques to the simultaneous estimation of many probabilities

Consider the following situation: Each of N different combat units is presented with a number of requirements to satisfy, each requirement being classified into one of K mutually exclusive categories. For each unit and each category, an estimate of the probability of that unit satisfying any requirement in that category is desired. The problem can be generally stated as that of estimating N different K-dimensional vectors of probabilities based upon a corresponding set of K-dimensional vectors of sample proportions. An empirical Bayes model is formulated and applied to an example from the Marine Corps Combat Readiness Evaluation System (MCCRES). The EM algorithm provides a convenient method of estimating the prior parameters. The Bayes estimates are compared to the ordinary estimates, i.e., the sample proportions, by means of cross validation, and the Bayes estimates are shown to provide considerable improvement.     

Adjacent vertices on transportation polytopes

To solve linear fixed charge problems with Murty's vertex ranking algorithm, one uses a simplex algorithm and a procedure to determine the vertices adjacent to a given vertex. In solving fixed charge transportation problems, the simplex algorithm simplifies to the stepping-stone algorithm. To find adjacent vertices on transportation polytopes, we present a procedure which is a simplification of a more general procedure for arbitrary polytopes.     

An empirical bayes estimator for the scale parameter of the two-parameter weibull distribution

An empirical Bayes estimator is given for the scale parameter in the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The scale parameter is assumed to vary randomly throughout a sequence of experiments according to a common, but unknown, prior distribution. The shape parameter is assumed to be known, however, it may be different in each experiment. The estimator is obtained by means of a continuous approximation to the unknown prior density function. Results from Monte Carlo simulation are reported which show that the estimator has smaller mean-squared errors than the usual maximum-likelihood estimator.     

Suboptimal algorithms for the quadratic assignment problem

The idea of combining relatively simple continuous methods with discrete procedures is used for the construction of suboptimal algorithms for quadratic assignment problems. Depending on the nature of the special problem these steps may vary in complexity. The simplest procedures require minimum storage space and result in tolerable computation times. Different choices of parameters and random variations may be used in order to obtain statistical distributions of suboptimal solutions. Computational results for sample problems indicate improvements on results of Steinberg, Gilmore, and Hillier and Connors.     

The effect of correlated exponential service times on single server tandem queues

An investigation via simulation of system performance of two stage queues in series (single server, first-come, first-served) under the assumption of correlated exponential service times indicates that the system's behavior is quite sensitive to departures from the traditional assumption of mutually independent service times, especially at higher utilizations. That service times at the various stages of a tandem queueing system for a given customer should be correlated is intuitively appealing and apparently not at all atypical. Since tandem queues occur frequently, e.g. production lines and the logistics therewith associated, it is incumbent on both the practitioner and the theoretician that they be aware of the marked effects that may be induced by correlated service times. For the case of infinite interstage storage, system performance is improved by positive correlation and impaired by negative correlation. This change in system performance is reversed however for zero interstage storage and depends on the value of the utilization rate for the case where interstage storage equals unity. The effect due to correlation is shown to be statistically significant using spectral analytic techniques. For correlation equal unity and infinite interstage storage, results are provided for two through twenty-five stages in series to suggest how adding stages affects system performance for ρ>0. In this extreme case of correlation, adding stages has an effect on system performance which depends markedly on the utilization rate. Recursive formulae for the waiting time per customer for the cases of zero, one, and infinite interstage storage are derived.     

A good simple percentile estimator of the weibull shape parameter for use when all three parameters are unknown

In this paper we consider a simple three-order-statistic asymptotically unbiased estimator of the Weibull shape parameter c for the case in which all three parameters are unknown. Optimal quantiles that minimize the asymptotic variance of this estimator, c? are determined and shown to depend only on the true (unknown) shape parameter value c and in a rather insensitive way. Monte Carlo studies further verified that, in practice where the true shape parameter c is unknown, using always c? with the optimal quantities that correspond to c = 2.0 produces estimates, c?, remarkably close to the theoretical optimal. A second stage estimation procedure, namely recalculating c? based on the optimal quantiles corresponding to c?, was not worth the additional effort. Benchmark simulation comparisons were also made with the best percentile estimator of Zanakis [20] and with a new estimator of Wyckoff, Bain and Engelhardt [18], one that appears to be the best of proposed closed-form estimators but uses all sample observations. The proposed estimator, c?, should be of interest to practitioners having limited resources and to researchers as a starting point for more accurate iterative estimation procedures. Its form is independent of all three Weibull parameters and, for not too large sample sizes, it requires the first, last and only one other (early) ordered observation. Practical guidelines are provided for choosing the best anticipated estimator of shape for a three-parameter Weibull distribution under different circumstances.     

Optimal path finding in direction,location, and time dependent environments

This article examines optimal path finding problems where cost function and constraints are direction, location, and time dependent. Recent advancements in sensor and data‐processing technology facilitate the collection of detailed real‐time information about the environment surrounding a ground vehicle, an airplane, or a naval vessel. We present a navigation model that makes use of such information. We relax a number of assumptions from existing literature on path‐finding problems and create an accurate, yet tractable, model suitable for implementation for a large class of problems. We present a dynamic programming model which integrates our earlier results for direction‐dependent, time and space homogeneous environment, and consequently, improves its accuracy, efficiency, and run‐time. The proposed path finding model also addresses limited information about the surrounding environment, control‐feasibility of the considered paths, such as sharpest feasible turns a vehicle can make, and computational demands of a time‐dependent environment. To demonstrate the applicability and performance of our path‐finding algorithm, computational experiments for a short‐range ship routing in dynamic wave‐field problem are presented. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

Newsvendor problems with sequentially revealed demand information

This article analyzes a capacity/inventory planning problem with a one‐time uncertain demand. There is a long procurement leadtime, but as some partial demand information is revealed, the firm is allowed to cancel some of the original capacity reservation at a certain fee or sell off some inventory at a lower price. The problem can be viewed as a generalization of the classic newsvendor problem and can be found in many applications. One key observation of the analysis is that the dynamic programming formulation of the problem is closely related to a recursion that arises in the study of a far more complex system, a series inventory system with stochastic demand over an infinite horizon. Using this equivalence, we characterize the optimal policy and assess the value of the additional demand information. We also extend the analysis to a richer model of information. Here, demand is driven by an underlying Markov process, representing economic conditions, weather, market competition, and other environmental factors. Interestingly, under this more general model, the connection to the series inventory system is different. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2012     

A theoretical justification for an increasing average failure rate strength distribution in fibrous composites

A general model for the failure of fibrous composite materials is described. It is shown to contain some of the well-known models in the literature. The composite material is viewed as a coherent system of independent identically distributed component strengths. Under the assumption that the applied load is redistributed “homotonically” to the unfailed components upon the failure of a component (an individual fiber segment) and that the distributions of component strengths are IFRA, it is shown that the system (composite) strength distribution is also IFRA. Examples are given using carbon reinforced composite data to illustrate the IFRA property.